Indian Agriculture to 2047 Report

General Studies Paper-3

Context: According to an analysis by ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR-NIAP), India’s aggregate food demand is projected to exceed twice the current demand by 2047.

Major Findings

• Increase in Population: By the 100th year of its independence in 2047, India aims to attain the status of a developed nation.
• By this time, of the projected 1.6 billion population, approximately half may reside in urban areas.
• Increase in Demand: By 2047, India’s demand for nutrient-rich foods, including horticultural and animal products, is expected to increase three to four times.
• Land Shrinking: Agricultural land needed to meet this increased food demand is expected to shrink to 176 million hectares (mha) from the current 180 mha.
• The cropping intensity is likely to increase to 170% from the current 156%.
• Structural Changes in Agriculture: By 2047, Agriculture’s contribution to the national income may decrease to 8% from the current 18%.
• The average landholding size is expected to decrease significantly to 0.6 hectares from approximately one hectare now.
• Farmers would increasingly diversify their production portfolios towards less land-intensive activities such as animal husbandry and fisheries.
• Projections indicate an increase in the contribution of livestock to the gross value of agricultural output to 39% from the current 31%, and of fisheries to 10% from 7%.
• Impact of climate change on agriculture: Over the past five decades, extreme climate events such as droughts, heat waves, and floods have reduced India’s agricultural productivity growth by approximately 25%.
• India’ water use efficiency is also low at 35-40%, which is roughly one-third to one-half of the efficiency levels observed in China, Brazil, and the United States.
• Agriculture is a major consumer of water (83 per cent), and by 2047, its demand will be approximately 18 per cent higher than its current use.

Policy Recommendations

• Efficient Management of Water Resources: Rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge are essential for sustainable water resource management.
• Water use efficiency currently stands at 35–40%; a 10% improvement could irrigate an additional 14 million hectares.
• Power Sector Reforms: Phasing out universal electricity subsidies and targeting only needy farmers can help curb the overuse of electricity and groundwater.
• Fertilizer Sector Reforms: Current subsidy system favors nitrogenous fertilizers, disrupting NPK balance.
• Linking subsidies to Soil Health Cards can optimize fertilizer use and restore soil health.
• Emerging tech like nano-fertilizers and drone-based precision fertilization can enhance efficiency and reduce environmental harm.
• Climate Change Mitigation: Single risk mitigation strategies are inadequate; integrated climate-smart practices are more effective (resilient varieties, efficient irrigation, etc.).
• Digital tools (remote sensing, drones) can improve risk assessment and enable region-specific insurance.
• Investment in Agricultural R&D: India spends only 0.43% of AgGDP on R&D (vs. global average of 0.93%); private sector share is low (7%).
• Need sustained public investment and private/philanthropic partnerships.
• Crop Planning and Diversification: Must align cropping with resource endowments and climate, but profitability is key for farmer adoption.
• High-value crops (fruits, vegetables) require strong market infrastructure, cold storage, and financial support.
• De-stress Agriculture Employment: Agriculture faces excessive labor pressure due to slow rural industrialization.
• Promote agri-startups and MSMEs to create jobs and add value to farm produce.
• Strengthening Market Infrastructure & Value Chains: Market infrastructure has not matched growing commercialization in agriculture.
• Strengthen FPOs, cooperatives, and contract farming to improve market access and reduce risks.

Conclusion

• The challenges facing the agri-food system are multifaceted and interconnected, and their management requires a comprehensive approach encompassing technological and institutional innovations, investments in infrastructure, and reforms in incentive structures.