The outlook for 2024, for the world and India.

General Studies Paper – 2

Context:

• Global risks rise in 2024, challenging the existing order. Geostrategic tensions, Ukraine conflict impact on U.S. elections, and Middle East turmoil pose threats.
• India faces uncertainties in Sino-Indian relations, neighbourhood dynamics, and internal political challenges. Improved central-state relations crucial for stability.

Global Risks and Uncertainties in 2024

• Increasing Global Risks:The new year brings heightened global risks and uncertainties, indicating a time of great peril.
• Challenges to the International Order:The existing international order faces challenges from both advocates and critics, creating further instability.
• Geostrategic Contradictions:Ongoing conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, may escalate, posing threats to global stability.
• Impact of Ukraine Conflict on U.S. Election:The outcome of the war in Ukraine could influence the U.S. presidential election, with a potential impact on Biden’s chances.
• Middle East Tensions:Recent events, like Hamas’s assault on Israel, have the potential to escalate tensions in the Middle East, reshaping geopolitics in the region.
• Shifts in West Asia Alliances:The West’s hypocrisy and changing alliances in West Asia may challenge U.S. leadership, affecting the strategic balance.
• Caution for the West in Other Regions:Given the evolving geopolitics, the West, especially in the Indo-Pacific, should act cautiously to maintain the existing strategic balance.

India’s Outlook in 2024

• General Election in Mid-2024:India faces a pivotal year with a general election scheduled, where the ruling party expresses confidence despite potential challenges.
• Sino-Indian Relations:Stalemate persists, with China perceiving India as part of an anti-China alliance, raising concerns about possible adventurist actions.
• Russia-China Axis Impact:Strengthening Russia-China ties could impact India’s relations with Central Asia, requiring careful navigation.
• Neighborhood Dynamics:India faces uncertainties in its immediate neighborhood, with pressure from China affecting ties with Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and the Maldives.
• Diminishing Influence in West Asia:India’s influence in West Asia may be diminishing as countries in the region align more with China and Russia.

Internal Dynamics in India

• Election Preparations:Internal political dynamics indicate a charged atmosphere as ruling and opposition forces gear up for a competitive electoral battle.
• Social Fragmentation:Factors like caste loyalties, social engineering, and fragmentation are influencing the political landscape.
• Unitary vs. Federal Aspects:There’s a growing bias towards unitary aspects of India’s Constitution, with a trend towards increased centralization of authority.
• Parliamentary Disarray:Parliament is expected to continue in disarray throughout 2024, with limited room for improvement.
• Centre-State Relations:The relationship between the central and state governments needs careful consideration, as the recent Supreme Court judgment on Article 370 may fuel conflicts.
• Need for Political Rethink:Incumbent political parties need to reconsider their approaches, recognizing the importance of improved Central-State relations for a stronger and more cohesive nation.