UNFPA State of World Population 2025

General Studies Paper-3

Context: India’s population has reached an estimated 146.39 crore by April 2025, according to the United Nations report titled “State of the World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis.”

India’s Status as per the 2025 Report

• Current Population Status: India is the world’s most populous country with 146.39 crore people, surpassing China (141.61 crore).
  • The population is expected to peak at 170 crore before beginning to decline in approximately 40 years.
• Decline in Fertility Rate: TFR is now 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1.
  • Among the states that had fertility rates higher than national average were Bihar (2.98), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26), and Manipur (2.2).
• Demographic Composition:
  • Working-age population (15–64 years): 68%
  • Children (0–14 years): 24%
  • Youth (10–24 years): 26%
  • Elderly (65+ years): 7% (expected to rise)

What is the Real Fertility Crisis?

• The real fertility crisis lies not in overpopulation or underpopulation, but in the inability of individuals to achieve their reproductive goals.
• It calls for reproductive agency—the freedom to make informed choices regarding sex, contraception, and family planning.

Reasons for Population Decline

• Access to Reproductive Healthcare: Contraceptive use and maternal health services have expanded.
• Female Education & Empowerment: Increased female literacy and workforce participation delay childbirth.
• Urbanization: Urban lifestyles reduce family size due to cost and space constraints.
• Economic Uncertainty: Rising cost of living and job instability discourage large families.

Significance of the Population decline

• Population Stabilization: A TFR of 2.0 indicates India is approaching population stabilization, which can ease pressure on natural resources, public services, and the environment.
• Improved Maternal health: Fewer childbirths per woman, coupled with delayed age of marriage, lead to reduced maternal mortality, better child care, and healthier families.
• Women Empowerment: Lower fertility rates reflect higher education levels, workforce participation, and greater autonomy among women, leading to better social and economic outcomes.

What are the concerns?

• Ageing Population: A rise in the elderly population will increase the dependency on the working population, demanding increased focus on pension, healthcare, and social welfare systems.
• Potential for Skewed Sex Ratios: In certain areas, fertility reduction without tackling gender bias can exacerbate sex-selective practices, leading to imbalanced sex ratios.
• Demographic Imbalance: States with vast fertility differences, potentially leading to interstate migration, cultural shifts, and resource strain in low-TFR states.

Concluding remarks

• India stands at a demographic crossroads. The decline in fertility is a testament to social progress in education, healthcare, and gender empowerment.
• However, as the focus shifts from population control to reproductive rights and demographic balance, India must prepare for a future that balances economic productivity, social support systems, and individual reproductive choices.