PM’s visit to Ukraine

General Studies Paper-2

Context: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine on August 23, 2024, was largely seen as a diplomatic balancing act rather than a significant peace effort.

India-Ukraine Relations:

• Diplomatic Relations: India recognized Ukraine as an independent country in December 1991 after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Warm and friendly relations, cooperation in education, legal assistance, and outer space.
• Defence Relations: Ukraine has supplied military technology to India since its independence. India uses Ukraine-made R-27 air-to-air missiles for SU-30MKI fighters. India has started supplying weapons to Ukraine to enhance defence cooperation.
• Trade: India is Ukraine’s largest export destination in the Asia-Pacific region and fifth largest overall. Pharmaceuticals are India’s main export to Ukraine.
• Culture: Over 30 Ukrainian cultural associations promote Indian dance across Ukraine. Approximately 18,000 Indian students, primarily in medical fields, study in Ukraine. Indian professionals work in pharmaceuticals, IT, engineering, and more.
• Agriculture: Pre-war Ukraine was one of the biggest sources of sunflower oil for India.
• Post-war Recovery: Both countries are exploring Indian companies’ involvement in Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery efforts.

India’s Stand on the Ukraine-Russia Conflict:

1. Advocates peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy.
2. Asserted that India is not neutral, choosing the side of peace.
3. Expressed concern without openly condemning Russia.
4. Emphasised the importance of the UN Charter and territorial sovereignty.
5. Highlighted the economic impact of the war on the Global South.
6. Strongly favours a return to dialogue and diplomacy.

Why is India regarded as the best mediator?

1. Neutral player: As India has walked the diplomatic tightrope, it has won credibility on both sides as a mediator between them.
2. Successful diplomatic involvement earlier:
3. Preventing the attack on the nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia in eastern Ukraine.
4. During the Black Sea grain shipment, discussions to intervene with Russia.
5. Leader of Global South: Mexico had suggested that the PM of India, Pope Francis and the UN Secretary-General should mediate the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
6. Good relations with Moscow and the West: India can use this unique leverage to put pressure on Russia to end its war in Ukraine.
7. Geopolitical aspirations: Peace-making might help India gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

Challenges ahead for India to be a mediator:

1. Understanding the dynamics: Between Russia and Ukraine, Russia and the European players, Ukraine and European partners and move ahead accordingly.
2. Experience: India has effectively negotiated in bilateral and multilateral formats, but negotiating in a crisis is a different question.
3. Risk-taking ability: While India has shown risk-taking abilities in its immediate region (surgical strikes in Pakistan), entering a geopolitical crisis of this size is different.
4. Credibility: The West sees India as closer to Russia, as India keeps buying Russian oil at discounted prices despite the West’s criticism.
5. Cannot afford a slide in relations with Russia:
6. Both India and Russia have strategic ties in nuclear, space, defence, energy, and connectivity – sectors.
7. Russia does not transfer to any other country the military technologies shared with India.
8. Also, India cannot afford a closer strategic relationship between Russia and China.

Conclusion:

The Russia-Ukraine crisis has entered a new phase, in which Indian diplomacy could aid in a range of realistic ways to address the stated challenges.