Saudi Arabia–Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement and its Geopolitical Implications

General Studies Paper-2

Context

• The recent Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan marks a seismic shift in South Asian geopolitics, including India that challenges long-held assumptions about its regional security architecture and its diplomatic outreach to the Gulf.

About the SDMA Between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan

• It builds on nearly eight decades of cooperation rooted in Islamic solidarity and shared strategic interests, elevating their relationship into a formal treaty framework.
• It states that ‘any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both’, effectively committing each side to respond to threats to the other.
• It includes provisions for:
  • Permanent coordination mechanisms;
  • Joint military committees;
  • Intelligence-sharing arrangements;
  • Expanded training programs;

Strategic Importance for Saudi Arabia

• Security Assurance Beyond US Reliance: Pakistan provides a tested partner with nuclear capabilities, amid concerns over waning US commitment as the Gulf’s security guarantor.
  • It is a hedge against growing uncertainty in West Asia, especially after Israel’s attack on Qatar, which hosts the Al-Udeid airbase—the largest US military base in the region.
• Counterbalance to Iran and Israel: Saudi Arabia faces threats from Iran-backed proxies like the Houthis and increasing Israeli assertiveness across the region.
  • SMDA strengthens Saudi deterrence posture by aligning with Pakistan’s military capabilities, including its nuclear potential—though not explicitly stated, the symbolism is potent.
• Expanding Strategic Depth: The pact includes joint military committees, intelligence-sharing, and expanded training programs.
  • It formalizes decades of informal cooperation, including Pakistan’s long-standing troop deployments in the Saudi Kingdom.
• Military Expertise: Pakistan’s army has historically trained Saudi forces and guarded holy sites.
• Economic and Energy Corridors: Partnership secures routes for Vision 2030 investments, especially via CPEC and Gwadar.
  • Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are part of China’s strategic orbit through CPEC and Belt & Road Initiative.

Strategic Importance for Pakistan

• Economic and Military Leverage: The agreement allows Pakistan to convert economic dependency into strategic influence.
  • It positions Pakistan as a regional security provider, enhancing its global relevance amid domestic challenges.
  • Saudi Arabia remains Pakistan’s largest source of concessional loans, remittances, and oil subsidies.
• Nuclear Diplomacy: Pakistan hinted that Saudi Arabia could access Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities if needed.
  • It elevates Pakistan’s status as a potential nuclear umbrella for the Gulf, a role with significant geopolitical weight.
• Military Prestige and Influence: The presence of Pakistan’s Army Chief at the signing ceremony signals Pakistan’s military establishment’s central role in shaping foreign policy.
  • It is leveraging this pact to bolster its domestic standing and international clout.
• Strategic Depth Against India: An agreement enhances Pakistan’s bargaining power with India, indirectly strengthening its deterrence.
• Military Technology & Training: Access to advanced Saudi-funded military equipment, joint exercises, and strategic partnerships.

Associated Global Uncertainty & Risks

• Regional Security Order: The US agenda of expanding the Abraham Accords has been derailed by Israel’s war in Gaza.
  • Saudi Arabia made it clear it will normalise relations with Israel only if there is a commitment to a Palestinian state — a demand Israel rejects.
• Regional Rivalries: Pakistan could be pulled into Saudi Arabia’s rivalries with Iran or into Yemen’s protracted conflict.
  • Saudi Arabia may find itself entangled in South Asian instability, particularly over India–Pakistan tensions.
  • It could deepen divides with Iran and Qatar, challenging OIC unity.

India’s Strategic Concerns

• India has deepened relations with Saudi Arabia through energy, trade, and diaspora ties, while maintaining a pro-Israel tilt in West Asia policy. The defence pact complicates this balance.
• Saudi Arabia signals that it will prioritise its own security interests, by choosing Pakistan as a formal defence partner, even if this unsettles India.
• For India, the challenge is twofold:
• Preventing erosion of its influence in the Gulf if Pakistan positions itself as a credible security provider.
• Adapting to a post-US-dominant order, where alliances are more fluid and transactional.

Reconsidering Strategic Assumptions By India

• Gulf Neutrality: India had long viewed Gulf nations, especially Saudi Arabia, as neutral actors in South Asian disputes.
• Regional Deterrence: The pact enhances Pakistan’s deterrence posture, potentially emboldening its stance in future conflicts.
• Diplomatic Balancing: India needs to navigate a more polarized regional landscape, balancing its ties with Saudi Arabia while countering the implications of the Saudi-Pakistan axis.

Conclusion

• The Pakistan–Saudi pact is less about ironclad defence and more about perception, prestige, and deterrence through uncertainty. It elevates Pakistan’s global profile, provides Saudi Arabia a measure of insurance, unsettles India, and forces global powers to recalibrate.
• Above all, it signals that regional boundaries are dissolving, giving way to a new era of interlinked security architectures.