General Studies Paper-3
Context: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has released the ‘Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029)’.
Key Temperature Projections:
- 2024: The year 2024 was not only the hottest year on record but also the first year to breach 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline.
- 2025–2029: There is a 70% chance that the average global temperature for the 2025-2029 period will exceed pre industrial levels by more than 1.5°C.
- 80% chance of at least one of the next 5 years surpassing 2024 temperature.
- 86% chance that at least one year will cross the 1.5°C threshold.
- global temperature predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than avg. for 1850-1900.
- Predicted precipitation patterns for May-Sep 2025-2029 to be wetter than average.
- 1% chance of at least one year exceeding 2°C of warming in the next five years .
Regional Climate Outlook
- South Asia: Expected to continue with wetter-than-usual years (except 2023), and this trend is expected to continue between 2025 and 2029, although some seasons might still be dry.
- Arctic: Projected warming of ~2.4°C over winters—3.5x faster than global average over the next five winters (November to March).
- Sea ice is likely to shrink even more between 2025 and 2029 in parts of the Arctic like the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
- Regional anomalies (2025–2029):
- Wetter: Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, Northern Siberia.
- Drier: Amazon region.
- India: India received above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season in four of the past five years.
IMD predicts above-normal monsoon rainfall in 2025.