US-Iran Nuclear Talks

General Studies Paper-2

Context: The United States and Iran have resumed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program following a period of heightened tensions, signalling a potential thaw in diplomatic relations.

Earlier talks

• Iran had previously refused direct talks with the U.S. following the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA).
• Indirect talks were held under Joe Biden but were unsuccessful, and Iran accelerated its nuclear program.

Iran’s Nuclear Programme

• Iran is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) but it ceased cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after the 1979 revolution.
• Allegations have existed about Iran pursuing a secret nuclear weapons program, although Iran claims its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.
• Iran has enriched uranium to varying degrees, including 19.75% in 2010 and 60% recently, moving closer to weapons-grade uranium (90%).

The 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA)

• The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed between Tehran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, and the European Union.
• It aimed to resolve the nuclear crisis by lifting sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran limiting its nuclear activities, including reducing its centrifuges, capping uranium enrichment to 3.67%, and limiting its low-enriched uranium (LEU) stockpile to 300 kg.
• Iran complied with the deal until the U.S. withdrew in 2018 under President Trump and reimposed sanctions.
• In response, Iran accelerated its nuclear program, enriching uranium to 60%, which is a significant step towards weapons-grade uranium.

Potential for a Nuclear Weapon and Related Concerns

• It’s estimated that Iran could develop a deployable nuclear warhead within months, if it chooses to do so, given its current enrichment capabilities.
• The increasing stockpile and reduced breakout time have raised concerns.
• Israel has expressed strong concerns over Iran’s nuclear progress, threatening military action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
• Trump has also suggested military action if diplomatic talks fail, with Israel playing a key role in any military operation.

Latest Developments

• Recently, Iran has faced military, political, and economic pressures, including setbacks in its regional influence and worsening economic conditions.
• Trump offered dialogue, stating that the U.S. couldn’t allow Iran to obtain a nuclear bomb, prompting Iran to engage in diplomacy.
• Iran agreed to negotiate, partially due to its weakened position.

Way Forward

• Revival of JCPOA: Requires mutual trust-building, sanctions relief, and IAEA monitoring.
• Multilateral Guarantees: Broader international consensus is essential to prevent breakout scenarios.
• Regional Dialogue: Middle Eastern security architecture must include nuclear non-proliferation commitments.
• India’s Diplomatic Role: As a responsible regional player, India can advocate for peaceful nuclear energy and non-proliferation.