General Studies Paper 3

Context: Minimum support price and issues

What is MSP?

• MSP is the minimum price paid to the farmer for procuring food crops.
• It offers an assurance to farmers that their realisation for the agricultural produce will not fall below the stated price.
• MSPs are usually announced at the beginning of the sowing season.
• MSP is recommended by the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP).
• Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approves MSP.
• The Food Corporation of India procures food grain under the price support scheme.

Benefits of MSP

• Incentivise production of a specific food crop which is in short supply.
• Protects farmers from any sharp fall in the market price of a commodity.
• Ensures that the country’s agricultural output responds to the changing needs of its consumers.
• Ex: The government hiked the MSP of pulses to expand sowing of pulses.
• Higher farm profits will encourage farmers to spend more on inputs, technology etc
• Protect farmers from the unwarranted fluctuation in prices, provoked by the international level price variations.

Importance

• Almost half of India’s population is dependent on agriculture for livelihood.
• Farming is a risky business with the farmer’s income dependent on the vagaries of weather, as well
• as local and international price trends.The MSP shields farmers to an extent, from such risks, by guaranteeing a floor price for their produce.
• To achieve food security and tackle shortages of key food items.

Concerns / Challenges

• Sharp and frequent increases in MSP can feed inflation too.
• Government procurement at MSP is benefiting the large traders than farmers. Small farmers typically do not have enough marketable surpluses. Their crop is usually sold to traders at low post-harvest prices in the village itself or the nearest mandi.
• The input costs have been rising faster than sale prices, squeezing the meagre income of the small farmers and driving them into debt
• MSP is attractive towards wheat and rice which is produced by large farmers. Small farmers who mostly dependent on vegetables, pulses, coarse grains are at disadvantage.
• The payments are delayed when the farmers are in immediate need of cash.
• purchase centres were located at distance which required high transportation costs

Way Forward

• Revision of MSP and its provisions are required. Diversification towards other crops like pulses must be done.
• Systematic administrative mechanism that includes personnel, system, infrastructure and scientific mechanism.
• Pre and post planning for the procurement at every location.
• The monitoring at every phase for the efficiency of the process and accountability of the people involved in its implementation.

General Studies Paper 2

Context: Sedition law in India

What is sedition law?

• The Indian Penal Code defines sedition (Section 124A) as an offence committed when “any person by words, either spoken or written, or by signs, or by visible representation, or otherwise, brings or attempts to bring into hatred or contempt, or excites or attempts to excite disaffection towards the government established by law in India”.
• Disaffection includes disloyalty and all feelings of enmity. However, comments without exciting or attempting to excite hatred, contempt or disaffection, will not constitute an offence under this section.

History of Sedition Law in India

• In 1837: Thomas Macaulay (Famous for his Macaulay Minute on Indian Education 1835) drafted the Penal Code in 1837. Sedition was placed in the Penal Code 1837 as Section 113.
• British Raj in India had introduced this section on sedition under the title “Exciting Disaffection”.
• IPC Amendment Act of 1898: It made amendments to the changes brought through the Penal Code in 1870.
• The current Section 124A is said to be similar to the amendments made to it in 1898 with few omissions made in 1937, 1948, 1950, and by Part B States (Law) Act, 1951.

Arguments in support of Sedition law

• Section 124A of the IPC has its utility in combating anti-national, secessionist and terrorist elements.
• It protects the elected government from attempts to overthrow the government with violence and illegal means.
• The continued existence of the government established by law is an essential condition of the stability of the State.
• Many districts in different states face insurgency and rebel groups virtually run a parallel administration.
• These groups openly advocate the overthrow of the state government by revolution.
• Against this backdrop, the abolition of Section 124A would be ill-advised merely because it has been wrongly invoked in some highly publicized cases.

Arguments Against the Sedition Law

• The terms used under Section 124A like ‘disaffection’ are vague and subject to different interpretation
• As the seeds of sedition law were sown in colonial times, it is often described as a draconian law that can be used against what is otherwise is constitutionally guaranteed freedom of speech and expression
• Dissent and criticism of the government are essential ingredients of robust public debate in a vibrant democracy.
• Right to question, criticize and change rulers is very fundamental to the idea of democracy.
• It has an ill effect on constructive criticism. Therefore, sedition laws can demotivate legal and lawful criticism.
• To penalize the offender for disrupting public order, IPC and Unlawful Activities Prevention Act 2019 have provisions that can take care of the punishments.

 Relevant Supreme Court judgements

The Kedar Nath Singh vs State of Bihar case (1962)

• The court ruled that comments-however strongly worded-expressing disapprobation of the actions of the government without causing public disorder by acts of violence would not be penal.

The Balwant Singh vs State of Punjab (1995) case

• In this case, the Supreme Court had clarified that merely shouting slogans does not amount to sedition. Evidently, the sedition law is being both misunderstood and misused to muzzle dissent.

 Way ahead

it is time we define the limits of sedition. Provisions of 124A (sedition) and 153 (promoting enmity between classes) of the IPC require interpretation, particularly on the issue of the rights of press and free speech. India is the largest democracy of the world and the right to free speech and expression is an essential ingredient of democracy. The expression or thought that is not in consonance with the policy of the government of the day should not be considered as sedition Section 124A should not be misused as a tool to curb free speech. The SC caveat, given in Kedar Nath case, on prosecution under the law can check its misuse

General Studies Paper 3

Importance

There is no railway system quite like the Indian railways. Trains remain an essential lifeline in India, the world’s most populous country of 1.4 billion people, carrying about 13 million passengers a day

• The Indian Railways is the lifeline of India. With its vast network across the length and breadth of India, it is not just a mere transporter of passengers and goods but also a social welfare organization.
• Indian Railways (IR) has the 4th longest rail network in the world. It is a network of 70,000 km and runs about 21,000 trains, carrying 23 million passengers and 3 million tons of freight per day.
• Railways stretch their hands in conducting activities like business, sightseeing, pilgrimage along with transportation of goods.
• It is easier for long-distance travel.
• Plays a vital role in national integration.
• Railways hold a major hand in the economy of the country
• It strengthens the development of the industry and agriculture.
• Railways are the most preferred transport.
• They have the capacity to carry huge loads and bulky goods for long and short distances.

Government Initiatives

• Billions have been spent to upgrade and modernize the railway, including a plan to have 100% electrification of the railways by 2024 and the aim for them to go net zero by 2030.
• The railways are also in the process of installing an anti-train collision system, which causes trains to brake automatically
• The government has set a vision of making railways a 100% safe, fast and reliable mode of transport for passengers and freight.
• Dedicated freight corridor
• Diamond quadrilateral network of high-speed rail
• Rising passenger & freight traffic
• Track strengthening
• Elimination of curves and level crossing gates and
• Strengthening of bridges.
• Track fencing especially in densely populated areas.
• Recently there has been a record allocation of funds for infrastructure and safety upgrades, with a particular focus on the introduction of modern new stations and high-speed Vande Bharat – translating as “salute to India”

Issues in Railways

safety concerns

• Rising on the railways and the number of consequential rail accidents on Indian Railways increased by 37% last year. It is a “matter of grave concern”.
• Derailments of trains remain the main cause. Trains to brake automatically, so far operational on 2% of the network only
• Technology had yet to be installed and upgraded on India’s oldest and busiest routes in terms of passengers and trains carrying oil and coal.
• Till January ,2023, 3.12 lakh posts were vacant in the Indian railways these include vacant posts in safety, maintenance and engineering

Service Quality is not up to the mark

• Overburdening of the Railway infrastructure due to heavy passenger load. There laying of new tracks is at slow speed. There is little capital expenditure on the railways.
• The number of stranded projects is also high in Railways.
• Quality of food served to passengers by the Indian railways is not satisfying.
• Dirty Blankets for AC compartments
• There are rising complaints over unclean toilets and sanitation accessories provided to the passengers.
• Redressal mechanism –The complaints raised by passengers on different issues are not addressed properly by the authorities

 Way ahead

while the focus has been on glossy modernization projects, safety remains the biggest problem for the Indian railways. An increasing number of trains have been put on the tracks to meet demand yet the workforce has not risen at the same level, leading to greater pressures on staff and more human error Reforms are needed in IR to ensure that it meets the requirements. To contribute comprehensively in Indian development IR needs administrative reforms, to improve services and efficiency and engineering reforms, to improve cost and environmental effectiveness

General Studies Paper 3

Context: The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) launched the first of the second-generation satellites for its navigation constellation successfully.

• Christened NVS-01, the first of ISRO’s NVS series of payloads is the heaviest in the constellation and was launched by a Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) rocket from Sriharikota.
• Each of the seven satellites currently in the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) constellation, operationally named NavIC, weighed much less.

Features of Second-generation NavIC satellite

• Atomic Clock:The satellite will have a Rubidium atomic clock onboard, a significant technology developed by India which only a handful of countries possess.
  • The satellite-based positioning system determines the location of objects by using the atomic clocks on board; failure of clocks means the satellites are no longer able to provide accurate locations.
  • Several of the existing satellites stopped providing location data after their onboard atomic clocks failed — this was the main reasonfor the launch of the replacement satellite in 2018.
• L1 signals for better use in wearable devices:The second generation satellites will send signals in a third frequency, L1, besides the L5 and S frequency signals that the existing satellites provide, increasing interoperability with other satellite-based navigation systems.
  • The L1 frequency is among the most commonly used in the Global Positioning System (GPS), and will increase the use of the regional navigation system in wearable devices and personal trackers that use low-power, single-frequency chips.
• Longer mission life:The second-generation satellites will also have a longer mission life of more than 12 years. The existing satellites have a mission life of 10 years.

Practical purpose of the NAvIC constellation 

• NavIC is in use for projects like public vehicle safety, power grid synchronisation, real-time train information systems, and fishermen’s safety. 
• Other upcoming initiatives such as common alert protocol based emergency warning, time dissemination, geodetic network, and unmanned aerial vehicles are in the process of adopting the NavIC system.
• Some cell phone chipsets such as the ones built by Qualcomm and MediaTek integrated NavIC receivers in 2019.

Significant Features of regional navigation system

• There are four global satellite-based navigation systems — the American GPS, the Russian GLONASS (GLObalnaya NAvigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema), the European Galileo, and the Chinese Beidou. Japan has a four-satellite system that can augment GPS signals over the country, similar to India’s GAGAN (GPS Aided GEO Augmented Navigation).
• NavIC is better than GPS in some aspects. While GPS can get you within 20 metres of your target, NaVIC is more accurate and can get you even closer—within 5 metres. 
  • For individual users, this might not be significant but for military equipment like guided missiles, it is crucial.
• However, unlike GPS, which can be used anywhere in the world, NaVIC is regional and can only be used within India and up to 1,500 km from its borders.
• NavIC uses satellites in high geo-stationery orbit— the satellites move at a constant speed relative to Earth, so they are always looking over the same region on Earth.
• NavIC signals come to India at a 90-degree angle,making it easier for them to reach devices located even in congested areas, dense forests, or mountains.
• With the use of NavIC picking up, the government has been looking at the possibility of increasing the coverage area of the system.

General Studies Paper 3

Context: India-Russia defence Joint Venture BrahMos Aerospace has embarked on a glorious milestone as it completed  25 years.

• It is a joint venture between India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya.
  • The missile derives its name from the Brahmaputra and Moskva rivers.
• The BrahMos JV was formed in 1998 and the first successful launch of the missile took place in 2001.

Features 

• Stages: BrahMos is a two-stage missile with a solid propellant booster engine.
  • Its first stage brings the missile to supersonic speed and then gets separated.
  • The liquid ramjet or the second stage then takes the missile closer to three times the speed of sound in the cruise phase.
• Capability: The missile is capable of being launched from land, sea, sub-sea and air against surface and sea-based targets and has been long inducted by the Indian armed forces.
  • The ship-based version was inducted in the Navy in 2005, the land-based version in the Army in 2007, and the air-launched version was inducted in the Air Force in 2020.
• Range:  The range of the BrahMos was originally limited to 290 km as per obligations of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) of which Russia was a signatory. Following India’s entry into the club in June 2016, plans were announced to extend the range initially to 450 km and subsequently to 600 km.
• Speed: The BrahMos missile has a speed of 8 Mach, which is nearly three times the speed of sound
• Indigenised: The missiles now contain a high level of indigenised content and several systems have also been indigenised to maximise the participation of Indian industry in the development of the ordnance.

Latest developments

• In January 2023, the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) approved the procurement of Brahmo’s launchers for Shivalik-class frigates and next-generation missile vessels.
• An underwater version is also being developed, which will be exported to friendly foreign nations and used by Indian submarines.
• In January 2022, India’s BrahMos and Philippines Aerospace Limited inked a deal worth around $375 million to procure BrahMos cruise missiles for the Philippines Marines.

Export Potential 

• Since the inception of the BrahMos project, it has been envisaged as a huge export opportunity.
• Over the years many countries have shown an interest in the missile and the missile is generating a lot of global attention, particularly from South America, the Middle East, Asia Pacific and African regions.
• In 2022, there were reports of a possible deal with Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Importance 

• The Brahmos JV has helped India develop its military-industrial complex.
• The deal between the Philippines and BrahMos is a milestone in India’s efforts to become one of the largest defence exporters in the world.
  • In addition, it also shows the growing capabilities of India’s public and private defence sectors.
• It helps the country achieve strategic autonomy in the defence sector, which is important to safeguard the country’s national interests.
• Additional BrahMos exports could to some extent help in fulfilling Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of ‘Making in India, Making for the world’, achieving the defence hardware export target of US$ 5 billion by 2025.
• BrahMos missile provides India strategic airpower in the face of 2 inimical neighbours.

Competitors and Challenges 

• One of the most prominent cruise missiles in the world is the Tomahawk, developed by the US. Notably, it is subsonic and flies around 0.8 Mach.
  • It has a range of about 1,600 km, much more than the BrahMos, but its speed makes it relatively slow and somewhat easier to intercept.
• The French Apacheseries of missiles is also a prominent cruise missile, with a top speed of 1 Mach.
  • This has been inducted by UAE, Greece, Saudi Arabia, the UK and Italy, besides France.
• The Chinese inducted the YJ-1814 into the PLA in 2014. It has a range of 220–540 km and cruises at subsonic speed before accelerating to supersonic speed in the terminal stage.
• TheRussian P-800 Oniks  is a supersonic cruise missile with specifications somewhat similar to BrahMos and flies at a top speed of 2.2 Mach.
  • the BrahMos missile is not significantly different from the P-800 Oniks, it costs twice as much. This can be attributed perhaps to a more developed military industrial base in Russia which results in a lower cost of production.
• Possible defence deals are highly competitive, with major players extensively marketing their products.

Way Ahead

• BrahMos has very few competitors in the international market and The 2022 Philippines deal should spur additional exports of the supersonic cruise missile.
• India needs to more actively develop marketing and promotion networks akin to established players in the global market to promote defence sales.

General Studies Paper 2

Context: Recently, the second Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) Ministerial Meeting took place, showcasing the significant strides made in fostering economic engagement among partner countries in the Indo-Pacific region.

Hosted by the United States, this virtual gathering convened high-level officials to delve into discussions regarding the four pillars of the framework and the ongoing negotiations associated with each pillar.

What are the Key Highlights of the Meeting?

• The meeting announced the substantial conclusion of the negotiations of a first-of-its-kind international IPEF Supply Chain Agreement under Pillar II of the framework, which aims to increase the resilience, efficiency, productivity, sustainability, transparency, diversification, security, fairness, and inclusivity of their supply chains.
• The meeting also reported good progress under the other IPEF Pillars, namely Fair and Resilient Trade (Pillar I), Infrastructure, Clean Energy, and Decarbonization (Pillar III), and Tax and Anti-Corruption (Pillar IV).
• The meeting witnessed the introduction of a regional hydrogen initiative by some IPEF partners to encourage widespread deployment of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen and its derivatives in the region under Pillar III.

What is IPEF?

• It is a US-led initiative that aims to strengthen economic partnership among participating countries to enhance resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.
• IPEF was launched jointly by the USA and other partner countries of the Indo-Pacific region on 23rd May 2022, at Tokyo.

Members:

• Australia, Brunei, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, United States, and Vietnam.

Pillar:

Trade (Pillar I):

• Focuses on enhancing trade engagement among IPEF partner countries.
• Aims to promote economic growth, peace, and prosperity in the region.
• India had joined Pillars II to IV of IPEF while it has an observer status in Pillar-I.

Supply-chain resilience (Pillar II):

• Seeks to make supply chains more resilient, robust, and well-integrated.
• Emphasizes crisis response measures and cooperation to mitigate disruptions.
• Focuses on improving logistics, connectivity, and investments in critical sectors.
• Aims to enhance worker roles through upskilling and reskilling initiatives.

Clean Economy (Pillar III):

• Aims to advance cooperation on clean energy and climate-friendly technologies.
• Focuses on research, development, commercialization, and deployment of clean energy.
• Encourages investment in climate-related projects in the Indo-Pacific region.

Fair Economy (Pillar IV):

• Focuses on implementing effective anti-corruption and tax measures.
• Highlights India’s strong steps in improving legislative and administrative frameworks to combat corruption.
• Reaffirms commitment to implementing UNCAC (United Nations Convention against Corruption) and FATF (Financial Action Task Force) standards.

General Studies Paper 2

Context: The Indian definition of employment does not meet international standards.

Need of obtaining employment statistics

• The global recession of 2008 profoundly affected high-income countries and cast its shadow on countries and sectors closely linked to the global economy.
• In this context, international labour statisticians urged countries to obtain employment statistics that would
  • examine and monitor “conditions of work” and
  • construct measurements “useful for labour-management negotiations”.
• This required good estimates of underemployment resulting in advocacy for a short measurement period to reduce recall bias and limiting focus on activities for pay or profit.

Issues with obtaining employment statistics in India

• Unmatching definition:
  • The Indian definition of employment does not meet international standards. This has resulted in strong recommendations from international bodies to revise India’s definition of who is employed and who is not.
• Validity of International standards for India:
  • The International Labour Organisation (ILO)has urged India to follow the standards laid down by the 19th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS-19), held in 2013.
    • The question is, are these recommendations appropriate for a transitional economy, in which a large proportion of the population continues to engage in agriculture, often supplemented by casual wage work.
  • Two major recommendations of ICLS-19 are: 
    • Employment data should rely on short-term measures of employment, in most cases, a 7-day measure, capturing employment during the preceding week;
    • It should measure all types of work, including unpaid work, but define a person as being employed only if he or she is engaged in producing goods or services for pay or profit.
      • This distinction between work and employment may have critical implications for the measurement of progress towards SDGs.

Challenges for India

• Excluding production of goods or services for own use:
  • Exclusion of production of goods or services for own use was possibly put in place due to a conviction that countries were inflating employment rates for excluded groups, particularly women, by counting distress work instead of providing paying jobs.
  • This would reduce the proportion of individuals defined as being employed by as much as 50 per cent in some conditions. Which could also be the case with India.
• Relying on a one-week reference period:
  • The recommendation to rely on a one-week reference period is even more likely to affect this classification.
  • A vast proportion of rural Indians engage in multiple activities combining farm work with work in construction,MGNREGS work, or other work in nearby towns.
  • However, when it is time to sow or harvest, they devote all their time to farming.
    • When surveys occur during this period, many individuals would be classified as farmers, and based on IHDS estimates, 45 per cent may be classified as producing only for home consumption.
  • Thus, they would not be counted as employed even if they are engaged in income-producing activities during other parts of the year.

Reasons for India’s declining employment

• Opting out of work: 
  • The sharp fall in India’s labour force participation rate (LFPR) suggests that despite India’s young population, many have simply opted out of the labour force, perhaps feeling let down by the absence of remunerative, productive jobs.
• Women face more issues: 
  • The situation is even more dire for women who had a considerably lower participation rate to begin with.
  • India’s female labour force participation is not only lower than the global average, but also lower than countries like Bangladesh.
• Less Jobs: 
  • Post-pandemic, people unable to find jobs remain high among those looking for jobs. Also, the unemployment rate is higher among the younger and more educated.
• More Informal Sector Jobs: 
  • While there are signs of increasing formalisation as indicated by the EPFO data, a substantial share of the labour force continues to remain employed in the informal sector, lacking a safety net.

Way ahead

• Changing definitions would underestimate the strength of the Indian economy and not serve any policy purpose.
• Despite this potential for an artificial decline in employment, the advocacy from international bodies for adopting ICLS-19 recommendations remains strong.
• Unless the statistical system develops the self-confidence to assertively engage with international organisations, is willing to adopt global best practices where it makes sense and resists pressure to do so when it does not serve policy needs, it will continue to be held in low esteem nationally and internationally.

General Studies Paper 3

Context: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released two reports titled “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2023-2027” and “State of Global Climate 2022.”

Major Findings 

• The predictions of the recently released reports point to precipitation anomalies and an increase in marine heat waves as compared to marine cold spells.
• The El Niño, which is currently brewing, will further strengthen this year, resulting in a 98% possibility of witnessing temperatures higher than 2016 at least in one of the years in the 2023-27 period.
• Global surface temperature: The annual mean global surface temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be 1.1-1.8 degree Celsius higher than the baseline temperature of 1850-1900 or pre-industrial levels.
  • In 2022, it was 1.15 degrees above the baseline, and by 2027, the average will exceed 1.5 degrees, a critical point beyond which there may be no return.
• The cryosphere is shrinking, and there is a mass loss of glaciers in High-mountain Asia, Western North America, and South America.
  • Due to the alarming rate of warming of the Arctic Ocean, the Greenlandic ice sheet is melting at a faster pace, contributing to the increase in sea level.

What is the 1.5 degree Celsius target?

• The 1.5 °C is the goal of the Paris Agreement which is a legally binding international treaty on climate change.
  • It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on 12 December 2015. It entered into force on 4 November 2016.
• The Paris Agreement is a landmark in the multilateral climate change process because, for the first time, a binding agreement brings all nations together to combat climate change and adapt to its effects.
• Its overarching goal is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

Why is it needed ?

• In recent years, world leaders have stressed the need to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of this century.
• That’s because the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that crossing the 1.5°C threshold risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.

Issues 

• Historically, developed countries are responsible for a major chunk of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
  • Therefore, they are expected to assume more responsibility and implement climate action.
• However, the Climate Performance Index over the years has shown otherwise.
  • Countries like Australia, the U.S., Japan, Russia and Canada have made little progress in meeting their pledges.
• Additionally, polluters like China, Iran and Saudi Arabia rank low in climate performance.
• The pandemic pushed the world into a socio-economic crisis. On the road to recovery, countries pledged measures to build-back.
  • However, in most cases there is little to no consideration for building-back in a sustainable manner.
• The Ukraine conflict has further added to woes and sparked an energy crisis threatening climate goals.
• For example, warming greater than the global average is being experienced in the Arctic, with the term ‘polar amplification’ gaining more traction.

Global Impacts 

• Climate risks and hazards impact human population and the ecosystem depending on exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity.
  • It has exacerbated food insecurity, displacement, and deaths.
• Climate change has been affecting crop yield negatively and the risks posed by agricultural pests and diseases have also increased in the past few years.
• Countries like Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, and Afghanistan are facing acute food shortages resulting in malnutrition and hunger, demanding urgent humanitarian assistance.
• However, food insecurity in these countries is due to the complex interaction of climate conditions with other factors such as droughts, cyclones, and political and economic instability.
• The heatwaves in Pakistan and India in 2022 resulted in a decline in crop yields.
• The floods in Pakistan affected croplands in southern and central parts of the country and displaced eight million people within the country.
• Aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems have also not been immune to such changes in climate patterns. Phenological shifts and mismatches have been recorded due to climate change.
• The population of migratory species has declined in Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, the warming above 1.5 degree Celsius can prove lethal for coral reefs which are already prone to bleaching.
• According to the WMO, extreme weather anomalies have caused the deaths of two million people and incurred $4.3 trillion in economic damages over the past fifty years. In 2020-2021, 22,608 disaster deaths were recorded globally.

Impact on India

• India has been increasingly facing the brunt of climate change.
• February 2023 was recorded as the hottest month since record-keeping began in 1901.
• In 2022, India witnessed extreme weather events for 80% of the days. Indian monsoons were wetter than usual last year after recording extreme heat during the pre-monsoon period, resulting in wildfires in Uttarakhand and acute food shortages.
• According to the Climate Change Performance Index 2023, India ranked eighth with a high-performance after Denmark, Sweden, Chile, and Morocco.

Way Ahead 

• Being an emerging economy with development needs, India is attempting to balance its development needs with ongoing climate action both at the domestic and international levels.
• With domestic measures like the Green Hydrogen Mission and the introduction of green bonds, India is performing fairly well despite contributing only a miniscule to cumulative GHG emissions. At the international level, through the International Solar Alliance and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, India can prove to be a responsible climate player keeping in mind that it has a long way to go in very little time.

General Studies Paper 2

Context: The recent arrest of former Pakistani Prime Minister led to massive protests across the country. For the first time, violent mobs, including the supporter of former PM, attacked army and paramilitary installations across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Punjab, Balochistan and major cities of Pakistan. The army was not targeted even in the wake of 1971 liberation of Bangladesh, military coups or even post the assassination of popular leaders such as Benazir Bhutto.

The instability in Afghanistan has further added fuel to the fire and the instability in Pakistan could in turn further destabilise Afghanistan. The growing instability in the Pakistan could spill over in no time and can affect the stability of the region.

What is the Current Situation in Pakistan?

Political Rollercoaster:

• Pakistan is facing a political crisis since April 2022, when the former prime minister Imran Khan was ousted from his position in a vote of no confidence. He refused to accept the result and launched a series of protests and rallies, demanding an early election. He also faced many legal charges, including terrorism, corruption and contempt of court.
• The current Pakistani government has accused him of destabilizing the country and undermining democracy.
• They’ve accused Imran Khan of becoming opportunistic and destructive by tapping into the anti-army sentiment among the public.
• The turmoil in Pakistan’s political discourse could result into a Pakistan Spring (Like Arab Spring). There are many similarities between the situations in Pakistan and those in the Arab Spring countries. Some of the similarities include political instability, economic grievances, corruption, youth bulge, civil society activism and media freedom.

Rise of Taliban:

• Since the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Pakistani army has been under siege and the Taliban supported Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is expanding its footprint across Balochistan and Punjab.
• The emboldened TTP and Baloch groups mounted several attacks against the armed forces.
• The Pakistani army is practically fighting a two-front war (internally with TTP & externally with Taliban) and keeping a tight watch on the Iran border.
• The Pakistani army used to be seen as a strong and capable force that could play a smart game of proxy wars has been exposed to be invincible by Taliban.
• The Taliban is now a major threat to Pakistan, and the army is struggling to contain it. This has led to a loss of confidence in the army, and its aura of invincibility has faded.

Army under Seize:

• Street mobilisations after the ouster of Imran Khan have made the army vulnerable. The army today is politically much weaker which may provide a fostering ground for non-state actors like TTP.
• The army’s diminished stature became visible, when protesters could access even General Headquarters with some persuasion. Violent mobs targeted the Corp Commander’s house in Lahore, the Pakistan Military Academy, the air force base, and army patrols in cities.

Economic Crisis:

• The inflation rate in Pakistan is currently over 30%, which is the highest it has been in years. This is making it difficult for people to afford basic necessities, such as food and fuel. The Pakistani rupee has lost over 30% of its value against the US dollar in the past year.
• Recently, a video circulated over social media showed that Pakistanis in some regions are stockpiling LPG in plastic bags as dealers are curtailing supplies due to a lack of cooking gas cylinders. Moving bombs’: Pakistan’s LNG crisis sparks dangerous ‘bag gas’ trade
• The country’s public debt has grown to a staggering USD 250 billion, and the government has failed to secure a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to its inability to implement the required reforms.
• The country is facing a severe shortage of foreign exchange reserves, which have fallen to a 9-year low of less than USD 3 billion meaning that the country does not have enough foreign currency to import essential goods and services.
• The recent climate disasters have added the fuel to the fire, making their economy more vulnerable.

Resentment against China:

• The two provinces (KPK and Balochistan) crucial for CPEC, have become battle grounds for security forces. The army’s steadfast backing of CPEC has brought it to the centre of rising public resentment against Chinese investments.
• The sentiment is so perceptible that following his recent visit to Pakistan, the Chinese foreign minister stressed that some forces had fabricated the rumour that China created a “debt trap” in Pakistan.

What are the Threats to India?

• Escalation of Cross-Border Tensions: Pakistan’s political crisis may lead to a rise in cross-border tensions, particularly along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. Pakistan may resort to provoking India by supporting militant groups or violating the ceasefire agreement to divert attention from its domestic problems or to rally public support behind the government or the military.
• Refugee Crisis: The economic crisis in Pakistan could lead to a refugee crisis, with millions of Pakistanis fleeing the country. This could put a strain on India’s resources and could also lead to an increase in crime and social unrest.
• Compromised Regional Security: The current crisis in Pakistan could lead to regional instability, as Pakistan becomes more dependent on its neighbours for support. This could lead to increased tensions between Pakistan and its neighbours, including India.
• Nuclear Proliferation: Any political or economic instability in Pakistan that weakens its control over its nuclear arsenal could potentially lead to concerns about the security and safety of those weapons. This could raise tensions and pose a threat to regional stability.

What are the Opportunities for India?

Counterterrorism Cooperation:

• Pakistan’s political and economic situation can provide an opportunity for India to engage with the international community in addressing the issue of cross-border terrorism.
• By highlighting Pakistan’s support for terrorism, India can strengthen its case for global cooperation in combating terrorism and isolating state-sponsored terror networks.

Regional Power Projection:

• India can demonstrate its ability to maintain stability and handle regional challenges effectively, contrasting with the internal strife faced by Pakistan.
• Strengthening regional alliances and partnerships, particularly with countries in South Asia and the Middle East, could enhance India’s position as a responsible regional power.

Strengthening Regional Connectivity:

• India can capitalize on Pakistan’s current challenges by promoting regional connectivity initiatives, such as the Chabahar port in Iran or the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
• These projects can bolster India’s access to Central Asia, Afghanistan, and beyond, enabling trade diversification and enhancing India’s regional influence.

Economic Cooperation with Other Countries:

• India can position itself as a stable and attractive investment destination in the region.
• With Pakistan facing economic challenges, India can leverage its economic growth and stability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and foster closer economic ties with other nations.
• This can lead to increased trade partnerships and collaborations, further enhancing India’s economic standing.

What can India do in such a situation?

• “Victims of terrorism do not sit together with perpetrators of terrorism to discuss terrorism”. But India can give a chance to desperate Pakistan of formal talks of it agrees to stop terrorism, resolve Kashmir issuePakistan needs the talks desperately.
• India can use its diplomatic leverage to isolate Pakistan internationally and expose its alleged support for terrorism and human rights violations.
• The crises in Pakistan have shown that the country is unable to effectively govern itself. India can use this to its advantage by pressuring Pakistan to change its behaviour on issues such as terrorism and nuclear proliferation.
• Amidst such a crisis, India must prioritize its border security and enhance its military preparedness to contain insurgencies, cross-border aggression, or provocation from Pakistan.
• India could strengthen its economic and strategic ties with Iran, and other Central Asian countries to counter Pakistan’s influence in the region.

Conclusion:

• Dealing with Pakistan’s establishment that has supported anti-India terrorist groups is unpleasant. Nonetheless, permitting Pakistan to come under the influence of extremist Islamists would present an even graver situation. India must make efforts to stabilize the conditions in Pakistan, as the repercussions such as border tensions and insurgencies will directly impact India.

General Studies Paper 2

Context: The Indian definition of employment does not meet international standards.

Need of obtaining employment statistics

• The global recession of 2008 profoundly affected high-income countries and cast its shadow on countries and sectors closely linked to the global economy.
• In this context, international labour statisticians urged countries to obtain employment statistics that would
  • examine and monitor “conditions of work” and
  • construct measurements “useful for labour-management negotiations”.
• This required good estimates of underemployment resulting in advocacy for a short measurement periodto reduce recall bias and limiting focus on activities for pay or profit.

Issues with obtaining employment statistics in India

• Unmatching definition:
  • The Indian definition of employment does not meet international standards. This has resulted in strong recommendations from international bodies to revise India’s definition of who is employed and who is not.
• Validity of International standards for India:
  • The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has urged India to follow the standards laid down by the 19th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS-19), held in 2013.
    • The question is, are these recommendations appropriate for a transitional economy, in which a large proportion of the population continues to engage in agriculture, often supplemented by casual wage work.
  • Two major recommendations of ICLS-19 are: 
    • Employment data should rely on short-term measures of employment, in most cases, a 7-day measure, capturing employment during the preceding week;
    • It should measure all types of work, including unpaid work, but define a person as being employed only if he or she is engaged in producing goods or services for pay or profit.
      • This distinction between work and employment may have critical implications for the measurement of progress towards SDGs.

Challenges for India

• Excluding production of goods or services for own use:
  • Exclusion of production of goods or services for own use was possibly put in place due to a conviction that countries were inflating employment rates for excluded groups, particularly women, by counting distress work instead of providing paying jobs.
  • This would reduce the proportion of individuals defined as being employed by as much as 50 per cent in some conditions. Which could also be the case with India.
• Relying on a one-week reference period:
  • The recommendation to rely on a one-week reference period is even more likely to affect this classification.
  • A vast proportion of rural Indians engage in multiple activities combining farm work with work in construction,MGNREGS work, or other work in nearby towns.
  • However, when it is time to sow or harvest, they devote all their time to farming.
    • When surveys occur during this period, many individuals would be classified as farmers, and based on IHDS estimates, 45 per cent may be classified as producing only for home consumption.
  • Thus, they would not be counted as employed even if they are engaged in income-producing activities during other parts of the year.

Reasons for India’s declining employment

• Opting out of work: 
  • The sharp fall in India’s labour force participation rate (LFPR) suggests that despite India’s young population, many have simply opted out of the labour force, perhaps feeling let down by the absence of remunerative, productive jobs.
• Women face more issues: 
  • The situation is even more dire for women who had a considerably lower participation rate to begin with.
  • India’s female labour force participation is not only lower than the global average, but also lower than countries like Bangladesh.
• Less Jobs: 
  • Post-pandemic, people unable to find jobs remain high among those looking for jobs. Also, the unemployment rate is higher among the younger and more educated.
• More Informal Sector Jobs: 
  • While there are signs of increasing formalisation as indicated by the EPFO data, a substantial share of the labour force continues to remain employed in the informal sector, lacking a safety net.

Way ahead

• Changing definitions would underestimate the strength of the Indian economy and not serve any policy purpose.
• Despite this potential for an artificial decline in employment, the advocacy from international bodies for adopting ICLS-19 recommendations remains strong.

Unless the statistical system develops the self-confidence to assertively engage with international organisations, is willing to adopt global best practices where it makes sense and resists pressure to do so when it does not serve policy needs, it will continue to be held in low esteem nationally and internationally.