Even with ‘moderate emissions’, India’s heat is set to get worse

General Studies Paper 1

Context: The climate crisis is no longer a distant event that might happen in the future.

Indications of the impending climate crisis:

• Temperatures are rising, rainfall patterns are shifting, and extreme events such as record-high temperatures, etc.
• For example,the month of February (this year) in India was the hottest since 1901.
• According to a 2021 study (The Lancet), more than five million people died(between 2000-2019) on average each year worldwide because of extreme temperatures.
• The IPCC 6th Assessment Report states that extreme heat events will grow with increasing global warming.

The case of India:

• A study shows that the temperature in India has been steadily increasing during both summer and winter.
• The recorded increase in maximum and minimum temperature over 30 years (1990-2019) is up to 9º C and 0.5º C, respectively.

 Impact of increasing heat:

• A cause of suffering and death in extreme cases.
• It undermines systems such as agriculture and other climate-sensitive sectors that support the livelihoods and well-being of people.

Climate projections for the districts of India (2021-2050):

• The summer maximum temperature will increase(between 2º C – 3.5º C) even under a ‘moderate emissions’ scenario.
• Even winter minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 0.5º C to 3.5º C in the future.
• The diurnal temperature range (DTR – variation between high and low air temperature during a single day) is also changing.
  • A Department of Science and Technology study (2020) shows an asymmetric increase in the minimum temperature compared to the maximum.
• This will, in turn, increase the risk of heat stress → drought, deteriorating soil quality, crop failure, job loss, higher migration, morbidity, and mortality → can affect ecological systems, and the carbon economy.
• According to a 2019 ILO report, India is expected to lose 5.8% of working hours in 2030 due to heat stress.

Way ahead:

• Implement the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction through improved early warning systems, public awareness, and formulation of heat action plans.
• Prepare district-level heat hotspot maps to design long-term measures to reduce deaths due to extreme heat.

Best practices: Innovative strategies such as –

• Emergency cooling centres (similar to the ones in Toronto and Paris);
• Survival guides that are strategically displayed to survive extreme heat or heat waves (like in Athens);
• White roofs(Los Angeles);
• Green rooftops (Rotterdam);
• Self-shading tower blocks (Abu Dhabi); and
• Green corridors (Medellin).