General Studies Paper 1
- Context: Population growth is a function of fertility and life expectancy. India had about 1.38 billion (138 crore) people in 2020. Two recent studies estimate the country’s population to peak at 1. 5-1. 6 billion somewhere between 2040 and 2048.
- India’s population has been on a decline,and several figures point in this direction.
- Every year since 2003 the number of live births has been falling consistently.
- Fertility rate(average number of children born to a woman) came down to 2 – well below the world average in 2019.
- It took only 14 years for the fertility rate to fall by 50% (from 3 to 2) in India, whereas in Bangladesh – globally acclaimed for birth control – a similar fall took 17 years.
Reasons:
- Percentage of women marrying before the age of 18 has fallen by half in the past 15 years.
- Women participation in key family decisions have shot up from 37% to 89% in the past decade and a half.
- Urbanisation is another family size suppressor. In rural areas a child is a resource, a free labour to work on farms and tend to livestock. But in a city a child is a liability till adulthood.
- The higher cost of raising children also prevents middle and upper middle classes from having a big family.
What can be the new set of challenges that can emerge due to this declining population trend?
- Compared to other countries with the same fertility rate, India’s infant mortality rate is higher and life expectancy is lower. That means the coming fall in population could turn into a collapse.
- India is also home to the highest number of underweight and stunted children.
- The peak of India’s demographic dividend is already behind The prospect of India ageing before prospering to the levels of Western countries is real.
- It’s this fear that has caused China to abandon its draconian single child policy and encourage its youth to have more kids. India could be in a much worse situation than China as the productivity level in China are much higher than India.
Can this trend be reversed?
- Policy persuasion does not help in convincing people to go for smaller or no families.
- The immediate task for India is to save more children at birth and ensure that they grow into healthy and educated adults.