Ecological Niche Modelling

Syllabus: General Studies Paper 3

An ecological niche is the right set of environmental conditions under which an animal or plant species will thrive. A range of ecological niches can occur within an ecosystem. Biodiversity is the result of these niches being occupied by species that are uniquely suited to them. Desert plants, for example, are suited for dry, arid ecological niches because they have the ability to store water in their leaves.

• As the world’s climate undergoes change, the ability of existing species to hold on to their biogeographic niches may be altered. 
• This has an important bearing on agriculture, as practices and crop choices that have worked well for centuries may no longer be ideal.
• Factors that are altered by such changes include the availability of food and nutrients, occurrence of predators and competing species. Non-living, or abiotic factors also affect ecological niches. 
• These include temperature, amount of available light, soil moisture, and so on.

Niche Modelling

• Ecologists use such information for conservation efforts as well as for future developments. 
• Ecological niche modelling is a predictive tool for identifying new possibilities — new inhabitants for an existing habitat, or new geographical locations where a desirable plant may grow well. 
• The modelling involves the use of computer algorithms to compare data about the environment and to make forecasts about what would be ideal for a given ecological niche.

Where to grow

Researchers at the Institute of Himalayan Bioresource Technology, Palampur, Himachal Pradesh used modelling strategies to examine the economically important spice, saffron.

• Crocus sativus, the saffron plant, is propagated through underground stems called corms. 
• It is thought to be a native of Greece, and grows best under mediterranean climate conditions. 
• Today, Iran grows nearly 90% of the world’s saffron. 
• The flower of the plant has three bright crimson stigmata, which are handpicked when ready and carefully dried for the commercial saffron. 
• Besides adding flavour to food, saffron has many other uses. 
• Ancient Indian medical texts prescribed it for disorders of the nervous system. 
• More recent clinical trials have shown that the administration of 30 mg saffron every day had a significant anti-depressant effect.
• India produces 5% of the world’s saffron and historically, some of the world’s most prized saffron has been grown in old lake beds of Kashmir. 
• The temperate climate of Jammu and Kashmir is well-suited with a well-drained soil of high pH value (6.3 to 8.3), summer temperatures (when flowers develop) of around 25°C and good soil nutrient availability.

Need Niche Modelling:

• To bridge ecological considerations and economic realities and to examine economic feasibilities within the context of changing ecological scenarios.
• The study identified 4,200 sq. km. of new areas suitable for saffron cultivation in places in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, North Sikkim, Imphal, Manipur and Tamil Nadu.

Using big data

• It refers to extremely large data sets that may be analysed computationally to reveal patterns, trends, and associations, especially relating to human behaviour and interactions.
• It is characterised by 3Vs – Variety, Volume, Velocity