China-Taiwan conflict

Syllabus: General Studies Paper 2

Context:

Recently, the U.S. Pacific Commander warned that China could invade Taiwan within the next six years as part of its strategy of displacing U.S. power in Asia. 

• If the rising confrontation between the United States and China erupts into a clash of arms, the likely arena may well be the Taiwan Strait. 

Historical background

• The Guomindang (KMT) forces under Chiang Kai-shek lost the 1945-49 civil war to the CCP forces under Mao Zedong. 
• Chiang retreated to the island of Taiwan and set up a regime that claimed authority over the whole of China and pledged to recover the mainland eventually.
• The CCP in turn pledged to reclaim Taiwan and achieve the final reunification of China. 
• Taiwan could not be occupied militarily by the newly established People’s Republic of China (PRC) as it became a military ally of the United States during the Korean War of 1950-53. 
• This phase came to an end with the 
  • U.S. recognising the PRC as the legitimate government of China in 1979, 
  • ending its official relationship with Taiwan and 
  • abrogating its mutual defence treaty with the island.

China-Taiwan relations

• Taiwan is the unfinished business of China’s liberation under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 1949. 
• Taiwan (Republic of China) calls itself a democratic, self-ruled country, however, according to the “One China” policy, Beijing considers Taiwan a province of Mainland China.
  • One China Policy refers to the view that there is only one state called China despite the existence of two governments that claim to be China. 
  • As a policy it means that countries seeking diplomatic relations with China should sever the ties with the ‘Republic of China’ – Taiwan – and vice versa.
• China has promised a high degree of autonomy to the island under the “one country two systems” formula first applied to Hong Kong after its reversion to Chinese sovereignty in 1997. 
  • According to this formula, Hong Kong would retain its free market system and its political and judicial institutions and processes for a period of 50 years, thus enabling an extended and gradual transition. 
  • The same was promised to Taiwan, but with the added assurance that it could also retain its armed forces during the transition period.

Economic links between China and Taiwan:

• Between 1991 and 2020, the stock of Taiwanese capital invested in China reached U.S. $188.5 billion and bilateral trade in 2019 was U.S. $150 billion, about 15% of Taiwan’s GDP.
• By contrast the stock of Chinese capital invested in Taiwan is barely U.S. $2.4 billion although investments through Hong Kong may be considerable.
• China hopes that the considerable economic benefits that Taiwan business and industry enjoy would weaken opposition to unification. 
• China is capable of inflicting acute economic pain on Taiwan through coercive policies if the island demands independence.

Current tensions between Taiwan and China

• China, is committed to pursuing peaceful unification but retains the right to use force to achieve the objective. 
• The PRC has pursued a typical carrot and stick policy to achieve the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland. 
• The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan favours independence from China.
  • Ever since the DPP under Tsai Ing-wen won the presidential elections in 2016, China has resorted to a series of hostile actions against the island, which include economic pressures and military threats. 
  • The prospects for peaceful unification have diminished. 
  • Sentiment in Taiwan in favour of independent status has increased. 
• The escalating military threats against Taiwan, through daily violations of its air defence identification zone (ADIZ) and aggressive naval manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait, are aimed at stopping any move towards independence and its closer military relationship with the U.S.

US policy

• The U.S. has declared that it will “maintain the ability to come to Taiwan’s defence” while not committing itself to do so. This is the policy of “strategic ambiguity”. 
• While the U.S. does not support a declaration of independence by Taiwan, it has gradually reversed the policy of avoiding official-level engagements with the Taiwan government. 
• In a new incident last week, a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine reportedly ran into an “unidentified object” while in the South China Sea. 
• The U.S. abides by the “Taiwan agreement”, which means the U.S. would not overturn its one China policy.
• Impact of alliances

• The recent crystallisation of the Quad, of which India is a part, and the announcement of the Australia-U.K.-U.S. alliance, AUKUS, may act as a deterrent against Chinese moves on Taiwan.
• But they may equally propel China to advance the unification agenda before the balance changes against it in the Indo-Pacific.

For these reasons, Taiwan is emerging as a potential trigger point for a clash of arms between the U.S. and China.In pursuing its Indo-Pacific strategy, India would do well to keep these possible scenarios in mind.

The Hindu Link:

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-taiwan-flashpoint-in-the-indo-pacific/article36933319.ece

Question: Write a brief history of China-Taiwan conflict?