A Taliban-led Afghanistan and the Chinese BRI

Syllabus: General Studies Paper 2

Context:

China is engaging with the Taliban, with an eye to complete the new Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investment. And a Chinese presence in Afghanistan with an all-weather ally Pakistan is a concern for India.

• In fact, the return of the Taliban is seen as a victory of Chinese diplomacy and a debacle for the United States.

 Poor economic condition of Afghanistan

• For an economy driven by the opium trade and ruled by tribal leaders, the new normal is bound to be governed by instability, fighting groups.
• Since 2001, the U.S. has spent $2.26 trillion, out of which $1.53 trillion was spent on defence. 
• The Afghan economy did not flourish, with 90% of its population still living below the poverty line, with less than $2 a day. 
• But then Afghanistan has a few other valuable things like rare-earth metals and huge deposits of copper. The Chinese have the technology to excavate them. 
• Without Afghanistan, the bulk of Chinese investment in the China-Pakistan corridor will be at risk.

Afghanistan- a crucial link in the BRI

• The Chinese want to mimic the same strategies in the case of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
• Success in these two countries would imply that China will be able to bring together a large part of the Indian Ocean littoral and Eurasia through high speed rail lines, pipelines, and maritime linkages. 
• The idea of connecting to the rest of the world stems from China’s aspiration to get out of manufacturing, go up the global value chains, and start focusing on product designing and innovation. 

Challenge for BRI:

• Terrorism and unstability:  The recent suicide attacks in Kabul and Gwadar are a pointer and may even indicate the resurgence of terrorist groups such as al Qaeda, Daesh, and the Islamic State. 
  • No businesses can flourish in the presence of terrorism.
  • The Taliban ruling groups are far from united, making it impossible to make any reliable domestic and international policy predictions. 
  • The Taliban supports the East Turkestan Islamic Movement — a militant group active in the Uighur province of China. 
• The dependence on opium export makes Afghanistan vulnerable to world mafias and corruption. 
• Pakistan is unable to repay a China-funded energy project, built under the BRI. The economy of Pakistan faltered because of dynastic politics and corruption. 
• Western Sanctions: The United States government, in addition to halting cash shipments, has frozen Afghan assets. 
  • Probable European and American decisions to block or sanction trade from Afghanistan will impact BRI. 
  • The enormous markets controlled by the western powers are the most lucrative for China. 
  • Given the unfriendly relations between the U.S. and China, any excuse will basically be picked up and used by the White House to stop trade along the BRI. 
  • Hence, the cash flow into the BRI will constantly face a risk of interruption. 

In a game of chess, the U.S. move of vacating Afghanistan may in fact prove costly for China. There are good reasons to believe that the return of the Taliban in Kabul will spell gloom and doom for the Chinese. Embargoes, rebellions, factional wars, will be the likely events in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. These issues will spread to Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Turkey, and other essential rings in the BRI chain.

The Hindu Link:

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/a-taliban-led-afghanistan-and-the-chinese-conundrum/article36327388.ece

Question: China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will face trouble in the wake of a troubled Afghanistan. Comment.