Pandemic-linked Learning Losses for Students: ADB Study

Syllabus: General Studies Paper 3

India’s GDP to take a big hit due to pandemic-linked learning losses for students: ADB study. A new working paper titled ‘Potential Economic Impact of COVID-19 related School Closures’ was published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Findings

• The GDP of India, which is among the countries with the longest school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic, would see the highest decline in South Asia due to learning losses for the young
• Starting with a $10.5 billion dent in 2023, the country’s economy could take a nearly $99 billion hit by 2030, translating into a 3.19% reduction in GDP from the baseline growth trends
• India may thus account for over 10% of the global GDP decline of $943 billion estimated by the ADB on account of earning losses in 2030, with jobs for skilled labour expected to decline by 1%, and unskilled labour by 2% that year.
• Economies with a significant population of schoolchildren and college-going youth in rural areas and in the poorest and second wealth quintile — have been worst-hit as they lack access to stable Internet connection needed to study online
• Learning and earning losses are significant because a notable portion of the impacted population will migrate to the unskilled labour force
• A large part of India’s work force is constituted by unskilled labour — 4 million as per the ADB paper’s estimates, compared to 72.65 million skilled workers.
• In terms of absolute change, India experiences the highest GDP decline in South Asia, at about $98.84 billion in 2030.
• School closures lead to declines in global GDP and employment. Moreover, the losses in global GDP and employment increase over time. Declines in global GDP amount to 0.19% in 2024, 0.64% in 2028, and 1.11% in 2030.

Recommendations

• India has the highest number of children enrolled in primary and secondary education among the Asian economies covered in the paper, at 255.74 million.
• The number of students in tertiary education were second only to China at 36.39 million
• While mooting greater investments in education and skills with a focus on narrowing the digital divide, the study has suggested the most immediate challenge for governments is to help students recover “lost opportunities” by conducting assessments among impacted children.
• Governments need to direct adequate funding and resources to young populations most affected by closures, such as those from the poor, rural and socially disadvantaged groups.
• It is important to keep school-age children in education as much as possible by providing financial support and incentives, while giving additional support for skills training to youth already out of school

Asian Development Bank

• ADB is a regional development bank established on 19th December 1966.
• ADB now has 68 members, 49 from within Asia.
• ADB is headquartered in Manila, Philippines.
• ADB’s five largest shareholders are Japan and the United States (each with 15.6% of total shares), the People’s Republic of China (6.4%), India (6.3%), and Australia (5.8%).
• It aims to promote social and economic development in Asia.
• ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty.