Drop-in Fertility Rate in India

General Studies Paper -2 

Context: Recently, a research paper from Lancet has released the forecast of fertility rate in India.

Major Findings

• Drop in Fertility Rate: India’s fertility rate has dropped from nearly2 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021. It is projected to dip further to1.29 in 2050 and 1.04 in 2100.
• Depleting Working Population:India’s total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children born per woman — is dipping irreversibly to 1.29, far lower than the replacement rate of 2.1.
  • This means a rapidly depleting working age population.
• Increase in Senior Citizens:By 2050, one in five Indians will be a senior citizen while there will be fewer younger people to take care of them.

Reasons for Decline in Fertility Rate in India

• Government Policy:Post-independence, there was a need to restrict the population. So the Family Welfare Programme were intended to convince people to have no more than two children.
  • Slowly that behaviour change started showing up.
• Decline in Infant Mortality: Due to various maternal and child health-related programmes and successful immunisation infant mortality declined in India substantially and small families became the norm.
• Rise in Female Literacy:Due to the rise of female literacy and women’s participation in the workforce the career consciousness, financial returns and economic independence have increased in India which means that women are reconsidering their options of having a second child.
• Economic Factors:Economic factors such as rising living costs, the need for dual incomes to support households, and the desire for better standards of living have contributed to smaller family sizes.

Consequences

• Rise in Elderly Population:The consequences of fertility decline will be that the share of the elderly in the population will increase sharply.
  • By 2050 the share of senior citizens in India will be more than 20 percent, that is one five people.
• Labor Force Decline: With fewer young people entering the workforce due to a declining fertility rate, this can impact economic growth and industries may face challenges in finding skilled workers.
• Healthcare Challenges: As the population ages, there is likely to be increased demand for healthcare services, this can strain healthcare systems and require adjustments in healthcare policies and infrastructure.
• Challenges for Social Security Systems:Declining fertility rates can pose challenges for social security systems, including pensions and retirement funds.

Government Initiatives

• National Health Mission (NHM):It is aimed at strengthening healthcare systems, including maternal and child health services.
  • NHM provides essential healthcare services, including antenatal care, postnatal care, family planning services, and child immunization, which indirectly influence fertility rates by promoting maternal and child health.
• Family Planning Program:India has a long-standing family planning program aimed at promoting contraceptive use and reproductive health awareness.
  • The program provides various contraceptive methods free of cost or at subsidized rates, conducts family planning counseling, and promotes awareness about the importance of family planning.
• Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY):Under the scheme financial assistance is provided to pregnant and lactating mothers for their first live birth.
  • The scheme aims to improve maternal and child health outcomes and indirectly supports fertility by promoting safe motherhood.

Way Ahead

• The challenges are still a few decades away for India but the country needs to start acting now with a comprehensive approach for the future.
• Models from Scandinavian countrieslike Sweden and Denmark, which are dealing with these challenges by supporting new families can be replicated.
  • They are providing affordable childcare, investing in healthcare and taking on large-scale male-engagement initiatives to build gender equity.
• Distribution of Household chores:For women to be able to manage careers with motherhood, it would be crucial for men to take greater responsibility for household and care work.

Economic policies that stimulate growth and job creation, alongside social security and pension reforms, will also be essential in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of declining fertility rates.