Demographic transition and change in women’s lives

General Studies Paper 1

Context

• The passage of World Population Day (July 11) is also a time to look at how India’s demographic journey has changed the lives of its citizens, particularly its women.

The Statistics

• India’s population grew from about 340 million at Independence to 1.4 billion.
• In 1941, male life expectancy was about 56 years; only 50% of boys survived to age 28.
• Today, life expectancy for men is 69 years, and nearly 50% live to see the ripe old age of 75.
• This rapid decline in mortality took parents by surprise, who no longer needed to have four children to ensure that at least two would survive, causing population growth until fertility decline caught up with the mortality decline, and the Total Fertility Rate fell from 5.7 in 1950 to 2.1 in 2019.
• Women’s childhood, adulthood, and old age have been transformed over the course of demographic transition, sometimes positively, sometimes negatively.

Change for Indian women

• As families began having fewer children, ensuring at least one son became more difficult.
• With four children, the chance of not having a son was barely 6%, but with two children, it grew to 25%.
• Social norms and patrilocal kinship patterns combined with lack of financial security reinforce a preference for sons.
• The India Human Development Survey (IHDS) found that 85% of women respondents expected to rely on their sons for old age support, while only 11% expected support from their daughters.
• Hence, parents who want to ensure that they have at least one son among their one or two child family, resorted to sex-selective abortion, and, in some cases, the neglect of sick daughters.
• Consequently, the number of girls per 100 boys, ages under five dropped from 96 to 91 between 1950 and 2019.
• With a fertility decline, active mothering occupies a smaller proportion of women’s lives, creating space for education and employment.
• While women’s educational attainment increased, with over 70% of girls enrolling in secondary education, early marriage and childbearing remain the predominant forces defining women’s lives.
• Early motherhood, perhaps, explains why lower fertility does not translate into higher labour force participation for women.
• Women need to establish secure connections to the labour market and gain work experience if they are to get skilled jobs.
• By the time peak childcare demands end, they have missed the window for occupations that require specific skills; only unskilled work is open to them.

Affect women older ages

• Demographic shifts also affect women’s lives at older ages.
• With rising life expectancy, the proportion of the female population aged 65 and above increased from 5% to 11% between 1950 and 2022, and is projected to reach 21% by 2050.
• While the proportion of older men will also increase, aging for women has unique implications.
• Women generally marry men who are older and are more likely to outlive their husbands. The 2011 Census shows that while only 18% of men above age 65 are widowed, about 55% of the women are widowed.
• For widowed women, the lack of access to savings and property results in dependence on children, mainly sons, bringing the vicious cycle of son preference to full circle.

Harnessing gender dividend

• Changing patriarchal norms may take a long time. Meanwhile, enhancing women’s access to employment and assets will reduce their reliance on sons and could break the vicious cycle of gendered disadvantage, stretching from childhood to old age.
• However, early marriage and childbearing remain central to Indian women’s lives. Hence, any efforts at improving women’s labour force participation must be accompanied by access to safe and affordable childcare.
• A World Bank evaluation based on a randomised controlled trial in Madhya Pradesh found that the expansion of Anganwadis to include a crèche led to an increase in the work participation of mothers.

Way forward

• The best solution would be to make staffing crèche an acceptable form of work under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS).
• The burgeoning self-help group movement can be harnessed to set up neighbourhood child-care centres in urban and rural areas.
• Obtaining the much hoped for demographic dividend cannot be done without fully harnessing the gender dividend.
• Improving access to childcare is an important component of achieving this.