June 25, 2025

General Studies Paper-3

Context: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has released the ‘Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029)’.

Key Temperature Projections:

  • 2024: The year 2024 was not only the hottest year on record but also the first year to breach 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline.
  • 2025–2029: There is a 70% chance that the average global temperature for the 2025-2029 period will exceed pre industrial levels by more than 1.5°C.
    • 80% chance of at least one of the next 5 years surpassing 2024 temperature.
    • 86% chance that at least one year will cross the 1.5°C threshold.
    • global temperature predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than avg. for 1850-1900.
    • Predicted precipitation patterns for May-Sep 2025-2029 to be wetter than average.
    • 1% chance of at least one year exceeding 2°C of warming in the next five years .

Regional Climate Outlook

  • South Asia: Expected to continue with wetter-than-usual years (except 2023), and this trend is expected to continue between 2025 and 2029, although some seasons might still be dry.
    • Arctic: Projected warming of ~2.4°C over winters—3.5x faster than global average over the next five winters (November to March).
    • Sea ice is likely to shrink even more between 2025 and 2029 in parts of the Arctic like the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
  • Regional anomalies (2025–2029):
    • Wetter: Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, Northern Siberia.
    • Drier: Amazon region.
  • India: India received above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season in four of the past five years.

IMD predicts above-normal monsoon rainfall in 2025.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

© 2025 Civilstap Himachal Design & Development