Gaza Peace Plan and its Implications for India

General Studies Paper-2

Context

• Recently, US President Donald Trump unveiled a 20-point peace proposal, dubbed as ‘Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict’ aimed at ending the protracted war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

Core Elements of the Gaza Peace Plan Announced By Trump

• Hamas Disarmament and Amnesty: The Plan demands disarmament and surrender of Hamas and relinquish control of Gaza.
  • Members pledging peaceful coexistence will be granted amnesty, while those wishing to leave Gaza will receive safe passage to countries such as Jordan, Egypt, Qatar, or Iran.
• International Stabilization Force (ISF): A temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF), supported by the US, Arab partners, Jordan, and Egypt, will replace Israeli troops in Gaza.
  • The ISF aims to secure borders, prevent arms smuggling, and train vetted Palestinian police. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will gradually withdraw, maintaining only a ‘security perimeter presence’ until full stability is ensured.
• Transitional Governance: Governance of Gaza will shift to a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, supervised by an international ‘Board of Peace’ led by Trump itself.
  • Humanitarian Relief and Reconstruction: The plan allows unrestricted humanitarian aid, focusing on infrastructure rehabilitation, hospitals, food supply chains, and road clearance.
  • Aid will be delivered via the UN and Red Crescent without interference.
• Hostage-Prisoner Exchange: All hostages must be returned within 72 hours of Israel’s acceptance.
  • In exchange, Israel will release 250 life-term prisoners and 1,700 Gazans detained post-October 7, including all women and children.
  • Remains of hostages will be exchanged at a ratio of 1 Israeli to 15 Palestinians.
• Regional and International Guarantees: Eight countries — Qatar, Jordan, UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt — have welcomed the plan.
  • China and Russia expressed support.
  • Guarantees will be provided to ensure Gaza remains free from future militant threats.

Challenges to Implementing Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan

• Hamas’s Reluctance to Disarm and Cede Power: Hamas’s deep-rooted presence, ideological stance and role in armed resistance in the region are seen as the most formidable hurdle.
• Regional Opposition to Forced Resettlement: Trump’s suggestion that Palestinians could be relocated outside Gaza was swiftly rejected by key regional players like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.
  • These nations emphasized the right of Palestinians to remain in Gaza, opposing any form of displacement.
• Security and Sovereignty Concerns: The proposed plan for International Stabilization Force (ISF) until Gaza is deemed safe could be interpreted as a de facto Israeli occupation, undermining Palestinian sovereignty and fueling distrust.
• Clarity and Operational Details: The plan lacks timelines, maps, and enforcement mechanisms, raising doubts about its feasibility.
  • Trump did not take questions during the announcement, leaving many aspects of the plan ambiguous.

Political Implications of Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan

• Israel’s Political Calculus: The plan demands Hamas’s complete disarmament and exclusion from Gaza’s future governance, a stance that could deepen internal Israeli debates over long-term strategy.
• Palestinian Governance Shift: Gaza would be governed by an apolitical Palestinian committee under international oversight, sidelining both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority until reforms are complete.
  • The plan hints at a ‘credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination’, a politically sensitive proposition that could reignite debates over a two-state solution.
• Regional Diplomacy and Realignment: Egypt, Jordan, and Qatar are expected to facilitate Hamas’s safe exit and support reconstruction, signaling a shift toward more active Arab mediation.
  • The plan implicitly sidelines Iran, which backs Hamas, potentially altering the balance of influence in West Asia.
• For Trump: The plan could boost Trump’s legacy and ambitions for a Nobel Peace Prize, reminiscent of the Oslo Accords, if successful.
  • However, it carries a business dimension, with opportunities for large-scale reconstruction projects in Gaza.

Implications on India

• Diplomatic Alignment and Global Standing: India welcomed the plan, calling it a ‘viable pathway to long-term and sustainable peace’ in West Asia.
  • India’s endorsement reflects its balanced diplomacy—maintaining ties with both Israel and Arab nations like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
• Strategic and Security Interests: The plan’s emphasis on counterterrorism and deradicalization aligns with India’s own security concerns, especially regarding cross-border extremism.
  • Israel noted that the plan reflects shared values between India and Israel, including the fight against terrorism.
• Economic and Infrastructure Opportunities: India’s expertise in infrastructure development could play a key role in Gaza’s reconstruction.
  • Peace in West Asia would boost India’s ambitions for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, facilitating trade and connectivity.
• Regional Stability and Diaspora Welfare: West Asia hosts over 9 million Indians, making regional stability crucial for their safety and economic well-being.
  • The region supplies about 80% of India’s oil, so peace could stabilize energy prices and ensure uninterrupted supply chains.

However, Pakistan’s prominent role in the Gaza plan raises concerns for India.