- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has released its annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament and international security of 2023.
FINDINGS OF THE REPORT
NUCLEAR ARSENALS
- The nine nuclear-armed states, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and Israel continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals. Russia and the USA together possess almost 90 percent of all nuclear weapons.
- China: China’s nuclear arsenal increased from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023, and it is expected to keep growing. China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the USA or Russia by the turn of the decade.
- India and Pakistan: India and Pakistan appear to be expanding their nuclear arsenals, and both countries introduced and continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery system in 2022. While Pakistan remains the main focus of India’s nuclear deterrent, India appears to be placing growing emphasis on longer-range weapons, including those capable of reaching targets across China.
- North Korea: North Korea conducted no nuclear test explosions in 2022, it conducted more than 90 tests of missiles. Some of these missiles, which include new ICBMs, may be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
- Impact of Russia- Ukraine war on Nuclear diplomacy
- In the wake of the invasion, the USA suspended its bilateral strategic stability dialogue with Russia. In February 2023 Russia suspended its participation in the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START)—the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty limiting Russian and US strategic nuclear forces. Talks about a follow-on treaty to New START, which expires in 2026, were also suspended.
- Iran’s military support to Russian forces in Ukraine and the political situation in Iran also overshadowed talks on reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 agreement meant to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The JCPOA’s revival now seems increasingly unlikely.
Peace agreements
- Opportunities for peace-making were limited in 2022. The UN succeeded in arranging a truce in Yemen that lasted from April until October—apparently leading to a decline in fatality rates and improved access to aid, despite ongoing violence—while a combination of mediators from African states, Saudi Arabia, the UN and the United States fitfully nudged the military authorities in Sudan to agree a new framework for civilian government following military– civilian turmoil throughout 2021.
- A successful military drive by the Ethiopian military and its allies forced the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front to sue for a truce in November 2022, which was hurriedly worked out in Pretoria, South Africa, and held reasonably well into 2023.
- In Colombia, a new left-wing government worked on a peace initiative with a number of armed groups in late 2022, which had made uncertain progress by December.
PRIVATE MILITARY AND SECURITY COMPANIES (PMSCS)
- The past 20 years have witnessed the rapid growth of There is no universally accepted, legally binding, standard definition of a PMSC and the sector often operates in a legal lacuna: the employees of PMSCs are not soldiers or civilians, nor can they usually be defined as mercenaries.
- The wars in Iraq (2003–11) and Afghanistan (2001–21) reshaped perceptions of the private military and security industry, with the massive deployment of contractors by the United States leading to new market opportunities across the globe.
- Factors contributing to the growth of PMSCs vary by region and state, but they mostly fit with cost-efficiency calculations, where the sector provides skills and services that states do not possess or that would be too costly for states to develop or perform themselves.
- The USA, the United Kingdom, China and South Africa together are estimated to host about 70 percent of the entire sector.
MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND ARMS PRODUCTION
- Global military expenditure rose for the eighth consecutive year in 2022 to reach an estimated $2240 billion, the highest level ever recorded by SIPRI.
- Despite the 7 per cent year-on-year increase in spending, world military expenditure as a share of world gross domestic product (GDP)—the military burden—remained at 2.2 percent because the global economy also grew in 2022.
- Governments around the world spent an average of 2 percent of their budgets on the military, or $282 per person.
INTERNATIONAL TRANSFERS OF MAJOR ARMS
- The volume of international transfers of major arms in the five-year period 2018–22 was 5.1 percent lower than in 2013–17 and 3.9 percent higher than in 2008–12.
- The volume of transfers in 2018–22 was among the highest since the end of the cold war, but was still around 35 percent lower than the totals for 1978–82 and 1983–87, when arms transfers peaked.
- The 25 largest suppliers accounted for 98 percent of the total volume of exports, and the 5 largest suppliers in the period—the United States, Russia, France, China and Germany— accounted for 76 percent of the total volume of exports.
IMPORTERS OF MAJOR ARMS
- The five largest arms importers were India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Australia and China, which together accounted for 36 percent of total arms imports.
- The region that received the largest volume of imports of major arms in 2018–22 was Asia and Oceania, accounting for 41 percent of the global total, followed by the Middle East (31 percent), Europe (16 percent), the Americas (5.8 percent) and Africa (5.0 percent).
ABOUT SIPRI
- SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. It is based in
- It was established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.
- Funding: It was established on the basis of a decision by the Swedish Parliament and receives a substantial part of its funding in the form of an annual grant from the Swedish Government. The Institute also seeks financial support from other organizations in order to carry out its research.
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