Highs and Lows of India–US Convergence

General Studies Paper-2

Context: The assassination attempt on a Sikh separatist in the United States (US) has become a bone of contention between India and the US.

Overview of India and US Bilateral Relations

• Since India’s independence, ties with the United States have weathered the Cold War era distrust and estrangement over India’s nuclear program.
  • Relations have warmed in recent years and cooperation has strengthened across a range of economic and political areas.
• Bilateral Trade: The bilateral trade between the two countries has risen by 72 percent between 2017-18 and 2022-23.
  • The US accounted for 18 percent of the gross FDI inflows into India during 2021-22, ranking second behind Singapore.
• Defense and Security: India and the US have signed a troika of “foundational pacts” for deep military cooperation, beginning with the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016, followed by the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) after the first 2+2 dialogue in 2018, and then the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) in 2020.
  • In 2016, the United States elevated India to a major defense partner.
• Space: Artemis Accords signed by India established a common vision for the future of space exploration for the benefit of all humankind.
• Multilateral Cooperation: India and the United States cooperate closely in multilateral organizations and forums, including the United Nations, G20,, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and World Trade Organization.
  • Together with Australia and Japan, the United States and India convene as the Quad, a diplomatic network, to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific.
• Nuclear Cooperation: Civil Nuclear Deal was signed in 2005, under the agreement, India agreed to separate its civil and military nuclear facilities and place all its civil resources under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards.
  • In exchange, the United States agrees to work toward full civil nuclear cooperation with India.
• New initiatives: Several new initiatives have been announced like GE-HAL deal to manufacture jet engines in India and the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET), to bring revolution between the relations of the two nations.

Divergence in relations

• Conflicting positions: India’s muted criticism of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 expectedly led to some frustration in the West, raising questions over India’s credibility as a security partner.
• Limited Utility: India’s utility to the US in an Indo-Pacific conflict, such as a Chinese invasion or naval blockade of Taiwan, is likely limited.
  • In the event of US military involvement in Taiwan’s defense, India would likely avoid entanglement in such a US-China conflict.
• The US seeks greater alignment from its allies against Russia. While countries like South Korea and Australia have sent military aid to Ukraine, India is viewed by the US and the West as opportunistically buying more oil from Russia amid the war.
• Defence Relations with Russia: The US is concerned about India’s acquisition of arms like the S-400 air defense system, as it strengthens Russian power, hinders interoperability and secure communications between US and Indian forces, and prevents sharing of sensitive weapons technologies.

Concerns for India

• Dependency on China: US aid in the Russia-Ukraine war strengthens Ukraine’s defense and counter offensives, forcing Russia to rely more on China for support. This diminishes Russian autonomy and potentially its ability to honor defense agreements with India in an India-China conflict.
• The Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted the focus of the US away from China, and has, therefore, contributed to considerably eroding the strategic convergence between India and the US.
• Further, the war in the Middle East has diverted US attention away and Indo-Pacific in general and India, in particular, have suffered neglect.

Concluding remark

• The India-US ties have come a long way in the last 25 years, and it holds significant importance in shaping the global order of the 21st century. However, looking at it today, the relationship seems hitting a ceiling as the strategic glue in the foundation is coming apart.

The strategic convergence of India and the US is because of the common threat posed by China. The more the US focuses on Russia or any other adversary and India focuses on Pakistan, the more their strategic convergence weakens.