India’s defence budgeting and the point of deterrence.

General Studies Paper – 3

Context:

The Indian defense landscape faces challenges with depleting squadron strength, budget constraints, and the need for modernization.

The debate between ‘affordable defense’ and ‘affordable effectiveness’ is crucial. With a live threat on northern borders, India must balance indigenous efforts, research, and defense budgeting to ensure a robust deterrence posture.

Overview of MMRCA Program:

• Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program dubbed the ‘mother of all procurements’ for Indian Air Force (IAF).
• Original cost estimated at $10 billion in 2007, later reduced to the purchase of 36 Rafale jets.

Squadron Strength Concerns:

• IAF faces squadron strength depletion, currently at 32, with a target of reaching 35 squadrons in 10 years.
• Concerns raised by various IAF chiefs about the limited value of the Rafale purchase.

Concerns Across Forces:

• Indian Army and Indian Navy also reported to have deficiencies.
• Budget constraints and electoral sops may impact defense allocations in Budget 2024-25.

Affordable Defense vs. Affordable Effectiveness:

• Debates whether ‘affordable defense’ or ‘affordable effectiveness’ should drive defense Budget allocation.
• Example of IAF opting for 97 more Tejas Mk1A fighters despite the initial plan for 114 multi-role fighter aircraft.

Northern Border Threat and Election Mode:

• Live threat on northern borders necessitates preparedness.
• Concerns that defense allocation may be influenced by electoral considerations.

Assessment of War Preparedness:

• Urgent need for a judicious assessment of India’s approach to the next war.
• Importance of evaluating defense potency versus budget constraints.

Sea Power and Modernization Needs:

• Call for accretion in sea power to deter China.
• Need for modernization in the Army, considering its size and associated budget requirements.

Extended War Scenario and Industrial Base:

• Leadership visualizing an extended war scenario, as seen in Ukraine.
• Importance of considering the industrial base available for war scenarios.

Indigenous Drive and R&D:

• Emphasis on technological modernization.
• Realities of the armament supply chain and balance between imports and indigenous accretions.

Budgetary Constraints and Research & Development:

• Stagnant defense budget in real terms.
• Decline in defense expenditure as a percentage of central government expenditure.
• Global Innovation Index 2022 highlights India’s low research and development expenditure (0.7% of GDP).

Indigenization Efforts and Challenges:

• Government’s emphasis on indigenization through iDEX scheme and service-specific projects.
• Restructuring of Ordnance Factory Board and promulgation of negative lists for imports.
• Acknowledgment of the long gestation period for indigenization efforts.

Importance of Bipartisan Statesmanship:

• Need for sustained momentum in policy-making and defense budgeting.
• Emphasis on making defense budgets election-proof in a democratic setup.

National Security Imperatives vs. Electoral Imperatives:

• Caution against prioritizing electoral imperatives over national security imperatives.
• Instances of other countries responding to China’s belligerence with increased defense budgets.

 Conclusion:

• The necessity of giving due consideration to the defense budget and not compromising national security for electoral considerations.