Only 24% Present-Day Glaciers Will Remain if World Gets Warmer by 2.7°C

General Studies Paper-3

Context: According to a new study published in the journal Science, If the world gets warmer by 2.7°C due to the current trajectory of climate policies, only 24% of the world’s present-day glaciers will remain.

What are glaciers?

• They are essentially large and thick masses of ice that are formed on land due to the accumulation of snow over centuries.
• They hold 70 per cent of the Earth’s freshwater, currently encompassing around 10 percent of the planet’s land area.

Key findings of the study

• Massive Glacier Loss: The study cautioned that even if temperatures stopped rising today, the world’s glaciers would still lose 39% of their mass, compared to 2020 levels, and that would lead to a sea level rise of 113 mm.
• Disproportionate Impact on Some Regions: Glaciers in Scandinavia, the Rockies in Western Canada and the US, and the European Alps are particularly vulnerable.
• A recent glacier collapse in Blatten, Switzerland, which buried parts of a village, highlights this vulnerability.
• High Sensitivity to Incremental Warming: For every 0.1°C increase in global temperature between 1.5°C and 3°C, there is a 2% global glacier loss, with steeper regional impacts.
• Hindu Kush Himalaya Under Threat: The study estimates that only 25% of ice will remain in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region at 2°C warming. This region feeds key river systems– Ganga, Indus and Brahmaputra –vital to South Asia.

Impacts of Glaciers loss

• Water Security in South Asia: Himalayan glaciers serve as perennial sources for India’s major rivers.
  • Their depletion threatens agricultural output, drinking water supplies, and hydroelectric generation, particularly during the dry season.
• Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Risk: The glacier melt contributes to global sea-level rise, endangering coastal populations, particularly in low-lying nations like the Maldives and coastal Indian cities.
• Ecosystem Disruption: Glacial melt impacts mountain biodiversity, alpine ecosystems, and can lead to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
• Socioeconomic Consequences: Loss of water sources may lead to climate-induced migration, conflict over resources, and increased poverty in already vulnerable regions.

Global Initiatives to conserve glaciers

• Paris Agreement 2015, aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels.
• High Mountain Summit (WMO): Recognizes mountains and glaciers as climate sentinels and promotes early warning systems and enhanced data sharing.
• International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI): Established in 2009 as a result of the COP-15, it is a network of senior policy experts and researchers that works with governments and organizations.
  • It creates and implements initiatives designed to preserve the Earth’s cryosphere.
  • National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE) is a government initiative aimed at addressing climate change and its impacts on the Himalayan region.
  • It focuses on developing sustainable strategies, and addressing issues like glacial melt, natural hazards, and biodiversity loss.
• The Arctic Council: It is a forum for Arctic countries to collaborate on environmental protection, sustainable development, and climate change mitigation in the Arctic region.
  • Global Ice Monitoring Initiatives like the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) and the European Space Agency’s CryoSat mission use satellite-based remote sensing to monitor changes in glaciers and ice sheets.

Concluding remarks

• The accelerating loss of glaciers due to rising global temperatures is a stark reminder of the urgent need for coordinated climate action.
• While global initiatives such as the Paris Agreement and IPCC reports provide a strategic framework, their success hinges on timely implementation and increased ambition by all nations.