India’s population gap over China to widen further, shows data

General Studies Paper 1

• Content: India is expected to cross China and become the world’s most populous country in April this year.

Population projections for India and China:

• According to United Nations Population Division data, India will surpass China in 2023 by 3 million people and the gap will only widen with time.
• The two countries have accounted for around 36% of the world’s population since the 1950s. In 2022, it was 35.6% and is estimated to be 5% in 2023. By 2100, India and China will account for 22.2% of the world’s population.

What does the statistics say about the demographic dividend in India?

• According to an analysis by Pew Research Center, roughly one-in-five people globally who are under the age of 25 live in India.
• Those below 25 years of age accounted for 13% share in India’s total population in 1950. By July 2023, it will be 42.7%.
• The share of those in the age group of 25-64 will be 2% by July 2023. However, the share is projected to change by 2100. Share of those below 25 years of age will further decline to 23.9%. The share of those in the age group of 25-64 will rise to 46.3%.

What does the statistics say about fertility rate in India?

• India’s total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.73compared to a global rate of 4.86 in 1950.
• In 2022, India’s rate was estimated to be 2.01while the global rate is 2.31. China’s TFR declined from 5.81 in 1950 to 1.18 in 2022.
• Data from the National Family Health Survey shows that the fertility rate in urban India has fallen from 2.06 in 2005-06 to 1.63 in 2019-21. The decline in rural India was from 2.98 to 2.14 in the same period.

Migration in India:

• In 2022, more than 487,000 people migrated from India. As per the UN projections, the country is likely to face net negative migration till 2100.
• Pew Research Center highlights that India’s net migration has not always been negative. In 2016, India gained an estimated 68,000 people due to migration.

India also recorded increases in net migration on several occasions in the second half of the 20th century.