The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 

Syllabus: General Studies Paper 3

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) pledged by countries to arrest climate change are insufficient, noted a new report released by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

• Cumulative CO2 emissions in 2020-2030, based on the latest NDCs, would likely use up 86 per cent of the remaining carbon budget, according to the new NDC Synthesis Report.
• The UNFCCC’s synthesis report is an annual summary of climate commitments made by countries and their impact on global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 
• These commitments known as Nationally Determined Contributions were made by countries who signed on to the Paris Agreement to address climate change.
• The latest iteration of the report analyses 166 NDCs communicated to the UNFCCC.
• Only 24 countries submitted new or updated NDCs after COP 26.

India

• India submitted its upwardly revised NDC in August, extending two of its previous NDC goals.
• India now stands committed to reducing emissions intensity of its GDP by 45 per cent by 2030 from its 2005 levels, according to the updated NDC.
• The country will also target about 50 per cent of cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030.
• Global emissions must amount to only 31 GtCO2e in 2030 (43 per cent lower in 2030 compared to 2019) to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees celcius above pre-industrial levels, according to the IPCC.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

• • ‘Panchamrit’ announced at COP 26
  • net-zero by 2070
  • To reduce Emissions Intensity of its GDP by 45 percent by 2030
  • LIFE’– ‘Lifestyle for Environment’

• Principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC)

Concerns

• Currently, we are on track for about 2.5°C of temperature rise by 2100, from a possible range of 2.1°C to 2.9°C.
• Most worrying is the impact on the carbon budget — a biophysical threshold of CO2 that can be emitted to prevent global average temperatures from rising above a certain level.
• Carbon budgets are constructed on the premise that there is a near-linear relationship between rising global temperatures and the level of cumulative atmospheric CO2.
• Breaching 1.5°C would lead to irreversible damage to vital planetary features such as the Greenland Ice Sheet, the west Antarctic Ice Sheet and tropical coral reefs. It can lead to more floods, droughts, heat, disease, storms.

Long-term low-emission development strategies (LT-LEDS)

• A second report published today by the UNFCCC summarises 53 long-term emission reduction plans submitted by countries. 
• These plans are known as long-term low-emission development strategies (LT-LEDS).
• These plans typically follow the announcement of a long-term target, such as net zero emissions by 2050 or 2070. 
• Some 87 per cent of these plans communicated 2050 as a date along with a quantifiable long-term mitigation goal. 
• Most NDCs (92 per cent) in the NDC Synthesis report are dated to 2030.
• LT-LEDS are typically broader in scope than NDCs and incorporate developmental goals as well as required levels of investment and government expenditure, said the LT-LEDS Synthesis report.
• The UNFCCC estimates the total emissions of countries who submitted LT-LEDS to be 10.8 GtCO2e, 68 per cent lower than 2019 levels. 
• Alignment between NDCs and LT-LEDS is still unclear only 8 per cent of countries mentioned that their NDCs are aligned with their LT-LEDS.