India’s Population at Crossroads, not a Crisis: Population Foundation of India

General Studies Paper-3

Context

On 2025 World Population Day (July 11), the Population Foundation of India emphasized that India’s real challenge lies not in population size, but in justice, gender equity, and investing in human potential.

Key Takeaways

• Shift the focus to reproductive rights, gender equality, and inclusive growth.
• Empower youth, especially young women, to make informed choices about their lives and families.
• View the demographic journey as an opportunity, not a threat—invest in education, healthcare, and skills.

India’s Demographic Dividend

• Demographic Dividend: It refers to the economic growth potential that results from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64 years old) is larger than the non-working-age population (14 or younger and 65 or older).
  • The change in age structure is typically brought on by a decline in fertility and mortality rates.
• India’s Demographic Dividend: India, with its large and young population, is currently experiencing a demographic dividend.
  • India is expected to add another 183 million people to the working-age group between 2020 and 2050.
  • The dividend would peak around 2041 (when the working age population would be 59% of India’s population) and is expected to last until 2055.

Data on India’s Ageing Population

• As per the India Ageing Report 2023, the share of population over the age of 60 years is projected to increase from 10.5% in 2022 to 20.8% in 2050.
• By the end of the century, the elderly will constitute over 36% of the total population of the country.
• 80+Years Population: The population of people aged 80+ years will grow at a rate of around 279% between 2022 and 2050, with a predominance of widowed and highly dependent very old women.

Challenges India Face

• Unemployment: For the demographic dividend to work, the country must provide productive employment to the 7-8 million youths that join the labourforce every year.
  • In 2022, the unemployment rate among graduates was around 29%, while for those who cannot read and write, it was just 3.4%.
• Education and Skill Gap: Over two-fifths of the country’s youths are educated below the secondary level and just 4% have access to vocational training.
• Gender Inequality: Women’s participation in the workforce remains relatively low, limiting the overall potential of the economy.
• Jobless Growth: Economic growth hasn’t created proportional employment opportunities.
  • Over 80% of India’s workforce is in the informal sector, lacking security and benefits.
  • Emerging technologies are reducing demand for low-skilled labour.
• Mental Health Neglect: Youth face rising issues of depression, anxiety, and stress without adequate support systems.
• Regional Imbalances: Southern states are ageing faster, while northern states have younger populations but weaker infrastructure.
  • Youth from lagging regions migrate to urban centres, causing stress on city infrastructure and leading to underemployment.

Measures

• Skill Development: Programs like the Skill India Mission aim to provide training and certification to millions of youth, enhancing their employability in various sectors.
• Education Reforms: Efforts to improve primary and secondary education quality, by introducing new Education Policy 2020.
• Make in India & Atmanirbhar Bharat: These initiatives focus on boosting domestic manufacturing, creating jobs, and enhancing industrial capacity to absorb the growing workforce.
• Start-up Ecosystem: The Startup India campaign encourages entrepreneurship, providing support to young innovators and creating new employment opportunities.
• Digital Infrastructure: Expanding internet access and digital literacy through programs like Digital India to create opportunities for youth in the technology and digital sectors.
• Healthcare Improvements: Programs like Ayushman Bharat aim to improve healthcare access and outcomes.