General Studies Paper-2

Context: The Union Defence Minister questioned the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and called for its supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

About

• Pakistan has tried to leverage its nuclear status against India.
• While India follows a no-first-use policy when it comes to nuclear weapons, Pakistan doesn’t have any such stated policy of restraint.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal

• Pakistan first tested nuclear weapons in 1998 in response to nuclear tests by India.
• Pakistan has vastly expanded its nuclear forces and remains outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime; the country is also a major source of proliferation concern.
• It is believed to possess an arsenal of about 170 nuclear warheads.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

• It is an international organization that promotes the peaceful use of nuclear energy while working to prevent its use for military purposes, including nuclear weapons.
• It was established in 1957.
  • Headquarters: Vienna, Austria.
  • Membership: 180 (as of 15 November 2024).
  • Motto: “Atoms for Peace and Development”.
  • Main Objective: Promote Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy.
• IAEA Safeguards are embedded in legally binding agreements.
• These safeguards are accepted by the states after the conclusion of such agreements with the agency.
• In 2005, the IAEA and its Director General, Mohamed ElBaradei, were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for their work for a safer and more peaceful world.
• Role:
  • Nuclear Safeguards and Verification: Monitors nuclear programs of member states to ensure they are not diverted to weapons programs, especially under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
  • Nuclear Safety and Security: Assists countries in strengthening nuclear safety standards, responding to emergencies, and preventing nuclear terrorism.
  • Technical Cooperation: Provides technical assistance to developing countries to use nuclear technology for sustainable development.
  • Role in Global Affairs: Works closely with the United Nations (UN) (it reports to the UN General Assembly and Security Council).
  • Plays a critical role in non-proliferation diplomacy, such as inspecting Iran’s nuclear program.

India and Its Nuclear Safety Commitments

• In 2014, India ratified the Additional Protocol (AP), which granted the IAEA greater access to India’s civil nuclear programme.
• India has signed an item-specific safeguards agreement under the IAEA along with Pakistan and Israel.
• They are nuclear-power states that are not a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
• India also changed its export laws to line up with the NSG, MTCR, Wassenaar Arrangement, and Australia Group — the four key nuclear control regimes.

India-Pakistan Nuclear Installation Agreement

• Signed in 1988 and brought into force in 1991, Non-nuclear aggression agreement (NAA) commits the two countries to abstain from attacking each other’s civilian nuclear facilities.
• It requires an annual exchange of the exact locations by latitude and longitude of power plants, enrichment labs, isotope separation units, and any site holding a significant quantity of radioactive material.
• The goal is to avoid triggering a nuclear catastrophe. However, the agreement does not mandate detailed disclosures about the nature or activities of these facilities.
• India has repeatedly proposed expanding the agreement to include a pledge not to target civilian and economic infrastructure, but Pakistan has consistently rejected such proposals.

Conclusion

• Pakistan’s lack of a declared no-first-use nuclear policy, in contrast to India’s commitment to such a doctrine, contributes to strategic instability in South Asia, raising the risk of escalation in the event of a conflict.
• Pakistan uses its nuclear capability to counter India’s conventional military edge, but its unrestrained doctrine highlights the need for confidence-building, dialogue, and regional arms control to maintain long-term peace and stability.

General Studies Paper-2

Context: The annual crude birth rates for Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Kerala are declining at twice the rate of the national average.

About

• The data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2021, was released by the Registrar General of India.
• The SRS is the largest demographic survey in the country, meant to provide annual estimates on fertility and mortality indicators such as birth rates, death rates, etc.
• The crude birth rate (CBR) is a demographic measure that indicates the number of live births per 1,000 people in a population during a specific time period, usually a year.

Major Findings

• India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has remained constant at 2.0 in 2021, the same as in 2020.
• The average number of children born to a woman during her childbearing years.
• A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level needed to maintain a stable population.
• All-India crude birth rate was 19.3 in 2021, dropping at a rate of 1.12% every year from 2016 to 2021.
• The birth rate for Tamil Nadu has been declining at a rate of 2.35% every year, Delhi’s has been declining at a rate of 2.23% and Kerala’s is dropping at a rate of 2.05%.
• Birth rates were seen declining faster than the national average for Maharashtra (1.57%), Gujarat (1.24%), Odisha (1.34%), Himachal Pradesh (1.29%), Haryana (1.21%), and Jammu and Kashmir (1.47%).
• The slowest rate of decline in birth rate was seen in States such as Rajasthan (0.48%), Bihar (0.86%), Chhattisgarh (0.98%), Jharkhand (0.98%), Assam (1.05%), Madhya Pradesh (1.05%), West Bengal (1.08%), and Uttar Pradesh (1.09%).
• Rise in the number of registered births were seen in about 11 States and union territories: Bihar, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Lakshadweep, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Nagaland.
• Total fertility rate (TFR): States such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh had a TFR higher than the national average.
  • The TFR measures the average number of children expected to be born per woman during her entire span of reproductive period.
• Gross reproduction rate (GRR): The GRR for India stood at 1, meaning that on an average, each woman in India is having one daughter who survives to reproductive age and has children of her own.
  • In Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh the GRR was significantly higher than the India average.

Concerns

• Uneven Decline in Birth Rates Across States: Some states (e.g., Bihar, UP, MP, Rajasthan) show slow or minimal decline in birth rates, contributing to regional population imbalances.
• These high-birth-rate states may continue to drive overall population growth, putting pressure on resources, infrastructure, and services.
• Demographic Divergence Between Regions: Southern and western States are moving toward or below replacement-level fertility, while northern and eastern States remain above it.
  • This creates policy and planning complexity — a “two-speed” demographic transition in the country.
• Aging Population Risk in Low Fertility States: States with low TFR (e.g., Kerala, West Bengal) risk aging population challenges shrinking labor force, increased burden on healthcare and pensions, and need for revised economic and social policies.
• Persistent High Fertility in Some States: Despite national TFR at 2.0, states like Bihar (TFR 3.0) and UP (TFR 2.7) still report high fertility.
  • Indicates gaps in education, healthcare, and awareness, particularly in rural and underserved areas.

Way Ahead

• Enhance Family Planning Services: Expand access to contraception and reproductive health, especially in high-fertility states.
• Promote Female Education: Focus on girl child education and awareness to delay marriage and childbirth.
• Improve Data Quality: Align and strengthen SRS and CRS systems; expedite the delayed Census for accurate planning.
• Prepare for Aging Population: In low-fertility states, build systems for elderly care, healthcare, and pensions.
• Address Regional Imbalances: Promote development in high-growth regions through jobs, education, and infrastructure.
• Policy Coordination: Ensure Centre-State collaboration and flexible funding for population control programs.

General Studies Paper-2

Context: Colombia formally agreed to join China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.

About Belt and Road Initiative

• Genesis: Launched in 2013 by Chinese President Xi Jinping under the initial name One Belt One Road (OBOR).
• Aim: To enhance regional integration, boost trade, and stimulate economic growth by developing infrastructure and connectivity across Asia, Africa, and Europe.
• Key Components:
  • Silk Road Economic Belt: Overland routes connecting China to Central Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
  • 21st Century Maritime Silk Road: Sea routes connecting China’s eastern coast to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa, and Europe.

China’s Economic Influence & US Concerns

• China is now the largest trading partner of several Latin American countries (Brazil, Chile, Peru).
• China is expanding its footprint through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), while the U.S. views Chinese presence near strategic locations like the Panama Canal as a national security threat.
• The U.S. accuses China of trapping countries in unsustainable debt for geopolitical leverage.

India’s Concerns with BRI

• Sovereignty Concerns: A major point of contention for India is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under the BRI, which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), a territory India claims as its own.
• Security Threats: Like Nepal formally joined the BRI in 2017 and China’s increasing infrastructure projects in Nepal, particularly those close to the border (like the Chinese-funded airport in Pokhara), are seen as potentially compromising India’s security
• Erosion of Regional Influence: BRI projects in Nepal and other South Asian nations (Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh) reflect China’s growing political-economic footprint, diluting India’s traditional sphere of influence.
  • Part of the broader “String of Pearls” strategy — perceived Chinese effort to encircle India with pro-China regimes or strategic assets.
• Debt Trap Diplomacy: India is wary that China might use its economic leverage through the BRI to ensnare smaller neighboring countries like Nepal in debt traps.

General Studies Paper-2

Context: The recently signed India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is expected to enhance exports, create jobs, and strengthen supply chains, with India’s textile sector being a key beneficiary.

About the Free Trade Agreement (FTA)

• It is a bilateral or multilateral trade pact that eliminates or reduces tariffs, quotas, and trade barriers between participating countries, fostering economic cooperation and market access.

Key Points in the India-UK FTA

• Zero-Duty Access for Indian Exports: The deal eliminates import tariffs on over 99.3% of animal products, 99.8% of vegetable/oil products, and 99.7% of processed foods, making Indian goods more competitive in the UK market.
• Expanding Trade Partnership: The UK currently imports goods worth $815.5 billion, primarily from China (12%), the US (11%), and Germany (9%).
  • India holds about 1.8% share ($15.3 billion) in UK imports, ranking as the UK’s 12th largest trading partner.
• India-UK Trade Goals for 2030: As of 2024, India-UK trade in goods amounted to $23.3 billion, with $8.06 billion in UK exports to India.
  • The FTA sets an ambitious target of reaching $120 billion in trade by 2030.
  • UK Export From India: Pearls, nuclear reactors, spirits, and vehicles.
  • UK Import From India: Machinery, mineral fuels, pharmaceuticals, apparel, and footwear.
• Strategic Trade Partnerships: The agreement strengthens the India-UK Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, fostering trade, investment, innovation, and job creation.
  • India is negotiating FTAs with the EU and the US, targeting duty-free access to high-value markets.

India’s Advantage: India-UK FTA

• India’s textile and apparel industry, employing over 45 million people, stands to gain greater access to high-end UK markets.
• The FTA eliminates tariffs on apparel exports, making Indian products more price-competitive.
• Current India’s Market Share With UK: The UK imports $26.9 billion worth of Textile & Apparel products annually, with $19.6 billion dedicated to apparel.
  • China dominates the market (25% share, $4.9 billion), followed by Bangladesh (20%, $3.9 billion).
  • India holds a modest 6% share ($1.19 billion), leaving significant room for expansion post-FTA.

Structural Challenges Facing India’s Textile & Apparel Sector 

• Fragmented Manufacturing Base: Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) operate in silos across multiple states, limiting efficiency and coordination.
• Disjointed Value Chain: Cotton is grown in Gujarat and Maharashtra, yarn is spun in Tamil Nadu, fabric is processed elsewhere, and garments are stitched at different locations.
  • It raises logistics costs and causes delays—India’s order-to-delivery cycle takes 63 days, compared to 50 days in Bangladesh.
• Policy Limitations on MMFs: India’s MMF segment lags behind global preferences, hindered by an inverted GST structure where fibre inputs are taxed higher than finished products, making Indian MMF garments globally uncompetitive.

Policy Interventions Needed for Growth

• Swift Operationalization of PM MITRA Parks: Government-backed PM MITRA parks, particularly in Navsari (Gujarat) and Virudhunagar (Tamil Nadu), must be expedited to boost textile exports.
• Simplification of Export Compliance: Streamlining complex regulatory processes and eliminating compliance-heavy hurdles can significantly improve trade efficiency.
• Rationalizing GST Duty Structure in MMFs: A revised GST framework is crucial to level the playing field, allowing Indian MMF apparel to be price-competitive internationally.
• Strategic Trade Negotiations Beyond the UK: While the India-UK FTA offers zero-duty access, India must secure duty-free entry into the EU ($193.6 billion apparel market) and the US ($83.6 billion apparel market).
  • Bangladesh and Vietnam enjoy duty-free access to the EU, whereas the US has significantly reduced Chinese dominance through high reciprocal tariffs—offering India a rare opportunity to capture market share.

Closing the Gaps

• High-Value Apparel Design: Indian manufacturers must focus on premium designs to appeal to UK buyers.
• Supply Chain Efficiency: Enhancing production speed and quality control will increase export volumes.
• Sustainable and Ethical Standards: Adapting to UK regulations on environmental sustainability and fair labor practices will improve market acceptance.

Enhancing Practices and Product Innovation

• Meeting Global Fashion Aesthetics and Compliance Standards: The EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), set for 2029, will require Indian suppliers to adopt ESG compliance, traceability, and green audits.
• Compliance with UK Standards: Indian exporters need to align with UK regulations on sustainability and ethical sourcing.
• Scaling Up Value-Added Textile Segments: India needs to focus on activewear, athleisure, and technical textiles, which dominate the global MMF market.
• Investing in functional and performance fabrics will allow Indian firms to integrate into premium retail supply chains.

Conclusion

• The India-UK FTA presents a transformative opportunity for India’s textile sector, offering tariff benefits, employment growth, and stronger trade partnerships.
• Timely adaptation to market trends and sustainability standards will ensure long-term success for Indian textile exports.

General Studies Paper-3

Context: The U.S. and China agreed to suspend most tariffs on each other’s goods.

Background

Why were Tariffs Levied?

• Trade Imbalance: The U.S. Trade Representative pointed to a $1.2 trillion trade deficit with the rest of the world as justification for tariffs.
• The Trump administration viewed this as the U.S. being “ripped off” by trading partners who protected and subsidized their own industries while benefiting from open U.S. markets.
  • Strategic Protectionism: The administration believed that talking had not helped change global trade behavior, so high tariffs were seen as a tool to force other countries to open their markets.

Revised Tariffs After Geneva Talks

• Both have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially move down the tariff levels.
• The deal means “reciprocal” tariffs between both countries will be cut from 125% to 10%.
• The U.S.′ 20% duties on Chinese imports relating to fentanyl will remain in place, meaning total tariffs on China stand at 30%.

Why Was There a Truce?

• China’s Retaliation: Unlike other countries, China responded with its own counter-tariffs and non-tariff barriers escalating the trade conflict.
• Economic Concerns in the U.S.: At peak levels (U.S.: 145%, China: 125%), tariffs became prohibitively expensive for consumers and businesses.
  • Example: A $100 Chinese product became $245 in the U.S.
  • The U.S. economy began contracting in Q1 2025 — even before the full impact of the tariffs had hit.
  • Economists predicted a recession and possibly stagflation (a rare combo of economic stagnation and inflation).
• Consumer Pressure:S. consumers faced rising prices and shrinking product availability, especially at major retailers like Walmart.
  • Public and political pressure mounted as economic conditions worsened.
• China’s Economic Resilience: While China’s exports to the U.S. dropped 21%, its overall exports rose 8%, and GDP grew 5.4% in the same quarter.
  • China’s global trade surplus increased, indicating that it had managed to diversify and offset the U.S. losses.

Way Ahead

• The current agreement is a truce, not a full trade deal.
• Market reactions have been positive — stocks and the dollar rose, while gold and bonds fell, indicating reduced risk perception.
• However, the talks that follow will be complex, and no guarantees exist for a comprehensive trade deal.

General Studies Paper-3

Context: India, now among the top global generators of electronic waste (e-waste), faces a critical challenge in managing the growing volume of obsolete electronic devices.

E-Waste in India

• E-waste refers to the discarded electronic and electrical devices that have reached the end of their lifespan or become obsolete due to rapid technological changes, including computers, phones, TVs, and other equipment.
• India ranks as the third-largest producer of electronic waste globally, following China and the United States.
• Growth: India’s e-waste increased by 151.03% over six years, from 7.08 lakh metric tonnes in 2017-18 to 17.78 lakh metric tonnes in 2023-24.

Impact of Improper E-Waste Management

• Environmental Degradation:
  • Water Pollution: Toxic discharge from cyanide and sulphuric acid affects water bodies.
  • Air Pollution: Emissions from lead fumes and plastic burning are severe.
  • Soil Contamination: Hazardous substances leach into the soil, damaging agriculture and biodiversity.
• Social Costs:
  • Informal Sector Dominance: 95% of e-waste is recycled informally, involving mostly women and children.
  • Health Hazards: Average lifespan in informal e-waste workers is under 27 years due to toxic exposure.
• Economic Loss:
  • India is estimated to forfeit over ₹80,000 crore worth of critical metals each year, which could have been recovered and re-used in manufacturing.
  • It is estimated that India loses at least $20 billion annually in potential tax revenue due to the absence of formal accounting and regulatory oversight in the e-waste recycling sector.

Challenges in E-Waste Management

• Lack of Consumer Incentives: Consumers lack economic or logistical incentives to dispose of e-waste responsibly.
• Sparse Collection Infrastructure: There is a dearth of authorised collection centres, especially in Tier-II and Tier-III cities.
• Informal scrap dealers remain the primary point of contact for most consumers.
• Unsafe Recycling Practices: Over 90–95% of e-waste is handled by the informal sector, which uses crude methods such as acid leaching, open burning, and manual dismantling without protective gear.
• Grey Channel Imports: Used electronic goods often enter India under the guise of “donations” or “refurbished items,” which eventually become waste.

E-Waste Management Framework

• Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR): Producers, importers, and brand owners are made responsible for managing their product’s end-of-life waste.
• An online EPR E-Waste portal has been developed by Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) where entities such as producers, manufacturers, recyclers, and refurbishers of the e-waste are required to be registered.
• The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has comprehensively revised the E-Waste (Management) Rules, 2016 and notified the E-Waste (Management) Rules, 2022.
• India’s first e-waste clinic was inaugurated in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh.
• It’s a facility for segregating, processing, and disposing of e-waste from both households and commercial units.

Concluding remarks

• India’s e-waste challenge reflects a broader conflict between technological advancement and environmental sustainability.
• As the country climbs the digital ladder, it must not let toxic waste undermine its economic and ecological foundation.
• The goal should not merely be to manage e-waste, but to extract value, protect health, and foster green economic growth—all of which are essential to India’s journey toward Viksit Bharat.

General Studies Paper-3

Context: The Union Government approved an additional 2.8 million tonnes of rice from the Food Corporation of India (FCI) stock for ethanol production, raising the total allocation for the Ethanol Supply Year (ESY) 2024–25 to 5.2 million tonnes.

About

• The decision, under the Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) Programme, aims to accelerate biofuel use, but has reignited concerns over the diversion of food grains from food security to fuel needs.

What is Ethanol and the EBP Programme?

• Ethanol is an alcohol-based biofuel made through the fermentation of sugar, starch, or cellulose derived from crops like sugarcane, maize, and rice. When blended with petrol, it helps reduce vehicular emissions and dependence on fossil fuels.
• The Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) Programme was launched in 2003 and accelerated since 2014. It mandates the blending of ethanol with petrol.
• India has achieved its E20 target — 20% ethanol blending in petrol by 2025 — and now aims to reach 30% blending by 2030.

Significance of the Move

• Energy Security: Helps reduce India’s import dependence on crude oil and promotes energy self-reliance.
• Climate Benefits: Ethanol is a cleaner fuel that emits fewer greenhouse gases compared to pure petrol.
• Rural Economy Boost: Creates demand for surplus agricultural produce, potentially benefiting farmers through better prices.
• Policy Push for Green Energy: Aligns with India’s commitment under the Paris Agreement and targets for renewable energy use.

Concerns Regarding the Move

• Food Security Risk: Diverting 5.2 million tonnes of rice from central buffer stocks could strain the Public Distribution System (PDS), especially during drought years or inflationary periods.
• Price Distortion: Cheap supply of FCI rice (₹50/kg) to distilleries may affect open market prices and hurt the poor.
• Ecological Unsustainability: Rice is a water-intensive crop, and its use for ethanol raises concerns in water-stressed regions.
• Inefficient Use of Resources: Critics argue that ethanol from food grains is not the most efficient or ethical route, especially when alternatives like second-generation (2G) ethanol from waste biomass exist.
• Distortion of Agricultural Priorities: Over-reliance on a few ethanol feedstocks (rice, sugarcane, maize) may affect crop diversification and soil health.

Way Forward

• Focus should shift towards 2G ethanol (from agricultural waste and non-food biomass).
• Establish clear guidelines balancing food security with biofuel goals.
• Improve ethanol production efficiency from non-edible sources.
• Ensure transparent audits on the use of diverted grains and their impact on PDS stocks.

General Studies Paper-2

Context: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) decided to allow for “an immediate disbursement” of $1 billion (around Rs 8,500 crore) to Pakistan.

• This disbursal was done as part of IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to Pakistan.

What is the Extended Fund Facility (EFF)?

• The Extended Fund Facility is a loan-based support mechanism provided by the IMF to countries that suffer from medium-term balance of payments problems, particularly due to structural deficiencies in their economies.
• Unlike short-term bailouts, the EFF is designed to assist countries in implementing structural reforms that take time to yield results.
• According to the IMF, EFF loans:
  • Offer longer repayment periods
  • Support reforms in fiscal governance, banking, taxation, etc.
  • Target countries with long-standing issues such as poor infrastructure, financial instability, or chronic budget deficits
• It is not financial aid or a grant—countries are expected to repay these funds along with agreed interest.

Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF)

• It provides affordable, long-term financing to support low- and vulnerable middle-income countries in implementing macro-critical reforms to address balance of payments risks, particularly those related to climate change and pandemic preparedness.
• It aims to strengthen macroeconomic resilience by supporting policy reforms that reduce these risks and enhance financial buffers.

Why does the IMF consider Pakistan for EFF Assistance?

• Despite its strategic ambitions, Pakistan’s economic fundamentals have steadily deteriorated over the past two decades.
• Stagnant GDP: Pakistan’s GDP in 2023 stood at $338 billion, lower than in 2017.
• Rising Inflation: Double-digit inflation for five consecutive years—culminating in 23.4% in 2024.
• Debt Dependence: Pakistan has availed 28 IMF loans in 35 years and borrowed from China, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Paris Club, Islamic Development Bank, and others.
• Weak Fundamentals: Low savings and investment, poor infrastructure, limited female workforce participation, and consistent fiscal mismanagement.
• According to the IMF, Pakistan’s recent efforts under the EFF have shown signs of progress:
  • Inflation dropped significantly to 0.3% in April 2025
  • Increase in foreign exchange reserves
  • Structural reforms like the Agricultural Income Tax and improved fiscal controls.

India’s Dissent: Strategic and Security Concerns

• India formally conveyed its strong objections to the IMF Board regarding the disbursement, highlighting two major concerns:
• Track Record of Misuse: India pointed to Pakistan’s poor utilization of previous IMF loans, often failing to implement promised reforms or misallocating funds.
• National Security Threats: Citing state-sponsored cross-border terrorism, India warned that the debt financing might be indirectly used to fund military or terror activities against India.
• While the IMF Executive Board does not allow member countries to vote “against” such proposals, India abstained from the decision as a diplomatic expression of protest.

General Studies Paper-2

Context: The Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2021, released by the Registrar General of India (RGI), highlights that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has remained constant at 2.0 in 2021, the same as in 2020.

• The survey was conducted in 8,842 sample units across all States, covering about 84 lakh sample population.

Sample Registration System (SRS)

• The Sample Registration System (SRS) is a large-scale demographic survey in India used to collect data on births and deaths, providing annual estimates of vital rates like birth rate, death rate, and infant mortality rate.
• Key features of SRS:
  • Dual Record System: The system uses two sources of information: continuous enumeration by part-time enumerators and six-monthly retrospective surveys by supervisors.
  • Sample-Based: SRS operates on a sample of villages and urban blocks, making it cost-effective and efficient.

Key findings of the report

• Bihar has reported the highest TFR at 3.0, while Delhi and West Bengal reported the lowest TFR of 1.4.
• Demographic Shifts (1971–2021):
  • 0–14 age group: Declined from 41.2% to 24.8%, indicating a falling young population.
  • 15–59 age group (working age): Increased from 53.4% to 66.2%, representing a demographic dividend window.
• The elderly population has gone up from 5.3% to 5.9% for the 65+ age group and 6% to 9% for the 60+ age group during the same period. Kerala reported the highest elderly population at 14.4%.
• The mean age at effective marriage for females has increased from 19.3 years in 1990 to 22.5 years in 2021.

Significance of the Findings

• Population Stabilization: A TFR of 2.0 indicates India is approaching population stabilization, which can ease pressure on natural resources, public services, and the environment.
• Demographic Dividend: A larger working-age population provides an opportunity for increased productivity, and economic growth.
• Improved Maternal health: Fewer childbirths per woman, coupled with delayed age of marriage, lead to reduced maternal mortality, better child care, and healthier families.
• Women Empowerment: Lower fertility rates reflect higher education levels, workforce participation, and greater autonomy among women, leading to better social and economic outcomes.

Negative Impacts of Declining TFR

• Ageing Population: A rise in the elderly population will increase the dependency on the working population, demanding increased focus on pension, healthcare, and social welfare systems.
• Potential for Skewed Sex Ratios: In certain areas, fertility reduction without tackling gender bias can exacerbate sex-selective practices, leading to imbalanced sex ratios.
• Demographic Imbalance: States with vast fertility differences, potentially leading to interstate migration, cultural shifts, and resource strain in low-TFR states.

Concluding Remarks

• The stabilization of India’s Total Fertility Rate reflects a significant demographic shift, signaling that the country is moving closer to achieving replacement-level fertility. However, the associated challenges must not be overlooked.
• A balanced approach that promotes equitable development, strengthens social security, and anticipates future demographic needs is essential to ensure that this transition supports a resilient and prosperous India.

General Studies Paper-2

Context: India’s national security landscape is evolving rapidly, with geopolitical tensions, border conflicts, and emerging cyber threats necessitating a comprehensive security doctrine.

India’s National Security Framework

• National security is often perceived as the exclusive domain of the military and law enforcement agencies, but it encompasses politics, diplomacy, social stability, and economic resilience with military defense, cybersecurity, intelligence coordination, and counterterrorism efforts to ensure a nation’s long-term safety and sovereignty.
• Chanakya’s Mandala Theory famously states that an immediate neighbor is likely to be an adversary.
• However, it emphasized that a kingdom is only as secure as its farthest borders, meaning that strategic diplomacy and internal stability play an essential role in national security.

Key Aspects of India’s National Security

• Military and Border Security: India maintains a strong defense posture along its borders with China and Pakistan, ensuring territorial integrity.
  • Recent operations, including Operation Sindoor, have reinforced India’s counterterrorism and military readiness.
• Cybersecurity and Digital Defense: India is investing in cyber defense infrastructure to counter cyber espionage and digital warfare.
  • The government has launched AI-driven cybersecurity initiatives to protect critical infrastructure and financial systems.
• Intelligence and Counterterrorism: India continues to monitor and neutralize terrorist threats, ensuring national stability.
• India’s diplomatic efforts focus on strengthening global security partnerships.

Key National Security Doctrines Around World

• National Security Strategy (NSS) of United States: It outlines U.S. defense priorities, focusing on deterrence, counterterrorism, and cybersecurity.
  • It emphasizes alliances with NATO, Indo-Pacific security, and technological superiority.
• Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation: Russia’s doctrine highlights nuclear deterrence, hybrid warfare, and regional security.
  • It prioritizes defense against NATO expansion and cyber threats.
• Active Defense Strategy of China: It focuses on territorial integrity, military modernization, and cyber warfare. It integrates economic security with military expansion, particularly in the South China Sea.
  • As Sun Tzu says in ‘The Art of War’, ‘To win 100 victories in 100 battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill’.
  • China has not fought a single war since its conflict with Vietnam in 1979.

Why Does India Need a National Security Doctrine?

• Strategic Clarity and Preparedness: A national security doctrine would provide clear guidelines for responding to external threats, military conflicts, and cyber warfare.
  • It would help align defense policies with India’s economic and diplomatic strategies.
• Deterrence Against Hostile Forces: India’s Nuclear Doctrine, established in 2003, emphasized a credible minimum deterrent.
  • However, border tensions with China and Pakistan highlight the need for a broader security framework beyond nuclear deterrence.
• Strengthening Defense and Intelligence Coordination: A formal doctrine would enhance inter-agency coordination between the armed forces, intelligence agencies, and cybersecurity units.
  • It would streamline decision-making processes during national security crises.

Key Elements of a National Security Doctrine

• Defining India’s Strategic Priorities: Identifying core security challenges and long-term defense objectives.
• Cybersecurity and Technological Warfare: Addressing digital threats, AI-driven warfare, and cyber espionage.
• Border Security and Counterterrorism: Strengthening military readiness and intelligence operations.
• Diplomatic and Economic Security: Integrating foreign policy and trade security measures into defense planning.

Conclusion

• India’s security challenges demand a structured national security doctrine that ensures strategic clarity, deterrence, and inter-agency coordination.
• By framing a comprehensive security policy, India can strengthen its defense posture and safeguard national interests in an increasingly complex global environment.