ANTI SATELLITE TESTS

November 22, 2021

Syllabus: General Studies Paper 3

Context:

On 16 November, Russia destroyed one of its old satellites by causing a tail-on collision with an ASAT rocket it had fired, at an altitude slightly higher than that of the International and Chinese space stations. The thousands of pieces of debris that resulted now pose a risk to space-station astronauts, other spacecraft that occupy low-earth orbits and launch vehicles destined for higher orbits.

Junk from the Russian test is expected to intersect with the International Space Station’s (ISS) orbit 31 times a day, before spreading out further.
Space debris moves faster than bullets and even tiny bits have enough kinetic energy to severely damage spacecraft.
The lower the elevation of the fragments from the earth, the sooner the junk will fall back upon the planet and burn up in the atmosphere.
Debris at higher altitudes can remain in space for years and decades before falling down.
Space is vast, but the probability of collision increases with the number of objects in orbit.

INDIA’S ANTI SATELLITE TEST: MISSION SHAKTI

India in 2019 became the fourth country after US, Russia and China to acquire the capability of space warfare after completing its first successful attempt at shooting a satellite in Low Earth orbit
Mission Shakti is a joint indigenous program of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) to develop high potent anti-satellite weapons (ASAT)
It has propelled India to the coveted space super bar league and now India will have the capability to decimate satellites for military and strategic purposes.
The ASAT missiles can be sea, air or land-based

SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA

The strategic dimension of the exercise

Earlier outer space was the preserve of great powers reflecting the bipolar dynamics of the cold war.
However, in 21st-century space activities reflect the ongoing global power transitions particularly with the rise of China and India
Satellites in outer space in a below range of functions influencing strategic decisions like surveillance, reconnaissance, communication, navigation, targeting etc . Thus, the use of weapons in space marks a distinct transformation

Security concerns

China joined the ASAT club in 2007, this also prompted the United States to conduct a reciprocal test in 2008. Hence, India was catalysed for the establishment of integrated space cells for space security in India
China and India are perennial adversaries and political, territorial and strategic animosities continue to endure
The use of nuclear arsenal comes under heavy cost in the case of Pakistan since it is a terrestrial power
Pakistan presumes that no first use policy of India’s nuclear regime gives it an advantage but with the development of anti-satellite capabilities India would be in a position to destroy any incoming Pakistani Nuclear missile

Network-centric warfare

Outer space is integral to contemporary military operations in irreversible and multiple ways.
Network-centric warfare implies Synergy among soldiers,weapons , commanders and support systems at all levels which is primarily achieved through satellite communication and satellite navigation

CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH ANTI SATELLITE TESTS

The concerns are twofold-

Such tests are detrimental to space security
A state demonstrating its capabilities can spur reactionary tests from other nations
The geopolitical aspect of destructive ASAT testing, thus, encourages further displays and development of offensive technology
The physical aspect of destructive ASAT testing also amplifies the critical issue that space debris constitutes a threat to states’ space systems.
They can produce adverse changes in the space environment.
Kessler Syndrome- due to the potential cascading effect of each of these individual pieces of debris to create further debris by colliding with each other
While the debris from some tests may have deorbited, numerous pieces continue to pose a threat

Data

In February 2020, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimated there are approximately 34 000 pieces of space debris larger than 10 centimetres, 900 000 objects between 1 cm and 10 cm and 128 million objects between 1 millimetre and 1 cm.
42 Collisions have been recorded between space debris and both active and defunct space objects.

INTERNATIONAL INSTRUMENTS

The UN Outer Space Treaty of 1967

The 1967 Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, was the first binding multilateral space treaty and has the objective of ensuring the peaceful use and shared benefits of outer space amongst all nations

Liability Convention

Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (1972). There are two proposed liability schemes under the convention.

The first scheme would apply in a situation in which the debris from an ASAT test damages a passing flight.
The second envisaged situation is one wherein the debris damages another state’s space object.

International instruments: Non-binding and voluntary

Political dynamics in the space arena have evolved since the space treaties were enacted. At the time, the Soviet Union and the USA were the dominant space powers, and they pursued negotiations of the treaties
To ensure the shared and peaceful use of the space domain. Other states have, however, also developed significant spacefaring capabilities since the 1960s. These include China, France, India and the United Kingdom.

Failure of UN Regulations

The UN has made several attempts to introduce new international regulations.
In 1981 the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on the ‘prevention of an arms race in outer space (PAROS)
This resolution continues to be adopted annually, but there is little substantive progress on concrete measures.
The UN also constituted Groups of Governmental Experts (GGEs) in 1993 and 2013 to study transparency and confidence-building measures in outer space.
However, the UN Conference on Disarmament has since struggled to develop further measures under PAROS. Progress is impeded by two opposing views.
Some states, notably China and Russia, insist on a commitment in the form of a binding treaty (first proposed in 2008), while the USA has firmly advocated for a non-binding instrument

WAY FORWARD

Adopt an inclusive approach

Space security is a highly sensitive issue given the dual-use nature of space, rising competition for commercial activity and geopolitical tensions.
States can respond negatively to one-sided framing of a new measure like developing countries that are just starting their space programmes
By adopting an inclusive approach, the new measure can go a long way in assuring non-Western states that dialogue for space security can be conducted on equal footing, rather than focus exclusively on the inputs of traditional space powers

Clarify enforceability

A new policy should be clear on the enforceability of the instrument (i.e. binding or non-binding).
A new binding multilateral space law instrument appears unlikely despite being desirable. Thus, the new measure would have to be a ‘soft’ law, one that is voluntary for states.
If the instrument is voluntary, it will nonetheless have the ability to eventually crystallize into a binding source of customary law if it is complied with by enough countries.

Emphasis on collective benefits

Every piece of debris generated from an ASAT test poses a threat to other users’ space objects in orbit.
The rise of mega-constellations of satellites from companies such as SpaceX, OneWeb and Amazon mean higher use of LEO. There must be more focus on this aspect of anti-satellite tests

Enabling transparency and building trust

There is a great deal of mistrust in relations between states with space capabilities; states that believe an adversarial state is buttressing its own capabilities are likely to prioritize developing their own offensive capabilities

The Live mint Link: https://www.livemint.com/opinion/columns/we-should-support-a-global-ban-on-destructive-anti-satellite-tests-11637512047924.html

Question: Will the Mission Shakti test spur space weaponization? Is India entering into an arms race in outer space? What is the international law on weapons in outer space?