General Studies Paper-2

Context: India’s Smart Cities Mission has the potential to transform urban centers into hubs of innovation, economic power, and sustainability.

Key Features

• Objective: Enhance urban living by providing core infrastructure, a clean environment, and a decent quality of life.
  • Drive economic growth and improve the quality of life through social, economic, physical, and institutional development.
• Operational Framework:
  • Selection Process: 100 cities were selected through a two-stage competition.
  • Implementation: Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) handle project execution.
• Centrally Sponsored Scheme: ₹48,000 crore allocated by the central government over five years (₹100 crore per city annually).
  • States or Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) must match funding.
  • Additional resources raised via municipal bonds, government programs, and public-private partnerships (PPP).
• Timeline: Mission extended to March 31, 2025, for completion.

Achievements

• Over 8,000 projects launched, with an investment of ₹6 lakh crore.
• As of July 2024:
  • 90% of projects completed (7,188 projects).
  • 75% of projects completed in 75 cities.
  • 17 cities achieved 100% project completion.

Need for Smart Cities

• Urban Growth: 31% of India’s population lives in urban areas, contributing 63% of GDP (Census 2011).
  • By 2030, urban areas are expected to house 40% of the population and contribute 75% of GDP.
• Comprehensive Development: Sustainable growth requires infrastructure development in physical, institutional, social, and economic sectors.

Challenges

• Implementation Hurdles: 10% of projects are delayed due to legal issues, clearances, and resource challenges.
• Technological Barriers: Reliance on advanced technologies like IoT faces challenges in areas lacking basic infrastructure.
• Funding and Engagement: Difficulty in securing funds, involving the private sector, and ensuring citizen participation.
• Integration Issues: Achieving seamless integration of systems remains a complex task.

Conclusion and Way Forward

• The Smart Cities Mission holds transformative potential to propel India toward becoming a $10 trillion economy. Its success depends on overcoming challenges through:
  • Innovative funding mechanisms.
  • Enhanced private sector collaboration.
  • Citizen-centric policies.
  • Efficient use of technology and infrastructure.
  • Ultimately, the success of smart cities will be measured not only by the number of completed projects but by the lives transformed and the opportunities created. Bold action and visionary thinking will be critical for shaping India’s urban future.

General Studies Paper-3

Context: US President Donald Trump decided to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement again — having first done so in 2017.

About

• On his first day in office, Trump also ordered an immediate revocation of all climate finance commitments made by the US.
• He has promised to reverse some of the climate-friendly energy policies of the last few years, and reiterated his commitment to extracting more oil and gas to meet America’s energy requirements.
• Background:
  • Trump’s predecessor (and successor) Joe Biden had taken the US back into the Paris Agreement in 2021.
  • The US had not become a party to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol as well, having refused to ratify it after signing on to it.
• Reasons for the Trump’s Policy:
  • He opined that the international regulations on climate change have been unfair to the US because similar restrictions are not placed on China, on account of it being classified as a developing country.

Implications

• Emission Targets: US has set the target to reduce its emissions by 50-52% by 2030 (from 2005 levels) and by 62-66% by 2035.
  • As of now, the US is not on track to meet its 2030 emissions goal — and four years of Trump will make it almost certain that these are not achieved.
• Second Largest Emittor: The US is the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases. The objective of the Paris Agreement cannot be achieved without its full participation in the common effort to reduce emissions.
• Increase in Fossil fuel Production: Trump has been explicit about drilling new oil wells and gas fields this time, as a result fossil fuel production could rise in the next four years.
• Funding of Climate Finance: It will further squeeze in funds available for climate action for the developing countries.
  • The US has the greatest influence on mobilising private and international finance, Trump’s policies could see this source drying up as well.
• Impact on other countries: Experts fear other countries, especially China, could use it as an excuse to ease off their own efforts to curb carbon emissions.

Conclusion

• Global Warming: The world is now long-term 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.3 degrees Celsius) above mid-1800s temperatures.
  • Global temperatures last year passed the warming mark of 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, and it was the warmest year on record.
• US Share in Global Warming: According to the Global Carbon Project, the U.S. is responsible for nearly 22% of the carbon dioxide put in the atmosphere since 1950.
  • The US has the largest share of historical emissions, and therefore also the greatest responsibility to clean up.
  • The wildfires in Los Angeles are the latest reminder that Americans, like everyone else, are affected by worsening climate change.
  • America could stay focused on growing the clean energy industry and technologies for driving down energy costs.

General Studies Paper-2

Context: External affairs minister S Jaishankar has met Japanese and Australian counterparts in Washington and reviewed bilateral ties as well Quad developments.

Key Priorities for Jaishankar’s Washington Visit

• Early Modi-Trump Meeting: Building on the strong rapport between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump which was established during Trump’s first term.
  • Focus is on strengthening cooperation on defense, energy security, and counter-terrorism.
  • Setting the tone for high-level bilateral engagements in the coming years.
• Quad Summit and Regional Security: Strengthening of the Quad by reinforcing collaboration among India, the U.S., Japan, and Australia to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific.
  • This would align with India’s Act East Policy, promoting peace and connectivity in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Trade and Economic Collaboration: Addressing long-standing tariff issues, including U.S. duties on Indian steel and aluminum. Advocating for fair trade practices to boost bilateral commerce.
• Immigration and Talent Mobility: Advocating for smoother visa processing and addressing restrictions affecting Indian professionals.
  • Engaging the Indian Diaspora by strengthening ties with the Indian-American community, a vital link in India-U.S. relations.

Strategic Significance of the Agenda

• Addressing Global Geopolitical Shifts: Counterbalancing China’s growing assertiveness in Asia, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
  • Strengthening the Quad to promote regional peace and stability.
• Economic Synergy: Expanding collaboration in emerging areas like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and cybersecurity to capitalize India’s position as a global tech hub.
• Shared Democratic Values: Reinforcing mutual commitment to democracy and a rules-based international order.

Challenges Ahead

• Trade and Tariff Disputes: Persistent disagreements on commodity tariffs and non-tariff barriers.
• Immigration Restrictions: Navigating U.S. visa caps and delays for Indian professionals.
• Geopolitical Rivalries: Divergent stances on global conflicts, such as Russia, may strain cooperation.
• Technology Barriers: Restrictions on sensitive technology transfers to India impact defense collaboration.
• Domestic Pressures: Political and economic challenges in both nations may influence policy priorities.

Way Forward

• Streamlining Trade Agreements: Reducing barriers to ensure mutual economic benefits.
• Advancing Immigration Reforms: Collaborating on frameworks to facilitate talent mobility and visa efficiency.
• Enhancing Quad Engagement: Strengthening regional connectivity and maritime security initiatives.
• Promoting Renewable Energy Collaboration: Exploring joint ventures in clean and sustainable energy technologies.
• Frequent High-Level Dialogues: Establishing regular interactions to address emerging opportunities and challenges.

Conclusion

• External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s Washington agenda underscores a strategic vision for bolstering India-U.S. relations.
• By addressing critical issues like trade, immigration, and regional security, the agenda seeks to transform challenges into opportunities for mutual growth. This comprehensive approach reaffirms India’s commitment to a robust partnership with the U.S., ensuring a future of shared prosperity and global leadership.

General Studies Paper-3

Context: As per research, published in the journal Nature Food, the share of the population that cannot afford a healthy diet has been on the rise.

It was conducted under the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, led by United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition.

Major Highlights

• The study evaluates 42 key indicators of food systems, categorised into five themes:
  • Diets, nutrition and health;
  • Environment, natural resources and production;
  • Livelihoods, poverty and equity;
  • Resilience;
• Of the 42 indicators, 20 have been trending in a desirable direction since 2000.
• There is also a rise in the population experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity.
• These indicators, which have worsened globally, pull down the progress needed to achieve SDGs and other global targets.

Global Targets

• Goal 2 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is all about creating a world free of hunger by 2030.
• The 2024 Global Hunger Index score for the world is 18.3, with 42 countries still experiencing alarming or serious hunger.
  • Hunger is most severe in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia where the crisis has soared to humanitarian levels.
• Little progress has been made on reducing hunger since 2016, and the prospects for achieving Zero Hunger by the target date of 2030 are grim.

Status in India

• India has been ranked 105th out of 127 countries in the Global Hunger Index (GHI) 2024, placing it in the “serious” category for hunger levels.
• The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023 report states that around 224 million people in India faced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2021-22.

India’s Efforts to achieve zero hunger by 2030

• Mid Day Meal Programme: The Programme aims to boost enrolment, retention, and attendance while improving the nutritional status of children in government, local body, and government-aided schools.
• Food Fortification: The government promotes fortified rice, wheat flour, and edible oils as part of the public distribution system.
• The National Food Security Act, 2013: The Act provides for coverage of upto 75% of the rural population and upto 50% of the urban population for receiving subsidized foodgrains under Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS).
• Poshan Tracker: The Ministry of Women and Child Development developed the Poshan Tracker ICT application as a key governance tool.
  • It uses WHO’s expanded tables with day-based z-scores to dynamically assess stunting, wasting, underweight, and obesity in children based on height, weight, gender, and age.
• Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana was launched to alleviate hardships faced by the poor due to economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 outbreak.
• SakshamAnganwadi and Poshan 2.0 includes key schemes such as the POSHAN Abhiyaan, Anganwadi Services and Scheme for Adolescent Girls as direct targeted interventions to address the problem of malnutrition in the country.

General Studies Paper -3

Context: India has emerged as one of the world’s most dynamic startup ecosystems, becoming a global hub for innovation, entrepreneurship, and technological advancement.

• However, to become the world’s leading startup ecosystem, several challenges must be overcome, and opportunities must be harnessed.

Current Status of India’s Startups

• Growth and Innovation: India, with over 1.59 lakh startups recognized by DPIIT as of January 15, 2025, has firmly established itself as the third-largest startup ecosystem globally, after the U.S. and China. Over 120 startups have crossed the billion-dollar valuation mark.
• Investment Landscape: India’s startups attracted $25 billion in venture capital funding in 2022, making it a preferred destination for global investors. Despite a slowdown in 2023 due to global economic uncertainty, sectors like SaaS (Software as a Service) and climate tech continue to receive significant funding.
• Government Support: Government initiatives like Startup India, Digital India, and Atmanirbhar Bharat have created a supportive framework for entrepreneurs. Key measures include tax exemptions, faster patent processing, and easier regulatory compliance. The 2023 introduction of a ₹10,000 crore Fund of Funds for Startups (FFS) and the Bharat Startup Knowledge Access Registry (BHASKAR) aim to enhance access to capital and collaboration.
• Regional Highlights:
  • Expansion: Nearly 50% of startups now originate from Tier II and Tier III cities, with emerging hubs like Indore, Jaipur, and Ahmedabad.
  • Tamil Nadu: With a $28 billion ecosystem growing at 23%, Chennai alone hosts about 5,000 startups, significantly contributing to job creation.
  • Kerala: The state’s $1.7 billion startup ecosystem is growing at a compound annual rate of 254%, showcasing its ability to hire tech talent cost-effectively.

Challenges Faced by Indian Startups

• Funding Crunch: The global economic slowdown and rising interest rates have tightened venture capital inflows, leading to layoffs and operational cutbacks.
• Regulatory and Compliance Issues: Despite government support, startups face complex tax structures, compliance requirements, and regulatory uncertainties, including recent data protection laws and ESOP taxation policies.
• Scaling Challenges: Operational inefficiencies, lack of market adaptability, and inadequate infrastructure hinder scaling efforts for many startups.
• High Failure Rate: Over 90% of Indian startups fail within five years due to factors like poor product-market fit, inadequate financial planning, and an inability to adapt to consumer demands.
• Talent Acquisition and Retention: Competition for skilled talent, particularly in AI, machine learning, and cybersecurity, along with economic uncertainties, complicates retention efforts.

Suggested Measures

Strengthening Policy Frameworks:

• Simplifying Regulations: Streamline startup registration, funding approvals, and cross-border operations.
• IP Protection: Strengthen intellectual property frameworks to encourage R&D investments.
• Sector-Specific Support: Focus on key sectors like AI, deep tech, healthcare, and green technology through targeted policies.

Enhancing Access to Funding:

• Boost Domestic Investments: Encourage Indian investors, including pension and sovereign wealth funds, to support startups.
• Strengthen Public-Private Partnerships: Create large-scale funds focused on emerging ventures.
• Decentralized Funding: Promote angel networks and micro-investors in Tier II and III cities.

Building World-Class Infrastructure:

• Innovation Hubs: Establish tech parks and incubation centers with state-of-the-art facilities and mentorship.
• Digital Connectivity: Ensure high-speed internet access in rural and semi-urban areas.
• Logistics and Supply Chains: Develop efficient infrastructure to support scaling operations.

Nurturing a Skilled Workforce:

• STEM Education: Encourage technical and entrepreneurial education.
• Upskilling Programs: Collaborate with industry leaders for training in high-demand skills.
• Diversity and Inclusion: Enhance opportunities for women and marginalized communities in tech and entrepreneurship.

Fostering a Culture of Innovation:

• Strengthen R&D: Allocate more resources to university and private-sector research.
• Encourage Risk-Taking: Reduce societal stigmas around entrepreneurial failure.
• Leverage Domestic Challenges: Use issues like climate change and urbanization as innovation opportunities.

Global Collaboration and Market Expansion:

• Global Partnerships: Collaborate with international accelerators and governments.
• Ease Cross-Border Trade: Simplify export procedures.
• Diaspora Networks: Engage Indian entrepreneurs abroad to mentor and invest in domestic startups.

Promoting Sustainability:

• Green Tech Innovation: Foster renewable energy and circular economy startups.
• Eco-Friendly Policies: Incentivize ventures aligned with sustainability goals.
• Promoting Inclusivity and Diversity: Support initiatives like the Women Entrepreneurship Platform (WEP) by NITI Aayog and focus on agritech, edtech, and health-tech startups in rural areas.
• Building a Resilient Digital Economy: Startups must leverage India’s digital infrastructure frameworks like UPI and Aadhaar while capitalizing on emerging technologies such as 5G and AI. Cybersecurity and data protection are pivotal for gaining investor trust.

Conclusion and Way Forward

• India stands at a critical juncture, poised to lead the global startup revolution. Addressing challenges related to funding, skill development, innovation, and inclusivity is essential to strengthening the ecosystem.
• Collaboration between policymakers, investors, academia, and entrepreneurs will unlock India’s potential to transform into the world’s most vibrant startup ecosystem, creating jobs, fostering innovation, and driving economic growth.

General Studies Paper -2

Context: The Department of Telecommunications launched the vision document for the National Broadband Mission (NBM) 2.0.

• It aims to build upon the foundation laid by NBM 1.0 (2019-2024).

Broadband Connectivity in India

• In 2023, India had 83.22 crore broadband connections, with 79.98 crore being wireless and 3.23 crore being wireline.
• India witnessed a 200% increase in internet subscriptions in rural areas and a 158% increase in urban areas between 2015 and 2021.
• The NBM 1.0 accelerated growth in digital infrastructure, especially in rural areas, bridging the digital divide.

Broadband connection types

• Wired broadband: Broadband delivered through optical fiber cables.
• Wireless broadband: Broadband delivered through radio links.
• Digital Subscriber Line (DSL): Broadband delivered through copper lines.

NBM 2.0: Vision and Objectives

• The new phase of the National Broadband Mission builds on NBM 1.0 and sets ambitious goals for 2030 to ensure affordable and reliable broadband access across India.
• Key Objectives:
• Expand Optical Fiber Connectivity: Extend Optical Fiber Cable (OFC) to 2.70 lakh villages by 2030, from around 50,000 villages currently.
  • Maintain 95% uptime for OFC networks.
• Anchor Institution Connectivity: Provide broadband to 90% of anchor institutions such as schools, PHCs, Anganwadi Centers, and Panchayat offices.
• Enhanced Broadband Speeds: Increase the national average fixed broadband download speed to a minimum of 100 Mbps by 2030.
• 5G Rollout and 6G Preparedness: Facilitate the nationwide rollout of 5G networks while laying the groundwork for future 6G technologies.
• Leverage Power Sector Infrastructure: Utilize Optical Ground Wire (OPGW) from the power sector to boost connectivity, particularly for critical situations like disasters, wars, and emergencies.

NBM 2.0 Impact

• Digital Inclusion: Bridge the digital divide, especially in rural and underserved areas, ensuring equitable access to digital resources.
• Education and Healthcare: Broadband in schools and healthcare centers will promote e-learning, telemedicine, and other digital services.
• Economic Growth: Infrastructure development will generate employment and stimulate economic activity in both rural and urban regions.
• Disaster Management: Leveraging OPGW infrastructure will enhance communication resilience during natural disasters and emergencies.
• Technological Advancement: Adoption of 5G and 6G networks will position India as a leader in global digital innovation.

Way Ahead

• Affordable Internet Services: Ensure broadband remains affordable to increase adoption across all socio-economic groups.
• Strengthen Collaboration: Partner with private sector players to fast-track digital infrastructure development.
• Invest in Digital Literacy: Launch initiatives to improve digital literacy, enabling citizens to leverage connectivity effectively.
• Policy Support: Implement supportive policies to streamline processes, such as Right of Way (RoW) approvals, to minimize delays.

General Studies Paper -2

Context: China’s aggressive expansionist strategies have raised alarms globally, particularly among neighboring countries like India. The recent border developments between India and China highlight Beijing’s assertive territorial ambitions, which pose significant geopolitical challenges.

Key Elements of China’s Expansionist Strategy

• Territorial Ambitions in the Indo-Pacific: China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea (SCS) is evident through artificial island-building and the militarization of contested regions.
  • It has disregarded international rulings, such as the Hague Tribunal verdict (2016) invalidating its Nine-Dash Line maritime claims.
  • Tensions with Japan over the Senkaku Islands and with Bhutan over the Doklam plateau reflect its expansionist mindset.
• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): The BRI, while offering infrastructure development, often traps countries in debt dependency, giving China strategic leverage.
  • Examples include Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port and Pakistan’s Gwadar Port under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
• Diplomatic Assertiveness: China’s confrontational ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy employs coercion and threats to counter criticism, from its trade war with the U.S. to disputes with Europe and India.
• Military Modernization and Encroachment: Investments in hypersonic missiles and naval expansion bolster its territorial claims.
  • Frequent border incursions, including the Galwan Valley clashes (2020), are direct manifestations of its expansionist vision.

Recent Incidents Affecting India

• Dam Construction on the Yarlung Zangbo River: The proposed dam on the Brahmaputra River threatens downstream water security, reducing silt and water availability for India and Bangladesh.
• Administrative Changes in Ladakh: China created two new counties in the Hotan Prefecture, incorporating areas of Ladakh.
• Border Disputes of China with Nations: China has ongoing border disputes with several nations, including:
  • India: Over territories like Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, highlighted by frequent incursions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
  • Japan: Over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, claimed by China as Diaoyu Islands.
  • Southeast Asian Nations: In the South China Sea, disputes over maritime territories with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei due to its expansive Nine-Dash Line claims.

Motivations Behind China’s Strategy

• Restoration of Historical Glory: President Xi Jinping’s ‘Chinese Dream’ envisions reclaiming China’s status as a dominant global power, rooted in the concept of the ‘Middle Kingdom’.
• Economic Security: With a slowing domestic economy and aging population, securing global markets and resources is vital.
• Countering Western Influence: China seeks to challenge U.S. hegemony and establish a global order aligned with its authoritarian governance model.

Consequences of China’s Expansionism

• Regional Instability: Exacerbates tensions from the SCS to the Himalayan borders, destabilizing neighboring regions.
• Economic Dependency: Countries tied to China via the BRI face debt distress, compromising their sovereignty.
• Erosion of International Norms: Disregard for global rules and multilateral decisions weakens the rules-based international order.

Countering China’s Expansionist Strategy

• Strengthening Regional and Global Alliances: Initiatives like Quad (India, U.S., Japan, Australia) and AUKUS promote a free and open Indo-Pacific.
  • ASEAN nations are diversifying partnerships to reduce reliance on China.
• Promoting a Rules-Based Order: Strengthening multilateral organizations like the UN and WTO to counter unilateralism.
• Economic Resilience: Countries are diversifying supply chains and promoting self-reliance to reduce dependency on Chinese imports.
• Military and Strategic Preparedness: Nations must invest in modernizing their armed forces and enhancing maritime security.

India’s Role in China’s Expansionist Strategy

• Geopolitical Importance: India’s 3,488 km border with China makes it a key player in countering Beijing’s territorial ambitions.
  • Incidents like Doklam (2017) and Galwan Valley (2020) underscore China’s aggressive stance.
• Counterbalance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR): India’s SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) framework and partnerships with ASEAN bolster regional security.
• Economic Rivalry: Despite bilateral trade exceeding $118.4 billion, India’s Atmanirbhar Bharat campaign aims to reduce dependence on Chinese imports.
• Global Coalitions: India’s emphasis on a rules-based Indo-Pacific, its G20 presidency, and participation in BRICS and SCO ensure checks on China’s agenda.

Conclusion and Way Forward

• China’s expansionist strategy poses a significant challenge to regional stability and global governance. While its rise is undeniable, unchecked ambitions risk destabilizing the international order.
• The world’s response must focus on promoting cooperation, enforcing international laws, and building alliances to counter Beijing’s growing influence. For India, a vigilant and proactive approach—strengthening alliances, investing in strategic partnerships, and promoting self-reliance—will be crucial in navigating the challenges posed by China’s aggressive policies.

General Studies Paper -3

Context: The Union Cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, approved the establishment of the Third Launch Pad (TLP) at the Satish Dhawan Space Centre.

About launchpad

• It refers to a platform or area used to launch rockets or other vehicles into space.
• Currently, India relies on two launch pads: First Launch Pad (FLP) and Second Launch Pad (SLP).
  • FLP has been operational for 30 years, supporting PSLV and SSLV.
  • SLP, operational for 20 years, primarily supports GSLV and LVM3, and is preparing for the Gaganyaan human spaceflight mission.

Third Launch Pad (TLP)

• TLP will be designed to support Next Generation Launch Vehicles (NGLV), LVM3 vehicles with Semi-cryogenic stages, and scaled-up NGLV configurations.
• It will involve significant industry participation and utilize ISRO’s experience from earlier launch pad establishments. The facilities at the existing launch complex will be shared to maximize efficiency.
• Target : The project is targeted to be completed within 48 months (4 years).
• Expenditure: The total fund requirement is Rs. 3984.86 Crore for the establishment of the TLP and associated facilities.

Benefits

• The project will benefit the Indian Space ecosystem by enabling higher launch frequencies and supporting human spaceflight and space exploration missions.
• It will act as a standby launch pad for the Second Launch Pad (SLP) at Sriharikota.
• It will enhance launch capacity for future human spaceflight missions.

Future Vision

• The expanded vision of the Indian Space Programme includes the Bharatiya Antariksh Station (BAS) by 2035 and an Indian Crewed Lunar Landing by 2040.
  • New, heavier launch vehicles with advanced propulsion systems are required, which cannot be supported by the existing launch pads.
• Establishing the Third Launch Pad is essential to meet future space transportation needs for the next 25-30 years.

General Studies Paper –

Context: A report by McKinsey & Company highlights that India is on the verge of a significant demographic shift. By the 2050s, India is projected to have a support ratio comparable to advanced economies, indicating rapid ageing of its population.

Major Highlights

• Impact on Economic Growth: India’s demographic dividend contributed 0.7 percentage points annually to GDP per capita growth from 1997 to 2023.
  • By 2050, this contribution is expected to decline to just 0.2 percentage points per year, reflecting the diminishing advantage of a young population.
• Rising Dependency Ratio: In 1997, India had 14 working-age people (15-64 years) for every senior aged 65 or older.
  • By 2050, this will drop to 4.6 workers per senior, and by 2100, to 1.9 workers per senior, similar to Japan today.
• Female Labor Force Participation: Female labor force participation in the 20-49 age group is just 29% in India, compared to 50-70% in other emerging economies and 74% in high-income countries.
  • Increasing female workforce participation is a key recommendation to mitigate economic consequences.
• Fertility Rate and Population Trends: India’s fertility rate is 1.98 children per woman, below the replacement rate of 2.1.
  • According to UN projections, India’s population will peak at 1.7 billion in 2061 before declining.
  • By the end of the century, India will have more than twice the population of China.
• Recommendation: One way India can delay the negative economic consequences of demographic shift is by increasing female labor force participation.

Data on India’s Ageing Population

• As per the India Ageing Report 2023, the share of population over the age of 60 years is projected to increase from 10.5% in 2022 to 20.8% in 2050.
• By the end of the century, the elderly will constitute over 36% of the total population of the country.
• 80+Years Population: The population of people aged 80+ years will grow at a rate of around 279% between 2022 and 2050, with a predominance of widowed and highly dependent very old women.

India’s Demographic Dividend

• Demographic Dividend: It refers to the economic growth potential that results from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64 years old) is larger than the non-working-age population (14 or younger and 65 or older).
  • The change in age structure is typically brought on by a decline in fertility and mortality rates.
• India’s Demographic Dividend: India, with its large and young population, is currently experiencing a demographic dividend.
  • India is expected to add another 183 million people to the working-age group between 2020 and 2050.
  • The dividend would peak around 2041 (when the working age population would be 59 per cent of India’s population) and is expected to last until 2055.

Challenges India Face

• Unemployment: For the demographic dividend to work, the country must provide productive employment to the 7-8 million youths that join the labourforce every year.
• Youth unemployment was 5.7% in 2000 and jumped to 17.5% in 2019, showing an increase of more than 300 per cent.
• In 2022, the unemployment rate among graduates was around 29%, while for those who cannot read and write, it was just 3.4%.
• Education and Skill Gap: Over two-fifths of the country’s youths are educated below the secondary level and just 4% have access to vocational training.
• Gender Inequality: Women’s participation in the workforce remains relatively low, limiting the overall potential of the economy.

Measures

• Skill Development: Programs like the Skill India Mission aim to provide training and certification to millions of youth, enhancing their employability in various sectors.
• Education Reforms: Efforts to improve primary and secondary education quality, by introducing new Education Policy 2020.
• Make in India & Atmanirbhar Bharat: These initiatives focus on boosting domestic manufacturing, creating jobs, and enhancing industrial capacity to absorb the growing workforce.
• Start-up Ecosystem: The Startup India campaign encourages entrepreneurship, providing support to young innovators and creating new employment opportunities.
• Digital Infrastructure: Expanding internet access and digital literacy through programs like Digital India to create opportunities for youth in the technology and digital sectors.
• Healthcare Improvements: Programs like Ayushman Bharat aim to improve healthcare access and outcomes.

Way Ahead

• Developed countries have long crossed this zone that ensured their economic growth.
• Currently, they are in the “population ageing” phase and increasingly depend on migrants.
• The developing and poor countries, including India, account for more than 90% of the world’s young population.
• But if they cannot generate employment, it is not just a loss of this dividend but also a larger issue of economic stagnancy.
• Besides, such a large population of young people without productive vocations or engagements will trigger social unrest.

General Studies Paper –

Context: Farmers protesting at the Punjab and Haryana borders have demanded India’s withdrawal from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and suspension of all free trade agreements under the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA), citing adverse impacts on Indian agriculture.

About the World Trade Organization (WTO)

• What is WTO?
  • WTO governs global trade rules and is the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) established after WWII.
• Established: 1994 through the Marrakesh Agreement, with 123 founding countries.
  • India’s Membership: Since January 1, 1995.
• Current Membership:
  • 164 members (including the EU) and 23 observer governments (e.g., Iraq, Iran, Bhutan, and Libya).
• Significance of WTO:
  • Facilitates global trade through agreements.
  • Mediates trade disputes.
  • Supports developing countries in integrating with global trade.

Agreement on Agriculture (AoA)

• Objective:
  • Reform agricultural trade for a fair, market-oriented system.
  • Enhance stability and predictability for importing and exporting nations.
• Scope:
  • Covers basic agricultural products, processed products, wines, spirits, tobacco, and fibers like cotton.
• Pillars of AoA:
  • Market Access: Removal of trade restrictions like tariffs.
  • Domestic Support: Subsidies that distort trade, categorized into Amber Box, Blue Box, and Green Box.
  • Export Competition: Regulation of export subsidies.
• WTO Subsidy Categories:
  • Amber Box: Trade-distorting subsidies, subject to reduction.
  • Blue Box: Minimally trade-distorting subsidies tied to production limits.
  • Green Box: Non-trade-distorting subsidies permitted without limits.
• De Minimis Clause: Developing countries can maintain Amber Box subsidies up to 10% of agricultural output value.

Concerns Raised by Indian Farmers

• Impact on Indian Agriculture: AoA disproportionately favors developed nations, undermining the competitiveness of small-scale Indian farmers.
• Subsidy Reduction and Rising Input Costs: WTO caps India’s subsidies at 10% of agricultural output, restricting support for farmers amid rising costs for inputs like fertilizers and seeds.
• Dumping of Cheap Imports: Developed countries’ subsidized agricultural exports flood Indian markets, driving down domestic prices and hurting local farmers.
• Food Security Concerns: AoA rules limit subsidies critical for ensuring food self-sufficiency, risking greater dependency on imports.
• Role of Minimum Support Prices (MSP): WTO views MSP-linked subsidies as trade-distorting, posing a potential challenge to India’s MSP system for farmer welfare and food security.

Other Key Challenges with WTO

• Dispute Settlement Mechanism: India frequently faces trade disputes as both complainant and respondent.
  • Unilateral Protectionist Measures: Developed countries often resort to such measures, undermining multilateral agreements.
• Definition of ‘Developing Country’: WTO includes major economies like India and China as developing countries, creating additional pressures.
• Subsidies and Fisheries: WTO pressure to reduce subsidies in agriculture and fisheries conflicts with India’s focus on self-reliance.
• Peace Clause: Protected subsidy programs started before 2013 but are insufficient for India’s evolving needs.

India’s Vision for WTO Reform

• Reviving Multilateralism:
  • Ensuring that all member countries, not just dominant trading blocs, have a voice in decision-making.
• Addressing New Trade Issues:
  • Developing frameworks for digital trade, data governance, and sustainability.
• Strengthening Dispute Settlement Mechanism:
  • Advocating for a functional Appellate Body to ensure fair and predictable trade resolutions.
• Agriculture-Specific Reforms:
  • Special Safeguard Mechanisms.
  • Public stockholding for food security.
  • Fair treatment of subsidies.

Conclusion

• India’s relationship with the WTO reflects a delicate balance between protecting its developmental priorities and participating in global trade. While WTO agreements like AoA present significant challenges, India’s proactive stance and call for equitable reforms demonstrate its commitment to shaping a more inclusive global trade framework.
• Addressing farmers’ concerns, safeguarding food security, and ensuring fair trade practices will be pivotal as India continues to champion its interests in the global arena.