Ukraine’s War Lessons

General Studies Paper 2

Context

• What started off as a minor conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has now snowballed into a de facto war between Russia and the collective West within the borders of Ukraine.
• His limited war machine is under enormous pressure, but he can’t retreat unless he is ready to accept political and geopolitical costs.
• There is still a lack of clarity and uncertainty on Russia’s objectives in Ukraine and what it will do next to meet them.

Russia’s Aura has Dipped

• Putin disrupted Georgia’s ambition to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
• He made forays into West Asia neutralizing Israel and Turkey, both American allies.
• He took Crimea without a fight and turned Russia again into an energy superpower.
• But that aura has slipped as Russia’s superior troops have been struggling to cope with battlefield setbacks in Ukraine.

A New World

• After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the U.S. had established a de facto unilateral hierarchy, which is rare in international relations.
• Global politics has historically been dominated by multiple pillars.
• But the U.S. was at the pinnacle of its power in the 1990s.
• In recent years, however, there have been signs of the passing of American unilateralism.
• America’s wars in the Muslim world did not proceed as Washington had expected.
• As the U.S. got stuck in Afghanistan and Iraq, Russia became more aggressive, Iran more defiant, and China more powerful.
• Russia’s intervention in Georgia and its annexation of Crimea.
• Iran’s growing militancy in West Asia
• America’s defeat in Afghanistan.
• These were some signs of a shift in the global order

Essential Anarchy

• After a brief period of unilateral hierarchy, the world is returning to, what Realists call, its essential anarchy.
• In which great powers compete for maximizing their powers.
• But it is not clear what kind of an order, if an order emerges at all, will replace American unilateralism.
• The U.S. seems to have realised that the world has changed.

Approach Pursued by USA

• USA has taken pains to keep the Western alliance together.
• It wants a coalition of democracies against dictatorships.
• It admits that the ‘rules-based order’ faces systemic challenges from Russia and China.
• But at the same time, it doesn’t want a direct conflict with Russia
• It seeks to bleed Russia out in Ukraine, an approach that U.S. President Ronald Reagan had towards the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.

Misadventure of Great Powers

• The U.S. intervention in Vietnam, its invasion of Afghanistan, and the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan are some of the best examples of great powers getting stuck in smaller theatres.
• But historical examples do not deter offensive nations.
• When Mr. Putin ordered his special military operation, it is possible that he expected quick results.
• But he miscalculated the power of Ukrainian nationalism.
• What Ukraine had to do was to survive the initial Russian thrust.
• When that was achieved, it opened avenues for Russia’s rivals in the West to start supplying Ukraine with money.
• Weapons including advanced rocket systems and artillery , intelligence and mercenaries.
• If the war was left to Russia and Ukraine, the former would have, in theory, secured a victory.

China’s Takeaway

• There were enhanced tensions between China and the U.S. over Taiwan last year. U.S. President Joe Biden has repeatedly said that the U.S. would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack from China.
• This signalled a shift in Washington’s policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’.
• One argument in American strategic circles is that defeating Russia in Ukraine would discourage Chinese President Xi Jinping from making any adventurous move towards Taiwan.
• If Russia gets away with Ukraine, that will embolden Mr. Xi, they argue.

On The Flip Side

• Ukraine war and the West’s collective pursuit to punish Russia has driven the giant bear deeper into the embrace of the Chinese dragon.
• If, during the Cold War, the U.S. strove to exploit the divisions between the Soviet Union and China
• China and Russia, under Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin, respectively, are boasting of their ‘no limits’ relationship today.
• One of the reasons for the U.S. pivot from West Asia and Afghanistan was to focus its resources on tackling the rise of China.

Conclusion

• China is the only revisionist power with the capabilities to challenge the ‘rules- based order.
• S. last year got dragged more and more into Europe and spent enormous resources on Ukraine.
• China would like to see the U.S. being distracted in Europe while it strengthens its ties with Russia and spreads its influence elsewhere.
• For USA it would be appropriate to think whether the time, resources and energy it is spending on Ukraine is worth it?