A strategy for India in a world that is adrift

Syllabus: General Studies Paper 2

Context:

The lack of a coherent international response to the COVID-19 pandemic is proof of an absence of international order and of the ineffectiveness of multilateral institutions. 

Changing world order

• The following factors are changing the dynamics of the global order:
  • Stagnation in the global and Indian economies 
  • Retreat from globalisation
  • the regionalisation of trade, 
  • a shifting balance of power, 
  • the rise of China and others, and 
  • structural China-United States strategic rivalry 
  • Inequality between and within states has bred a narrow nationalism

After Effects of COVID-19 crisis:

Crumbling world order

• UN’s insignificance: The United Nations Security Council took so long to meet (that too inconclusively) to discuss the pandemic is a ringing testimony to the UN’s insignificance.
• Ineffective regional initiatives: For example Prime Minister’s SAARC initiative, curiously resurrecting a practically dead institution, was short-lived. 
  • The EU was clueless when the virus spread like wildfire in Europe. Its member states turned inward for solutions: self-help, not regional coordination.
  • Reason for failure of global governance: The global institutional framework is unrepresentative, a pawn in the hands of the great powers, cash-strapped, and its agenda is focused on high-table security issues. 

More powerful China

• China appeared to use its manufacturing power to its geopolitical advantage. Beijing has offered medical aid and expertise to those in need; 
• This will aid Beijing’s claims to global leadership, push Huawei 5G trials as a side bargain, and showcase how the Belt and Road Initiative is the future of global connectivity. 
• Weakened economic globalisation: Economists are warning of a global recession.The COVID-19 shock will further feed states’ protectionist tendencies fueled by hypernationalism. 

We are entering a new polarised information age, and face ecological crises of climate change, an existential threat.  The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated some of these changes and transformed others. 

Asia as the nucleus

• All the above factors have shifted the geopolitical and economic centres of gravity from the Atlantic to Asia.
• Asia is the center of geopolitical rivalries, and the U.S. remains the most formidable power, though its relative power is declining. 
• China sees a window of opportunity but is acting in a hurry.
• China’s crowded geography constrains her both on land and at sea but we can expect her profile and power to continue expanding, particularly in our neighbourhood. 
• As neighbours and in the present situation, a mix of confrontation and cooperation is likely to continue to mark India’s relations with China.
• There is very little possibility of conventional conflict between the great powers in Asia, though other forms and levels of violence and contention in the international system will rise, with Taiwan a special case.

Challenges and opportunities for India

• Increasing security congruence with the U.S. could enable growing cooperation in fields significant for India’s transformation: energy, trade, investment, education and health. 
• Other areas in which India and the U.S. could increase cooperation are: climate change and energy, on tech solutions for renewable energy, and on digital cooperation. 
• Building broader coalitions in the developing world on issues of common interest. This is the time of transition when new global standards and norms are being developed, particularly in the digital space. India can and must be present at the creation. 
• India should create a Maritime Commission, a Bay of Bengal Initiative with partner countries, and cooperate with South East Asia in maritime security, cybersecurity and counter-terrorism. We should aim for multipolarity in Asia.
• The core strategic principles in Non-Alignment 2.0 are still relevant: independent judgement, developing our capacities, and creating an equitable and enabling international order for India’s transformation. 
• Preserving India’s strategic autonomy: One productive way to do so would be through issue-based coalitions including different actors, depending on who has an interest and capability.
• Revive SAARC: India could be the primary source of both prosperity and security in the neighbourhood — the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean Region. It can be done through SAARC.
• The over securitisation (militarization) of policy towards our neighbours has hurt trade, criminalised our borders, and enabled the large-scale entry of Chinese goods destroying local industry in the northeast. 
• While lessening dependence on China, and seeking external balancing, our primary effort has to concentrate on self-strengthening. If there is one country which in terms of its size, population, economic potential, scientific and technological capabilities can match or even surpass China, it is India.
• Economic policy must match political and strategic engagement: Globalisation has been central to India’s growth. 
• A more active regional and international role for India is incompatible with a low Indian global trade.
• Self-reliance in today’s world and technologies can only be realised as part of the global economy. 
• National unity: We should affirm our own strength and historic national identity.

In sum, India’s self-strengthening is an absolutely essential precondition as also safeguarding the foundational sources of its international influence. We cannot separate our domestic trajectory from the external course we need to pursue to transform India into a strong, secure and prosperous country.

The Hindu Link:
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-strategy-for-india-in-a-world-that-is-adrift/article36867249.ece