General Studies Paper 3

Context: The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) launched the first of the second-generation satellites for its navigation constellation successfully.

• Christened NVS-01, the first of ISRO’s NVS series of payloads is the heaviest in the constellation and was launched by a Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) rocket from Sriharikota.
• Each of the seven satellites currently in the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) constellation, operationally named NavIC, weighed much less.

Features of Second-generation NavIC satellite

• Atomic Clock:The satellite will have a Rubidium atomic clock onboard, a significant technology developed by India which only a handful of countries possess.
  • The satellite-based positioning system determines the location of objects by using the atomic clocks on board; failure of clocks means the satellites are no longer able to provide accurate locations.
  • Several of the existing satellites stopped providing location data after their onboard atomic clocks failed — this was the main reasonfor the launch of the replacement satellite in 2018.
• L1 signals for better use in wearable devices:The second generation satellites will send signals in a third frequency, L1, besides the L5 and S frequency signals that the existing satellites provide, increasing interoperability with other satellite-based navigation systems.
  • The L1 frequency is among the most commonly used in the Global Positioning System (GPS), and will increase the use of the regional navigation system in wearable devices and personal trackers that use low-power, single-frequency chips.
• Longer mission life:The second-generation satellites will also have a longer mission life of more than 12 years. The existing satellites have a mission life of 10 years.

Practical purpose of the NAvIC constellation 

• NavIC is in use for projects like public vehicle safety, power grid synchronisation, real-time train information systems, and fishermen’s safety. 
• Other upcoming initiatives such as common alert protocol based emergency warning, time dissemination, geodetic network, and unmanned aerial vehicles are in the process of adopting the NavIC system.
• Some cell phone chipsets such as the ones built by Qualcomm and MediaTek integrated NavIC receivers in 2019.

Significant Features of regional navigation system

• There are four global satellite-based navigation systems — the American GPS, the Russian GLONASS (GLObalnaya NAvigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema), the European Galileo, and the Chinese Beidou. Japan has a four-satellite system that can augment GPS signals over the country, similar to India’s GAGAN (GPS Aided GEO Augmented Navigation).
• NavIC is better than GPS in some aspects. While GPS can get you within 20 metres of your target, NaVIC is more accurate and can get you even closer—within 5 metres. 
  • For individual users, this might not be significant but for military equipment like guided missiles, it is crucial.
• However, unlike GPS, which can be used anywhere in the world, NaVIC is regional and can only be used within India and up to 1,500 km from its borders.
• NavIC uses satellites in high geo-stationery orbit— the satellites move at a constant speed relative to Earth, so they are always looking over the same region on Earth.
• NavIC signals come to India at a 90-degree angle,making it easier for them to reach devices located even in congested areas, dense forests, or mountains.
• With the use of NavIC picking up, the government has been looking at the possibility of increasing the coverage area of the system.

General Studies Paper 3

Context: India-Russia defence Joint Venture BrahMos Aerospace has embarked on a glorious milestone as it completed  25 years.

• It is a joint venture between India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya.
  • The missile derives its name from the Brahmaputra and Moskva rivers.
• The BrahMos JV was formed in 1998 and the first successful launch of the missile took place in 2001.

Features 

• Stages: BrahMos is a two-stage missile with a solid propellant booster engine.
  • Its first stage brings the missile to supersonic speed and then gets separated.
  • The liquid ramjet or the second stage then takes the missile closer to three times the speed of sound in the cruise phase.
• Capability: The missile is capable of being launched from land, sea, sub-sea and air against surface and sea-based targets and has been long inducted by the Indian armed forces.
  • The ship-based version was inducted in the Navy in 2005, the land-based version in the Army in 2007, and the air-launched version was inducted in the Air Force in 2020.
• Range:  The range of the BrahMos was originally limited to 290 km as per obligations of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) of which Russia was a signatory. Following India’s entry into the club in June 2016, plans were announced to extend the range initially to 450 km and subsequently to 600 km.
• Speed: The BrahMos missile has a speed of 8 Mach, which is nearly three times the speed of sound
• Indigenised: The missiles now contain a high level of indigenised content and several systems have also been indigenised to maximise the participation of Indian industry in the development of the ordnance.

Latest developments

• In January 2023, the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) approved the procurement of Brahmo’s launchers for Shivalik-class frigates and next-generation missile vessels.
• An underwater version is also being developed, which will be exported to friendly foreign nations and used by Indian submarines.
• In January 2022, India’s BrahMos and Philippines Aerospace Limited inked a deal worth around $375 million to procure BrahMos cruise missiles for the Philippines Marines.

Export Potential 

• Since the inception of the BrahMos project, it has been envisaged as a huge export opportunity.
• Over the years many countries have shown an interest in the missile and the missile is generating a lot of global attention, particularly from South America, the Middle East, Asia Pacific and African regions.
• In 2022, there were reports of a possible deal with Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Importance 

• The Brahmos JV has helped India develop its military-industrial complex.
• The deal between the Philippines and BrahMos is a milestone in India’s efforts to become one of the largest defence exporters in the world.
  • In addition, it also shows the growing capabilities of India’s public and private defence sectors.
• It helps the country achieve strategic autonomy in the defence sector, which is important to safeguard the country’s national interests.
• Additional BrahMos exports could to some extent help in fulfilling Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of ‘Making in India, Making for the world’, achieving the defence hardware export target of US$ 5 billion by 2025.
• BrahMos missile provides India strategic airpower in the face of 2 inimical neighbours.

Competitors and Challenges 

• One of the most prominent cruise missiles in the world is the Tomahawk, developed by the US. Notably, it is subsonic and flies around 0.8 Mach.
  • It has a range of about 1,600 km, much more than the BrahMos, but its speed makes it relatively slow and somewhat easier to intercept.
• The French Apacheseries of missiles is also a prominent cruise missile, with a top speed of 1 Mach.
  • This has been inducted by UAE, Greece, Saudi Arabia, the UK and Italy, besides France.
• The Chinese inducted the YJ-1814 into the PLA in 2014. It has a range of 220–540 km and cruises at subsonic speed before accelerating to supersonic speed in the terminal stage.
• TheRussian P-800 Oniks  is a supersonic cruise missile with specifications somewhat similar to BrahMos and flies at a top speed of 2.2 Mach.
  • the BrahMos missile is not significantly different from the P-800 Oniks, it costs twice as much. This can be attributed perhaps to a more developed military industrial base in Russia which results in a lower cost of production.
• Possible defence deals are highly competitive, with major players extensively marketing their products.

Way Ahead

• BrahMos has very few competitors in the international market and The 2022 Philippines deal should spur additional exports of the supersonic cruise missile.
• India needs to more actively develop marketing and promotion networks akin to established players in the global market to promote defence sales.

General Studies Paper 2

Context: Recently, the second Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) Ministerial Meeting took place, showcasing the significant strides made in fostering economic engagement among partner countries in the Indo-Pacific region.

Hosted by the United States, this virtual gathering convened high-level officials to delve into discussions regarding the four pillars of the framework and the ongoing negotiations associated with each pillar.

What are the Key Highlights of the Meeting?

• The meeting announced the substantial conclusion of the negotiations of a first-of-its-kind international IPEF Supply Chain Agreement under Pillar II of the framework, which aims to increase the resilience, efficiency, productivity, sustainability, transparency, diversification, security, fairness, and inclusivity of their supply chains.
• The meeting also reported good progress under the other IPEF Pillars, namely Fair and Resilient Trade (Pillar I), Infrastructure, Clean Energy, and Decarbonization (Pillar III), and Tax and Anti-Corruption (Pillar IV).
• The meeting witnessed the introduction of a regional hydrogen initiative by some IPEF partners to encourage widespread deployment of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen and its derivatives in the region under Pillar III.

What is IPEF?

• It is a US-led initiative that aims to strengthen economic partnership among participating countries to enhance resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.
• IPEF was launched jointly by the USA and other partner countries of the Indo-Pacific region on 23rd May 2022, at Tokyo.

Members:

• Australia, Brunei, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, United States, and Vietnam.

Pillar:

Trade (Pillar I):

• Focuses on enhancing trade engagement among IPEF partner countries.
• Aims to promote economic growth, peace, and prosperity in the region.
• India had joined Pillars II to IV of IPEF while it has an observer status in Pillar-I.

Supply-chain resilience (Pillar II):

• Seeks to make supply chains more resilient, robust, and well-integrated.
• Emphasizes crisis response measures and cooperation to mitigate disruptions.
• Focuses on improving logistics, connectivity, and investments in critical sectors.
• Aims to enhance worker roles through upskilling and reskilling initiatives.

Clean Economy (Pillar III):

• Aims to advance cooperation on clean energy and climate-friendly technologies.
• Focuses on research, development, commercialization, and deployment of clean energy.
• Encourages investment in climate-related projects in the Indo-Pacific region.

Fair Economy (Pillar IV):

• Focuses on implementing effective anti-corruption and tax measures.
• Highlights India’s strong steps in improving legislative and administrative frameworks to combat corruption.
• Reaffirms commitment to implementing UNCAC (United Nations Convention against Corruption) and FATF (Financial Action Task Force) standards.

General Studies Paper 2

Context: The Indian definition of employment does not meet international standards.

Need of obtaining employment statistics

• The global recession of 2008 profoundly affected high-income countries and cast its shadow on countries and sectors closely linked to the global economy.
• In this context, international labour statisticians urged countries to obtain employment statistics that would
  • examine and monitor “conditions of work” and
  • construct measurements “useful for labour-management negotiations”.
• This required good estimates of underemployment resulting in advocacy for a short measurement period to reduce recall bias and limiting focus on activities for pay or profit.

Issues with obtaining employment statistics in India

• Unmatching definition:
  • The Indian definition of employment does not meet international standards. This has resulted in strong recommendations from international bodies to revise India’s definition of who is employed and who is not.
• Validity of International standards for India:
  • The International Labour Organisation (ILO)has urged India to follow the standards laid down by the 19th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS-19), held in 2013.
    • The question is, are these recommendations appropriate for a transitional economy, in which a large proportion of the population continues to engage in agriculture, often supplemented by casual wage work.
  • Two major recommendations of ICLS-19 are: 
    • Employment data should rely on short-term measures of employment, in most cases, a 7-day measure, capturing employment during the preceding week;
    • It should measure all types of work, including unpaid work, but define a person as being employed only if he or she is engaged in producing goods or services for pay or profit.
      • This distinction between work and employment may have critical implications for the measurement of progress towards SDGs.

Challenges for India

• Excluding production of goods or services for own use:
  • Exclusion of production of goods or services for own use was possibly put in place due to a conviction that countries were inflating employment rates for excluded groups, particularly women, by counting distress work instead of providing paying jobs.
  • This would reduce the proportion of individuals defined as being employed by as much as 50 per cent in some conditions. Which could also be the case with India.
• Relying on a one-week reference period:
  • The recommendation to rely on a one-week reference period is even more likely to affect this classification.
  • A vast proportion of rural Indians engage in multiple activities combining farm work with work in construction,MGNREGS work, or other work in nearby towns.
  • However, when it is time to sow or harvest, they devote all their time to farming.
    • When surveys occur during this period, many individuals would be classified as farmers, and based on IHDS estimates, 45 per cent may be classified as producing only for home consumption.
  • Thus, they would not be counted as employed even if they are engaged in income-producing activities during other parts of the year.

Reasons for India’s declining employment

• Opting out of work: 
  • The sharp fall in India’s labour force participation rate (LFPR) suggests that despite India’s young population, many have simply opted out of the labour force, perhaps feeling let down by the absence of remunerative, productive jobs.
• Women face more issues: 
  • The situation is even more dire for women who had a considerably lower participation rate to begin with.
  • India’s female labour force participation is not only lower than the global average, but also lower than countries like Bangladesh.
• Less Jobs: 
  • Post-pandemic, people unable to find jobs remain high among those looking for jobs. Also, the unemployment rate is higher among the younger and more educated.
• More Informal Sector Jobs: 
  • While there are signs of increasing formalisation as indicated by the EPFO data, a substantial share of the labour force continues to remain employed in the informal sector, lacking a safety net.

Way ahead

• Changing definitions would underestimate the strength of the Indian economy and not serve any policy purpose.
• Despite this potential for an artificial decline in employment, the advocacy from international bodies for adopting ICLS-19 recommendations remains strong.
• Unless the statistical system develops the self-confidence to assertively engage with international organisations, is willing to adopt global best practices where it makes sense and resists pressure to do so when it does not serve policy needs, it will continue to be held in low esteem nationally and internationally.

General Studies Paper 3

Context: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released two reports titled “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2023-2027” and “State of Global Climate 2022.”

Major Findings 

• The predictions of the recently released reports point to precipitation anomalies and an increase in marine heat waves as compared to marine cold spells.
• The El Niño, which is currently brewing, will further strengthen this year, resulting in a 98% possibility of witnessing temperatures higher than 2016 at least in one of the years in the 2023-27 period.
• Global surface temperature: The annual mean global surface temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be 1.1-1.8 degree Celsius higher than the baseline temperature of 1850-1900 or pre-industrial levels.
  • In 2022, it was 1.15 degrees above the baseline, and by 2027, the average will exceed 1.5 degrees, a critical point beyond which there may be no return.
• The cryosphere is shrinking, and there is a mass loss of glaciers in High-mountain Asia, Western North America, and South America.
  • Due to the alarming rate of warming of the Arctic Ocean, the Greenlandic ice sheet is melting at a faster pace, contributing to the increase in sea level.

What is the 1.5 degree Celsius target?

• The 1.5 °C is the goal of the Paris Agreement which is a legally binding international treaty on climate change.
  • It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on 12 December 2015. It entered into force on 4 November 2016.
• The Paris Agreement is a landmark in the multilateral climate change process because, for the first time, a binding agreement brings all nations together to combat climate change and adapt to its effects.
• Its overarching goal is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

Why is it needed ?

• In recent years, world leaders have stressed the need to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of this century.
• That’s because the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that crossing the 1.5°C threshold risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.

Issues 

• Historically, developed countries are responsible for a major chunk of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
  • Therefore, they are expected to assume more responsibility and implement climate action.
• However, the Climate Performance Index over the years has shown otherwise.
  • Countries like Australia, the U.S., Japan, Russia and Canada have made little progress in meeting their pledges.
• Additionally, polluters like China, Iran and Saudi Arabia rank low in climate performance.
• The pandemic pushed the world into a socio-economic crisis. On the road to recovery, countries pledged measures to build-back.
  • However, in most cases there is little to no consideration for building-back in a sustainable manner.
• The Ukraine conflict has further added to woes and sparked an energy crisis threatening climate goals.
• For example, warming greater than the global average is being experienced in the Arctic, with the term ‘polar amplification’ gaining more traction.

Global Impacts 

• Climate risks and hazards impact human population and the ecosystem depending on exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity.
  • It has exacerbated food insecurity, displacement, and deaths.
• Climate change has been affecting crop yield negatively and the risks posed by agricultural pests and diseases have also increased in the past few years.
• Countries like Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, and Afghanistan are facing acute food shortages resulting in malnutrition and hunger, demanding urgent humanitarian assistance.
• However, food insecurity in these countries is due to the complex interaction of climate conditions with other factors such as droughts, cyclones, and political and economic instability.
• The heatwaves in Pakistan and India in 2022 resulted in a decline in crop yields.
• The floods in Pakistan affected croplands in southern and central parts of the country and displaced eight million people within the country.
• Aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems have also not been immune to such changes in climate patterns. Phenological shifts and mismatches have been recorded due to climate change.
• The population of migratory species has declined in Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, the warming above 1.5 degree Celsius can prove lethal for coral reefs which are already prone to bleaching.
• According to the WMO, extreme weather anomalies have caused the deaths of two million people and incurred $4.3 trillion in economic damages over the past fifty years. In 2020-2021, 22,608 disaster deaths were recorded globally.

Impact on India

• India has been increasingly facing the brunt of climate change.
• February 2023 was recorded as the hottest month since record-keeping began in 1901.
• In 2022, India witnessed extreme weather events for 80% of the days. Indian monsoons were wetter than usual last year after recording extreme heat during the pre-monsoon period, resulting in wildfires in Uttarakhand and acute food shortages.
• According to the Climate Change Performance Index 2023, India ranked eighth with a high-performance after Denmark, Sweden, Chile, and Morocco.

Way Ahead 

• Being an emerging economy with development needs, India is attempting to balance its development needs with ongoing climate action both at the domestic and international levels.
• With domestic measures like the Green Hydrogen Mission and the introduction of green bonds, India is performing fairly well despite contributing only a miniscule to cumulative GHG emissions. At the international level, through the International Solar Alliance and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, India can prove to be a responsible climate player keeping in mind that it has a long way to go in very little time.

General Studies Paper 2

Context: The recent arrest of former Pakistani Prime Minister led to massive protests across the country. For the first time, violent mobs, including the supporter of former PM, attacked army and paramilitary installations across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Punjab, Balochistan and major cities of Pakistan. The army was not targeted even in the wake of 1971 liberation of Bangladesh, military coups or even post the assassination of popular leaders such as Benazir Bhutto.

The instability in Afghanistan has further added fuel to the fire and the instability in Pakistan could in turn further destabilise Afghanistan. The growing instability in the Pakistan could spill over in no time and can affect the stability of the region.

What is the Current Situation in Pakistan?

Political Rollercoaster:

• Pakistan is facing a political crisis since April 2022, when the former prime minister Imran Khan was ousted from his position in a vote of no confidence. He refused to accept the result and launched a series of protests and rallies, demanding an early election. He also faced many legal charges, including terrorism, corruption and contempt of court.
• The current Pakistani government has accused him of destabilizing the country and undermining democracy.
• They’ve accused Imran Khan of becoming opportunistic and destructive by tapping into the anti-army sentiment among the public.
• The turmoil in Pakistan’s political discourse could result into a Pakistan Spring (Like Arab Spring). There are many similarities between the situations in Pakistan and those in the Arab Spring countries. Some of the similarities include political instability, economic grievances, corruption, youth bulge, civil society activism and media freedom.

Rise of Taliban:

• Since the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Pakistani army has been under siege and the Taliban supported Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is expanding its footprint across Balochistan and Punjab.
• The emboldened TTP and Baloch groups mounted several attacks against the armed forces.
• The Pakistani army is practically fighting a two-front war (internally with TTP & externally with Taliban) and keeping a tight watch on the Iran border.
• The Pakistani army used to be seen as a strong and capable force that could play a smart game of proxy wars has been exposed to be invincible by Taliban.
• The Taliban is now a major threat to Pakistan, and the army is struggling to contain it. This has led to a loss of confidence in the army, and its aura of invincibility has faded.

Army under Seize:

• Street mobilisations after the ouster of Imran Khan have made the army vulnerable. The army today is politically much weaker which may provide a fostering ground for non-state actors like TTP.
• The army’s diminished stature became visible, when protesters could access even General Headquarters with some persuasion. Violent mobs targeted the Corp Commander’s house in Lahore, the Pakistan Military Academy, the air force base, and army patrols in cities.

Economic Crisis:

• The inflation rate in Pakistan is currently over 30%, which is the highest it has been in years. This is making it difficult for people to afford basic necessities, such as food and fuel. The Pakistani rupee has lost over 30% of its value against the US dollar in the past year.
• Recently, a video circulated over social media showed that Pakistanis in some regions are stockpiling LPG in plastic bags as dealers are curtailing supplies due to a lack of cooking gas cylinders. Moving bombs’: Pakistan’s LNG crisis sparks dangerous ‘bag gas’ trade
• The country’s public debt has grown to a staggering USD 250 billion, and the government has failed to secure a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to its inability to implement the required reforms.
• The country is facing a severe shortage of foreign exchange reserves, which have fallen to a 9-year low of less than USD 3 billion meaning that the country does not have enough foreign currency to import essential goods and services.
• The recent climate disasters have added the fuel to the fire, making their economy more vulnerable.

Resentment against China:

• The two provinces (KPK and Balochistan) crucial for CPEC, have become battle grounds for security forces. The army’s steadfast backing of CPEC has brought it to the centre of rising public resentment against Chinese investments.
• The sentiment is so perceptible that following his recent visit to Pakistan, the Chinese foreign minister stressed that some forces had fabricated the rumour that China created a “debt trap” in Pakistan.

What are the Threats to India?

• Escalation of Cross-Border Tensions: Pakistan’s political crisis may lead to a rise in cross-border tensions, particularly along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. Pakistan may resort to provoking India by supporting militant groups or violating the ceasefire agreement to divert attention from its domestic problems or to rally public support behind the government or the military.
• Refugee Crisis: The economic crisis in Pakistan could lead to a refugee crisis, with millions of Pakistanis fleeing the country. This could put a strain on India’s resources and could also lead to an increase in crime and social unrest.
• Compromised Regional Security: The current crisis in Pakistan could lead to regional instability, as Pakistan becomes more dependent on its neighbours for support. This could lead to increased tensions between Pakistan and its neighbours, including India.
• Nuclear Proliferation: Any political or economic instability in Pakistan that weakens its control over its nuclear arsenal could potentially lead to concerns about the security and safety of those weapons. This could raise tensions and pose a threat to regional stability.

What are the Opportunities for India?

Counterterrorism Cooperation:

• Pakistan’s political and economic situation can provide an opportunity for India to engage with the international community in addressing the issue of cross-border terrorism.
• By highlighting Pakistan’s support for terrorism, India can strengthen its case for global cooperation in combating terrorism and isolating state-sponsored terror networks.

Regional Power Projection:

• India can demonstrate its ability to maintain stability and handle regional challenges effectively, contrasting with the internal strife faced by Pakistan.
• Strengthening regional alliances and partnerships, particularly with countries in South Asia and the Middle East, could enhance India’s position as a responsible regional power.

Strengthening Regional Connectivity:

• India can capitalize on Pakistan’s current challenges by promoting regional connectivity initiatives, such as the Chabahar port in Iran or the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
• These projects can bolster India’s access to Central Asia, Afghanistan, and beyond, enabling trade diversification and enhancing India’s regional influence.

Economic Cooperation with Other Countries:

• India can position itself as a stable and attractive investment destination in the region.
• With Pakistan facing economic challenges, India can leverage its economic growth and stability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and foster closer economic ties with other nations.
• This can lead to increased trade partnerships and collaborations, further enhancing India’s economic standing.

What can India do in such a situation?

• “Victims of terrorism do not sit together with perpetrators of terrorism to discuss terrorism”. But India can give a chance to desperate Pakistan of formal talks of it agrees to stop terrorism, resolve Kashmir issuePakistan needs the talks desperately.
• India can use its diplomatic leverage to isolate Pakistan internationally and expose its alleged support for terrorism and human rights violations.
• The crises in Pakistan have shown that the country is unable to effectively govern itself. India can use this to its advantage by pressuring Pakistan to change its behaviour on issues such as terrorism and nuclear proliferation.
• Amidst such a crisis, India must prioritize its border security and enhance its military preparedness to contain insurgencies, cross-border aggression, or provocation from Pakistan.
• India could strengthen its economic and strategic ties with Iran, and other Central Asian countries to counter Pakistan’s influence in the region.

Conclusion:

• Dealing with Pakistan’s establishment that has supported anti-India terrorist groups is unpleasant. Nonetheless, permitting Pakistan to come under the influence of extremist Islamists would present an even graver situation. India must make efforts to stabilize the conditions in Pakistan, as the repercussions such as border tensions and insurgencies will directly impact India.

General Studies Paper 2

Context: The Indian definition of employment does not meet international standards.

Need of obtaining employment statistics

• The global recession of 2008 profoundly affected high-income countries and cast its shadow on countries and sectors closely linked to the global economy.
• In this context, international labour statisticians urged countries to obtain employment statistics that would
  • examine and monitor “conditions of work” and
  • construct measurements “useful for labour-management negotiations”.
• This required good estimates of underemployment resulting in advocacy for a short measurement periodto reduce recall bias and limiting focus on activities for pay or profit.

Issues with obtaining employment statistics in India

• Unmatching definition:
  • The Indian definition of employment does not meet international standards. This has resulted in strong recommendations from international bodies to revise India’s definition of who is employed and who is not.
• Validity of International standards for India:
  • The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has urged India to follow the standards laid down by the 19th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS-19), held in 2013.
    • The question is, are these recommendations appropriate for a transitional economy, in which a large proportion of the population continues to engage in agriculture, often supplemented by casual wage work.
  • Two major recommendations of ICLS-19 are: 
    • Employment data should rely on short-term measures of employment, in most cases, a 7-day measure, capturing employment during the preceding week;
    • It should measure all types of work, including unpaid work, but define a person as being employed only if he or she is engaged in producing goods or services for pay or profit.
      • This distinction between work and employment may have critical implications for the measurement of progress towards SDGs.

Challenges for India

• Excluding production of goods or services for own use:
  • Exclusion of production of goods or services for own use was possibly put in place due to a conviction that countries were inflating employment rates for excluded groups, particularly women, by counting distress work instead of providing paying jobs.
  • This would reduce the proportion of individuals defined as being employed by as much as 50 per cent in some conditions. Which could also be the case with India.
• Relying on a one-week reference period:
  • The recommendation to rely on a one-week reference period is even more likely to affect this classification.
  • A vast proportion of rural Indians engage in multiple activities combining farm work with work in construction,MGNREGS work, or other work in nearby towns.
  • However, when it is time to sow or harvest, they devote all their time to farming.
    • When surveys occur during this period, many individuals would be classified as farmers, and based on IHDS estimates, 45 per cent may be classified as producing only for home consumption.
  • Thus, they would not be counted as employed even if they are engaged in income-producing activities during other parts of the year.

Reasons for India’s declining employment

• Opting out of work: 
  • The sharp fall in India’s labour force participation rate (LFPR) suggests that despite India’s young population, many have simply opted out of the labour force, perhaps feeling let down by the absence of remunerative, productive jobs.
• Women face more issues: 
  • The situation is even more dire for women who had a considerably lower participation rate to begin with.
  • India’s female labour force participation is not only lower than the global average, but also lower than countries like Bangladesh.
• Less Jobs: 
  • Post-pandemic, people unable to find jobs remain high among those looking for jobs. Also, the unemployment rate is higher among the younger and more educated.
• More Informal Sector Jobs: 
  • While there are signs of increasing formalisation as indicated by the EPFO data, a substantial share of the labour force continues to remain employed in the informal sector, lacking a safety net.

Way ahead

• Changing definitions would underestimate the strength of the Indian economy and not serve any policy purpose.
• Despite this potential for an artificial decline in employment, the advocacy from international bodies for adopting ICLS-19 recommendations remains strong.

Unless the statistical system develops the self-confidence to assertively engage with international organisations, is willing to adopt global best practices where it makes sense and resists pressure to do so when it does not serve policy needs, it will continue to be held in low esteem nationally and internationally.

General Studies Paper 3

Context:  More than 50 percent of the world’s largest lakes and reservoirs have shrunk over the past three decades primarily due to climate change and human activities, according to a new study.

About the study

• The study was published in the journal Science named‘Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake water storage’.
• For the study, team examined1,975 of the world’s largest lakes, including 1,052 natural lakes and 921 reservoirs — researchers studied lakes which are larger than 100 sq km and reservoirs with more than 1 cubic km of storage capacity.
• The analysis was done following a novel methodology that involved combining two-dimensional water areas with one-dimensional water levels to estimate the three-dimensional change in water storage.
• Combining recent level measurements with longer-term area measurements allowed  to reconstruct the volume of lakes dating back decades.

Findings of the Study

• The researchers found that out of the 1,052 natural lakes that were examined, 457 had significant water losses in the past three decades. Meanwhile, 234 natural lakes gained water and 360 of such water bodies didn’t show any notable trend.
• The study also pointed out the worst affected largest lakes across the world and why they are shrinking in size.
  • For instance,the Aral Sea in Central Asia, Lake Mar Chiquita in Argentina, the Dead Sea in the Middle East, and the Salton Sea in California have mainly dried due to unsustainable water consumption.
  • Whereas, increasing temperature and (potential evapotranspiration)PET caused the complete disappearance of Lake Gowd-e-Zareh in Afghanistan, Toshka lakes in Egypt, and marked drying of Lake Kara-Bogaz-Gol in Turkmenistan, Lake Khyargas in Mongolia, and Lake Zonag in China.
• Notably, lakes have shrunk or disappeared completely across 82 percent of the Arctic’s lake-rich regions in the past 20 years.
• Natural lakes located in humid tropics and high altitudes are also experiencing water shortages.
• India:More than half of the reservoirs located in peninsular India have witnessed substantial water storage decline, mainly due to sedimentation.
  • Moreover, among the worst affected natural lakes in the country is Ladakh’s Tso Moriri.
• Reservoirs:Two-thirds of all reservoirs across the globe have experienced significant storage declines.
  • Reservoirs, however, showed a net global increase in water levels, owing to 183 recently filled reservoirs.

Reasons for Shrinking of Lakes

• Human Activities:57 percent of the net decline in the water quantity in natural lakes to human activities, such as unsustainable consumption of water.
• Climate Change:The Arctic lakes have shrunk as a result of a “combination of changes in precipitation, runoff, temperature, and  potential evapotranspiration (PET) — loss of water due to both evaporation and transpiration, which are likely a concurrent result of natural variability and climate change.
• Sedimentation:The main reason behind the drop in water levels is sedimentation — the process of particles such as sand and stones settling to the bottom of a body of water.
  • Sedimentation is the primary contributor to the global storage decline in existing reservoirs and has a larger impact than hydroclimate variability, i.e., droughts and recovery from droughts.

What are the consequences of shrinking lakes?

• Nearly two billion people, one-quarter of the global population in 2023, have been affected as they live in basins with large water bodies that have witnessed a significant drop in their water levels in the past three decades.
• Many of these drying lakes have been identified as important sources of water and energy (hydropower).
• The reduced size of these lakes not only results in freshwater decline and environmental degradation but also disrupts the water and carbon cycles.
• Widespread water shortage in these water bodies, “particularly accompanied by rising lake temperatures, could reduce the amount of absorbed carbon dioxide and increase carbon emissions to the atmosphere as the lakes are hotspots of carbon cycling.
• If lakes are encroached upon they disappear as a water source but also contribute to severe urban flooding. 
• Loss of lake levels leads to groundwater pumping and depletion,leading to a host of other issues.

How can we conserve these water bodies?

• There is a need to manage them in an integrated manner. Steps like restrictions on water consumption and climate mitigation to bring down global temperatures are some of the ways to conserve them.
• This will also help in reducing sedimentation in reservoirs as the rate of sedimentation is linked to climate change — it increases when there is extreme precipitation, as well as land disturbance such as wildfires, landslides and deforestation.
• Managing lakes in an integrated manner will elevate the status of lakes to their rightful place, and they can continue to sustain humanity.

General Studies Paper 3

Context: The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI), as part of its Vision Insurance for all’ by 2047, has allotted states and union territories to every insurer to increase insurance penetration in India.

IRDAI is also planning to launch Bima Trinity – Bima Sugam, Bima Vistar, Bima Vaahaks – in collaboration with general and life insurance firms to make insurance activities hassle free.

What is IRDAI Vision 2047?

Objective:

• Insurance for All by 2047 aims that every citizen has an appropriate life, health and property insurance cover and every enterprise is supported by appropriate insurance solutions.
• It also aims to make the Indian insurance sector globally attractive

Pillars:

• Insurance customers (Policyholders)
• Insurance providers (insurers)
• Insurance distributors (intermediaries)

Focus Areas:

• Making available right products to right customers
• Creating robust grievance redressal mechanism
• Facilitating ease of doing business in the insurance sector
• Ensuring the regulatory architecture is aligned with the market dynamics
• Boosting innovation
• Competition and distribution efficiencies while mainstreaming technology and moving towards principle based regulatory regime.

Significance:

• It can help people in households all over the country to have access to an affordable insurance policy that covers health, life, property, and accidents.
• These policies would offer faster claim settlements, sometimes within hours, and additional benefits like gym or yoga memberships.

What is Bima Trinity?

Bima Sugam:

• It is a unified platform that combines insurers and distributors. It simplifies policy purchases, service requests, and claims settlement for customers in one convenient portal.

Bima Vistar:

• It is a comprehensive bundled policy that covers life, health, property, and accidents. It provides defined benefits for each risk category, ensuring quick claim payouts without surveyors.

Bima Vaahaks:

• It is a women-centric workforce operating at the Gram Sabha level. They will educate and convince women about the benefits of comprehensive insurance, particularly Bima Vistar. By addressing concerns and emphasizing advantages, Bima Vaahaks empower women and enhance their financial security.

What is the State of Insurance Sector in India?

• According to the Economic Survey 2022-23, life insurance density in the country increased from USD 11.1 in 2001 to USD 91 in 2021. Total global insurance premiums in 2021 increased 3.4% in real terms, with the non-life insurance sector registering 2.6% growth, driven by rate hardening in commercial lines in developed markets.
• According to the Economic Survey 2022-23, India’s insurance market is poised to emerge as one of the fastest-growing markets globally in the coming decade.
• As per the IRDAI, insurance penetration in India increased from 3.76% in 2019-20 to 4.20%in 2020-21, registering a growth of 11.70%.
• India is at present the 10th biggest market in the world it is projected to be 6th biggest by 2032.

What are the Challenges Related to Insurance Sector

Lower Adoption Rate:

• Insurance is not widely adopted in India compared to other countries. This is because many people are not aware of insurance or don’t trust it.
• In rural areas, where a large portion of the population lives, only a small percentage have life insurance coverage.
• The insurance industry’s contribution to India’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is less than 5%, which is lower than the global average. In simple terms, insurance is not widely used in India, and efforts are needed to increase awareness and trust in insurance products.

Lack of Product Innovation:

• The insurance sector in India has been slow in product innovation. Many insurance companies offer similar products, which leads to a lack of differentiation in the market.

Fraudulence:

• Fraud includes things like making false claims and lying about information.
• The use of digital technology and customer-focused policies may have unintentionally given fraudsters more chances to steal identities and make fake claims.
• Over 70% of Indian insurers have seen an increase in fraud cases in the past two years.

Talent Management:

• The insurance sector in India faces a talent shortage. The industry needs skilled professionals in areas such as actuarial science, underwriting, claims, and risk management. Attracting and retaining talented professionals is a challenge for the industry.

Slow Rate of Digitalization:

• The insurance sector in India has been slow to adopt digitalization compared to other industries, which has resulted in several challenges such as inefficient processes, lack of transparency, and poor customer experience.

Claims Management:

• The claims process in India is often seen as complicated, slow, and opaque, which can lead to customer dissatisfaction and loss of trust in the insurance industry.
• This can be due to a lack of transparency, inefficient processes, and poor communication with customers.

Way Forward

• To improve the insurance sector in India, several steps can be taken to leverage technology, align with customer behavior, optimize data usage, simplify claims management, adopt hybrid distribution models, and tackle fraud.
• Digitalization should be a priority across the value chain to reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support ecosystem development. This involves using technology to enhance employee skills and productivity through upskilling programs.

Insurers need to align with dynamic changes in customer behavior and preferences. By offering quick personalized products and prioritizing flexibility over mass offerings, insurers can better meet customer needs and manage perceptions.

General Studies Paper 2

Context: Recently, the First G20 Disaster Risk Reduction Working Group (DRR WG) meeting under India’s G20 Presidency took place, where India highlighted the importance of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR).

What are the Highlights of the Meeting?

• The G20 Disaster Risk Resilience Working Group has called upon governments to build a social protection system with an effective and preferred instrument for disaster risk financing.
• It emphasised the need for new-age Social Protection Systems that invest in local risk resilience to mitigate, prepare and recover from disasters.

The five priorities outlined:

• Global coverage of Early Warning Systems
• Increased commitment towards making infrastructure systems disaster resilient
• Stronger national financial frameworks for DRR
• Strengthened national and global disaster response system
• Increased application of ecosystems-based approaches to DRR
• The G20 DRR WG intended to include considerations for the Sendai Framework’s mid-term review, renew multilateral cooperation at all levels, and inform future global policies and initiatives related to DRR.

What is the Need for Creating a Collective G20 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction?

• The G20 nations, with a population of 4.7 billion, have large exposure, risk from asset concentration, and vulnerability to natural disasters.
• In the current World Risk Index, four out of the top 10 vulnerable countries are G20 nations.
• The combined estimated annual average loss in the G20 countries alone is USD 218 billion, equivalent to 9% of the average annual investment in infrastructure made by them.
• Disaster risk reduction measures can play an important role in preventing such losses.

What can be the key Strategies for Reducing Disaster Risk?

Better Economic and Urban Development:

• Reducing risk can be achieved mainly by reducing vulnerability and exposure to risk through measures such as better economic and urban development choices and practices, protection of the environment, reduction of poverty and inequality, etc.
• For example, in India, effective implementation of flood risk management strategies can help in reducing and managing Extreme Weather Conditions.

Financing:

• There is a need to re-imagine financing disaster risk reduction. The financing requirements flowing through government budgets are not independent of a country’s fiscal position and hence may be limited.
• Innovative financing tools including creating reserve funds, dedicated lines of credit and tapping resources globally should be explored.

Infrastructure:

• Infrastructure, such as roads, rails, airports, and electricity lines created through public revenues need to be resilient to disasters and may require more funds incrementally.
• There is a need to finance this additionality using options that are reflective of the social benefits of such disaster-resilient infrastructure.

Dealing with Extensive and Intensive Risk:

• Differential strategies to deal with extensive risk (risk of losses from frequent but moderate impacts) and intensive risk (from low frequency and high impact events), should be worked out.
• A large portion of the losses accumulate from extensive events.
• Cumulatively, dispersed events such as Heatwaves, lightning, local floods, and landslides cause enormous losses. Implementing targeted approaches to reducing losses from extensive risk events can have an impact in the short to medium-term horizon.

Multi-tiered, Multi-sectoral Effort:

• There is a need to view disaster risk reduction as a multi-tiered, multi-sectoral effort.
• If efforts are integrated vertically from local to sub-national to national to global, and horizontally across sectors, the level of readiness to manage unknown risks will be enhanced.
• The world is interlinked and interdependent, and the G20 can help develop such strategies.

What are the Initiatives for Disaster Risk Reduction?

Global:

• Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030
• The Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS)
• International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction – 13th October
• Green Climate Fund’s Sectoral Guide on Climate Information & Early Warning Systems

India’s Initiatives:

• Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure Society (CDRIS)
• National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP)

Way Forward

• The G20 should foster collaboration and coordination among its members and other stakeholders on early warning systems, disaster-resilient infrastructure, financial frameworks and response systems for disaster risk reduction.
• They should promote innovation and research on disaster risk reduction, especially on the use of technology, data and ecosystems-based approaches.
• There is a need to align disaster risk reduction efforts with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the New Urban Agenda and ensure that no one is left behind.
• The Working Group on Disaster Risk Reduction is an opportunity for the G20 to take a lead in the implementation of the Sendai framework over the next seven years.