Reports on Global Warming of 1.5 °C

General Studies Paper 3

Context: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released two reports titled “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2023-2027” and “State of Global Climate 2022.”

Major Findings 

• The predictions of the recently released reports point to precipitation anomalies and an increase in marine heat waves as compared to marine cold spells.
• The El Niño, which is currently brewing, will further strengthen this year, resulting in a 98% possibility of witnessing temperatures higher than 2016 at least in one of the years in the 2023-27 period.
• Global surface temperature: The annual mean global surface temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be 1.1-1.8 degree Celsius higher than the baseline temperature of 1850-1900 or pre-industrial levels.
  • In 2022, it was 1.15 degrees above the baseline, and by 2027, the average will exceed 1.5 degrees, a critical point beyond which there may be no return.
• The cryosphere is shrinking, and there is a mass loss of glaciers in High-mountain Asia, Western North America, and South America.
  • Due to the alarming rate of warming of the Arctic Ocean, the Greenlandic ice sheet is melting at a faster pace, contributing to the increase in sea level.

What is the 1.5 degree Celsius target?

• The 1.5 °C is the goal of the Paris Agreement which is a legally binding international treaty on climate change.
  • It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on 12 December 2015. It entered into force on 4 November 2016.
• The Paris Agreement is a landmark in the multilateral climate change process because, for the first time, a binding agreement brings all nations together to combat climate change and adapt to its effects.
• Its overarching goal is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

Why is it needed ?

• In recent years, world leaders have stressed the need to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of this century.
• That’s because the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that crossing the 1.5°C threshold risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.

Issues 

• Historically, developed countries are responsible for a major chunk of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
  • Therefore, they are expected to assume more responsibility and implement climate action.
• However, the Climate Performance Index over the years has shown otherwise.
  • Countries like Australia, the U.S., Japan, Russia and Canada have made little progress in meeting their pledges.
• Additionally, polluters like China, Iran and Saudi Arabia rank low in climate performance.
• The pandemic pushed the world into a socio-economic crisis. On the road to recovery, countries pledged measures to build-back.
  • However, in most cases there is little to no consideration for building-back in a sustainable manner.
• The Ukraine conflict has further added to woes and sparked an energy crisis threatening climate goals.
• For example, warming greater than the global average is being experienced in the Arctic, with the term ‘polar amplification’ gaining more traction.

Global Impacts 

• Climate risks and hazards impact human population and the ecosystem depending on exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity.
  • It has exacerbated food insecurity, displacement, and deaths.
• Climate change has been affecting crop yield negatively and the risks posed by agricultural pests and diseases have also increased in the past few years.
• Countries like Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, and Afghanistan are facing acute food shortages resulting in malnutrition and hunger, demanding urgent humanitarian assistance.
• However, food insecurity in these countries is due to the complex interaction of climate conditions with other factors such as droughts, cyclones, and political and economic instability.
• The heatwaves in Pakistan and India in 2022 resulted in a decline in crop yields.
• The floods in Pakistan affected croplands in southern and central parts of the country and displaced eight million people within the country.
• Aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems have also not been immune to such changes in climate patterns. Phenological shifts and mismatches have been recorded due to climate change.
• The population of migratory species has declined in Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, the warming above 1.5 degree Celsius can prove lethal for coral reefs which are already prone to bleaching.
• According to the WMO, extreme weather anomalies have caused the deaths of two million people and incurred $4.3 trillion in economic damages over the past fifty years. In 2020-2021, 22,608 disaster deaths were recorded globally.

Impact on India

• India has been increasingly facing the brunt of climate change.
• February 2023 was recorded as the hottest month since record-keeping began in 1901.
• In 2022, India witnessed extreme weather events for 80% of the days. Indian monsoons were wetter than usual last year after recording extreme heat during the pre-monsoon period, resulting in wildfires in Uttarakhand and acute food shortages.
• According to the Climate Change Performance Index 2023, India ranked eighth with a high-performance after Denmark, Sweden, Chile, and Morocco.

Way Ahead 

• Being an emerging economy with development needs, India is attempting to balance its development needs with ongoing climate action both at the domestic and international levels.
• With domestic measures like the Green Hydrogen Mission and the introduction of green bonds, India is performing fairly well despite contributing only a miniscule to cumulative GHG emissions. At the international level, through the International Solar Alliance and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, India can prove to be a responsible climate player keeping in mind that it has a long way to go in very little time.