China – Russia relations and its implications on India

General Studies Paper 2

Context: The Chinese President’s recent state visit to Russia highlights the growing strategic partnership between China and Russia, which has significant implications for India. Despite the Ukraine crisis, China remains committed to enhancing its partnership with Russia, as it sees the United States and its allies as determined to contain China. This growing China-Russia relations could have security, economic, and geopolitical implications for India.

Recent developments in China – Russia relations:

• China-Russia relations have been evolving rapidly in recent years, with both countries seeking to deepen their strategic partnership. Here are some recent developments:
• Economic Ties: China and Russia have been increasing their economic cooperation, particularly in the areas of energy and technology. For example, in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion, Russia’s trade with China in the Chinese yuan multiplied by an extraordinary 80 times.
• Military Ties: The two countries have also been increasing their military cooperation, with joint military exercises becoming more frequent. In November 2021, the two sides signed a Road Map for Military cooperation for 2021-2025 to guide collaboration in this sphere.
• Political Ties:China and Russia have been aligning themselves more closely on the international stage, particularly in their opposition to the United States. For example, in 2021, China and Russia issued a joint statement condemning the United States for its interference in other countries internal affairs.
• De- Dollarization Efforts: Russia and China have a strong economic relationship and both countries are working together to reduce the global reliance on the US dollar. They believe that the current global economic system is too dependent on the US and seek to change this. Additionally, they are against the use of unilateral sanctions as a means of enforcing foreign policy.
• COVID-19 Vaccine Cooperation: China and Russia have also been cooperating in the development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. In 2020, Russia approved a Chinese COVID-19 vaccine for use within its borders, and in 2021, China approved the Russian Sputnik V vaccine for emergency use.

Implications of recent China – Russia relations on the US and its allies:

• Strategic Competition: The growing alignment between China and Russia poses a strategic challenge to the United States and its allies. The two countries’ combined economic and military power could undermine U.S. influence in key regions, such as the Asia-Pacific and Europe.
• For example, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced they would re-establish full diplomatic ties and reopen their embassies in each other’s countires after talks mediated in China. It indicates the decline of the USA’s influence and boosts to Chinese influence.
• Economic Competition:The deepening economic ties between China and Russia could also create economic competition for the United States and its allies. For example, both sides committed to enhancing trade relationships, especially energy partnership and full completion of the 30-year, $300 billion gas pipeline called Power of Siberia, that was signed in 2014. It could threaten the United States’ energy security.
• Military Threat:The growing military cooperation between China and Russia could also pose a military threat to the United States and its allies. If China and Russia continue to conduct joint military exercises and develop advanced military technology together, it could make it more difficult for the United States to defend its interests in key regions such as the Asia-Pacific.
• Diplomatic Isolation:The closer alignment between China and Russia could also isolate the United States diplomatically, making it more difficult for the United States to rally support from its traditional allies in the face of challenges posed by China and Russia.
• For example, Iran, Russia and China held naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman, along with a few other countries. It is opposite’s to the United States’ efforts to impose sanctions on Iran and North Korea could undermine the United States’ diplomatic efforts to contain these countries.
• Cybersecurity Threats:The increased alignment between China and Russia also raises concerns about cybersecurity threats to the United States and its allies.
• For example, China and Russia could coordinate their efforts to launch cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure and institutions. As China and Russia stand behind their No-limits partnership, announced last year and have embarked on a “New Era” of ties that will be a “model for major power relations.

Implications of recent China – Russia relations on India:

• The relationship between China and Russia has been growing stronger in recent years, with both countries seeking to increase their influence on the global stage. However, this alliance has significant implications for India.
• Strategic implications: The strategic implication is particularly in the areas of defense and security. India has been trying to counter China’s growing military presence in the region, and a closer alliance between China and Russia could make this more difficult.
• Geopolitical implications:The closer alignment between China and Russia could also have geopolitical implications for India, particularly in terms of its relations with other countries in the region. India has been trying to strengthen its ties with countries such as Japan and Australia to counter China’s influence, but a stronger China-Russia alliance could make this more difficult.
• Military cooperation:One of the main implications of the growing relationship between China and Russia for India is the potential for increased military cooperation between the two countries. This could lead to a greater military threat to India, particularly given the ongoing tensions between India and China over their border disputes.
• For example, the recent military exercises conducted by China and Russia in the Arctic region have raised concerns in India about the possibility of increased military cooperation between the two countries.
• Regional politics:China – Russia might work together on regional political issues, such as the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan. This could marginalize India’s influence in the region and make it more difficult for India to pursue its foreign policy goals and undermine India’s strategic interests in the region.
• Economic competition:The growing economic ties between China and Russia could also have implications for India. If China and Russia deepen their economic partnership, it could create a more formidable economic competitor for India in the global market.
• For example, both are in favour of using the Chinese yuan for settlements between Russia and the countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This economic pact has raised concerns in India about the potential impact on its own economic growth and competitiveness.

Way forward by India:

• Diplomatic Measures:India should engage in active diplomacy with both China and Russia to strengthen its ties with these countries. This could involve high-level visits, cultural exchanges, and people-to-people contacts. For example, India could invite Chinese and Russian delegations to visit India and engage in constructive dialogue to deepen mutual understanding and cooperation.
• Economic Measures:India should also focus on enhancing its economic ties with China and Russia. This could involve exploring new trade and investment opportunities, as well as working on joint economic initiatives.
• For example, India, China, and Russia’s recent initiative to create a common digital currency could be beneficial in strengthening their economic cooperation. This digital currency would facilitate easier transactions between the three countries. It could also promote trade and investment among the three nations and contribute to the development of a multipolar world order.
• Regional Measures:India should also focus on strengthening its position in the region by collaborating with other countries in the neighborhood. This could involve working on regional initiatives to promote peace, stability, and economic development.
• For example, India could work with other countries in the region, such as Japan and South Korea, to establish a regional security framework that would counterbalance the growing influence of China and Russia.
• Strategic Engagement:India needs to engage in strategic cooperation with both China and Russia to ensure regional stability and security. This could involve collaboration on issues such as counter-terrorism, maritime security, and climate change.
• Multilateral Engagement:India should engage more actively in multilateral forums such as the United Nations, G20, and SCO to project its voice and influence in the international community. India should also explore the possibility of leading initiatives in these forums that are aimed at promoting peace, stability, and development in the region.
• For example, India could work with China and Russia to promote regional stability and connectivity through the SCO framework.
• India can take several steps to address the challenges posed by the growing China  -Russia relationship. These steps include strengthening ties with other like-minded countries, building regional partnerships, promoting economic integration, investing in military capabilities, and engaging in diplomatic dialogue. By pursuing these measures, India can enhance its own strategic partnerships and ensure peace and stability in the region.

Overall, India should adopt a proactive and strategic approach to develop its relations with China and Russia. By doing so, India can position itself as a key player in the region and mitigate the potential negative implications of the evolving dynamics between China and Russia.