In Saudi-Iranian normalization, new challenges emerge in west Asia

General Studies Paper 2

Context: Saudi Arabia and Iran, signed an agreement in Beijing, China, to re-establish diplomatic ties, respect each other’s sovereignty and maintain non-interference in the other’s domestic affairs.    

What is the Conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia?

• Religious Factor:
  • Saudi Arabia broke off ties with Iran in 2016after protesters invaded Saudi diplomatic posts after Saudi Arabia had executed a prominent Shiite cleric days earlier.
• Saudi Arabia has long portrayed itself as the world’s leading Sunni nation while Iran views itself as the protector of the Islam’s Shiite minority.
• Attacks on Saudi Arabia: Iran was blamed for a series of attacks including one targeting the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry in 2019.
• Regional Cold War:Saudi Arabia and Iran – two powerful neighbors – are locked in a fierce struggle for regional dominance.
• Uprisings across the Arab world (after the Arab Spring in 2011) caused political instability throughout the region.
  • Iran and Saudi Arabia expand their influence, notably in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen,further heightening mutual suspicions.
• Proxy Wars: Iran and Saudi Arabia are not directly fighting but they are engaged in a variety of proxy wars (conflicts where they support rival sides and militias) around the region.
  • For Example,Houthi rebels in Yemen. These groups can acquire greater capabilities which can cause further instability in the region.
    • Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of supporting them.

What is the agreement?

• Agreement to restore diplomatic ties which have been severed since 2016.
• The agreement reinstates two previous accords:
  • On security cooperation signed in 2001
  • Dealing with economic, technical, scientific and cultural ties.
• This agreement ends seven years of diplomatic estrangement between the two Gulf neighbors.
• China’s Foreign Affairs Minister: He described it as a “victory for dialogue, a victory for peace”.
• The Saudi Foreign Minister said: Saudi “favored political solutions and dialogue
• Iranian Foreign minister:affirmed that his country was pursuing “the preparation of more regional steps”.

The Saudi-Iran accord:

• The agreement addresses the most serious regional confrontation
• It reduces regional tensions and puts in place the bases for further dialogue on improving relations and engaging on contentious issues.
• Meetings of Saudi and Iranian officials in Baghdad and Muscat in2021 and 2022
  • Addressing issues that divide the two countries
    • The wars in Syria and Yemen
    • Saudi concerns relating to Iran’s mobilization of Shia communities in the region
  • Arab states were prepared to pursue their interests without United States involvement.
  • not as a security-provider: The U.S.’s military failures in Iraq and Afghanistan contributed to its loss of credibility among its regional allies.

Role of China:

• China is an attractive partner.
• It has substantial energy, trade, investment and technology-related ties with West Asia
• It is the region’s largest buyer of crude oil
• It is a major trade and investment partner, and rapidly expanding its role as a technology-provider in most countries.

Importance of West Asia for China;

• West Asia is crucial for the realization of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
• Regional states being important for logistical connectivity, and investment, consultancy and contracting partnerships.
• China’s interests require a stable regional environment.

China’s new approach in West Asia:

• Two years ago: China was looking at greater political involvement with the region on the basis of “quasi-mediation diplomacy”.
  • To promote its broad commercial, diplomatic and political interests rather than its hard security concerns.
• Chinese President to his Arab interlocutors during three summits (bilateral, Gulf and Arab League) in Riyadh: The Chinese Foreign Office described the visit as “consolidating consensus on global governance, development, security and other crucial issues”.

Way Forward

• Regional security needs the revival of the nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and linked with it, the management of Israel’s aggressiveness.
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced it had seen traces of uranium enrichment by Iran to 84%
  • The IAEA Director General visited Iran:obtained an Iranian agreement to allow verification and monitoring activities by IAEA’s inspectors.
  • This has prepared the ground for renewed talks on the JCPOA.
• Saudi-Iran differences will be difficult to resolve: Saudi Arabia’s deep sense of strategic vulnerability vis-à-vis its northern neighbor and concerns that might destabilize regional states through the use of Shia proxies.
• Iran will need to play a more proactive roleto assure its neighbor of its benign intentions.
• Israel’s domestic politics, deeply polarized and dominated by the extreme right wing, is also expected to obstruct the renewal of the JCPOA and maintain a hostile posture towards Iran.
• Though serious problems remain with this accord,China has affirmed that its role in West Asian affairs is likely to get more active and substantial.
• Challenges for Indian diplomacy: India will need to engage with China in West Asia where they have a broad gamut of shared interests in energy security, free and open sea lanes, logistical connectivity, and, above all, regional stability.